February 28, 2005
A Fundamental Choice
I’ve blogged far too much about Social Security. But it’s an addiction. How we handle Social Security is probably, tied with the War on Terror, the most important long-term question that we as a country are facing right now. Some people have said there is no crisis. I think personally that if you look at the lies we’ve been told about Social Security, the crisis isn’t waiting for 2018 or 2042, it’s already started.
The real question is what we’re going to do about it. Demographics don’t lie, we’re not going to grow our economy out of this problem. So we’re faced with a couple of options. In all honesty, they boil down to three possible choices: increase revenue, decrease benefits, or scrap the system for something completely different.
1) Deny there’s a problem and hope American’s don’t revolt later: This, of course, is the current Democratic plan. And, it just might work. We’ll be forced to ever increase taxes, with the only alternative being drastic benefit cuts. After all, in 20 years when the demographics get really ugly, they’ll actually be able to legitimately claim that anyone trying to change the system is trying to kick Granny down the stairs. That is, if the Democrats are still around.
2) Modify it slightly: This is the easy solution. Changing benefit schedules, maybe a modification to the retirement age, etc. This is not going to cut it. It might delay the problems, but as life expectancy increases and birth rates decline, it will keep the program specifically at subsistence levels for eternity. Costs will remain high and benefits remain low, and that’s bad for both rich and poor.
3) Private Accounts: I’ve been slowly feeling a draft as I think more and more about this. If done properly, private accounts could be a tremendous wealth-generating machine. But I see two serious problems with this. First, the government is not known for doing ANYTHING properly. I keep bringing up references to government programs when I argue against socialized medicine, because the government doesn’t have feedback loops that business has to ensure efficiency. Knowing our government, any privatized Social Security system will be overburdened by administration costs, bureaucratic red tape and over-regulation, lack of choice, and political meddling. If they can’t do it right, it’s worse than doing nothing at all. Second, this will bring a MAJOR influx of federally controlled money into the market. With federal money comes federal regulation, and federal regulation of the market is the Democrat’s wet dream. Could the government ruin both Social Security and the stock market? And if government money is used without proper diversification, will its effect distort the market too much? Americans are becoming more and more investment-savvy on their own, perhaps we should keep this out of the federal purview? As a libertarian, I can no longer support what would be one of the greatest federal expansion of authority in our time.
4) Means-testing: I think this may be the best option that we have. I mentioned that we’re forced either increasing revenue or decreasing benefits. Increasing revenue means increasing taxes. That’s not a problem to the class-warfare left, especially since the first thing to go will be the payroll tax salary cap. The problem, however, lies with stealing the money that upper-income earners are now investing to pay now-rich retired people. Let’s cut, or avoid increasing, payroll taxes now and not pay rich people later. Social Security is an insurance program. If we’re going to insure against something, let’s insure against poverty, not old age. According to the AARP, Social Security keeps about 48% of the elderly out of poverty. So if you means-test the program, you can save over half the cost. It avoids the problem of increased taxes dragging on the economy, and could even reduce the tax burden, spurring some added economic growth, and allowing people to save for their own retirement. In addition, if we increased the retirement age slightly for the guaranteed benefit to account for increased life expectancy and improved senior health, we could do even better. Assuming we stick with this option, we may even be able to increase the benefit to old folks facing poverty, and ensure that their retirement is better than the mere subsistence-level stipend they currently receive.
No matter what we do, someone has to get the short end of the stick to fix this problem. With option 1, future workers get the short end. They’re the engine of our economy, and increasing their taxes worsen their ability to invest, hurting themselves and the general economy. Option 2 screws everyone equally, and does nothing to improve the situation. Option 3 screws the economy by giving the government too much of a hand. Option 4 screws the old rich folks. The one group that legitimately does not need the money would cease to get it. Young workers who don’t believe they’ll ever get Social Security aren’t as angry, and might save a little in taxes, and the left always loves taking away from the rich, so they shouldn’t have a problem with it either. All parties are served, except the group that doesn’t need it. Sounds like a winner to me!
Bringing it all Together
Lebanese Government Resigns Amid Protests
Egypt moves to hold free elections
Saudis enthusiastic about historic elections
Palestinian Cabinet excludes Arafat’s cadre
Of course, it is possible this would have happened without the US going into Afghanistan and Iraq, but I can’t say it’s all that likely.
I’m just sayin’…
In Other News, Winter is Cold
Personal Incomes See Biggest Dip in Decade
What a headline. That sounds pretty bad, doesn’t it… They go on to say:
Personal incomes which had been bolstered by a large stock dividend payment in December plunged 2.3 percent in January, the sharpest decline in more than a decade. Consumer spending was flat, the government reported Monday.
The Commerce Department said the sharp January drop in incomes followed a record 3.7 percent jump in incomes in December with both months heavily influenced by a $3 per share dividend payment that computer software giant Microsoft made on Dec. 2.
…
Without the huge $32 billion dividend payment by Microsoft, personal incomes would have shown steadier gains of 0.6 percent in December and 0.5 percent in January.
So basically what they’re saying is, if I get a big bonus or something at work, and the next month my raise kicks in but my check is smaller than my bonus, that’s a huge hit to my personal income, right? Because that’s what happens. Income is at least a percent higher than it was in November, and a one-time bonus in December made the month-to-month number look bad. If I can see “personal income reductions” like that, I’ll take it any time I can get it.
There’s a big difference between factual accuracy and truthfulness. It’s a line Michael Moore doesn’t seem to understand, and whoever wrote this headline has the same problem. What they said is true, month-to-month numbers dropped. But the truth of the numbers shows that the economy is improving each month, and the month-to-month only looks bad because December was so good.
February 27, 2005
C’mon, Would a 9 Year Old Lie?
The NY Times is reporting that Bush & Co have decided to take a 9-year old prodigy on the road to help them stump for Social Security reform.
The battle over Social Security has been joined by an unusual lobbyist, a 9-year-old from Texas who has agreed to travel supporting President Bush’s proposal.
The boy, Noah McCullough, made a splash with his encyclopedic command of presidential history, earning five appearances on the “Tonight” show and some unusual experiences in the presidential campaign last year. He beat Howard Dean in a trivia contest at the Democratic National Convention and wrote for his local newspaper about his trip to see the inauguration.
…
Noah plans to run for the White House in 2032 - and he wants Social Security addressed before then.
“It will be bankrupt when I’m president,” he said.
Awwwwww… Isn’t that adorable???
The real question here is not whether this is dishonest and a poor way to inform the American people about whether or not Social Security needs to be reformed. As Reagan once quipped regarding politics, “It has been said that politics is the second oldest profession. I have learned that it bears a striking resemblance to the first.” Certainly this is nothing more than showmanship, that does little to inform anyone of anything.
The real question is what has become of the American citizenry? Do Bush and Rove really believe that the American people will respond more to a 9-year old kid than an actual debate on the issues? I think that they do. Rove is quite a smart guy. I’m worried that he’s right.
Hat Tip: dadahead
The Oscars
I’m not planning on doing much posting on the Oscars. Since I’ve seen only two of the movies released in the last year and a half, neither of which are nominated for Oscars, there’s not a whole lot to say.
I might have to chime in if Chris Rock goes off and starts swearing and slandering people. The hopes that it might happen is the sole reason I’m even going to watch.
February 26, 2005
My Dust Bowl Migration
In high school, many of my English teachers had an affinity for modern and minority authors. Thus, somehow I missed out on being forced to read many of the ‘classics’. Of course, one of them did assign Anthem by Ayn Rand. So I’ve started going back and reading some of the books that I missed out on. (Yes, I am enough of a nerd that I consider it “missing out”, and now am going back and doing it).
The most recent was The Grapes of Wrath, a story about dust bowl farmers leaving a situation where there was no work for them, only to arrive at a situation where there was no work for them. Written in the populist new-deal era, it of course looks upon unions and collectivism as the solution. Few people seem to understand that the only constant in life is change, and that rather than tilting at windmills, change dictates that seeking employment outside subsistence farming was necessary for the dust bowl migrants.
In a desire to not be stuck in the hellhole of a modern-day Sysiphus, I have decided that it is time to jump ahead of the curve. California has ceased to be the Golden State, and is no longer a land of opportunity for a young couple looking to buy a house and start a family. It’s a sad day, because California is one of the most beautiful, temperate states in our great Union, and while I did not grow up here, my wife’s family and childhood are here. But when an electrical engineer cannot earn enough money to buy a house and earn a living, it is time for a change. That said, we’re off to the ‘Dirty South’. In mid-May, we trade in the land of fruits, flakes and nuts for Hot-lanta. I’m interested to watch the transition of my wife from Valley Girl to Georgia Peach, and excited for the prospect of having a real, actual, finished basement to myself. To all the people that have ruined California, you have it all to yourself now: I’ve found greener pastures.
February 25, 2005
The ‘Trust Fund’ Explained
Okay, so here’s the deal. My wife and I both work. Right now, she’s running a surplus. The amount of money she earns exceeds her necessary expenditures. So she’s passing that money to me. Of course, in our future, the demographics are going to change, and when we have kids, she is not going to be working. Thus, at that time, I can pay back the “trust fund” that she’s building up, right? Of course, during this time, that “trust fund” has been used to pay rent, bills, and other things. So when the day comes, for me to “pay back” the fund, it will require me to either make more money or reduce other expenditures. Since our actual income and expenses are aggregate, losing one income hurts both.
There’s a little accounting trick going on here. Of course, it’s the same accounting trick our government is using. Who is it tricking? Us.
That’s where our government is. Everyone keeps talking about the social security “trust fund”. The trust fund is not money that the SSA has saved. It’s a drawer full of IOUs from our government. One pocket has spent the money it should be holding for the other.
For this reason, we really need to figure out how to fix this issue. They say that in 2018, Social Security will have to draw from the “trust fund”. Right now, the payroll tax is providing money not into savings that will be drawn later, but is paying for general expenditures of the government. As that trust fund transfer decreases and then reverses, the rest of the government will either have to increase taxes or reduce spending to cover the difference. This is a problem next year, a bigger problem the year after that, and only grows and grows. The references to the “trust fund” only confuse the issue.
Once you remove the references to the “trust fund”, you realize a simple fact: to cover social security and maintain constant spending in other areas, total government spending will increase, and tax receipts need to increase with it.
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When the children and the fellow travelers of the same people who have been complaining that Social Security has been in crisis for — 70 years — get together to manufacture this current crisis, it is hard to see why I should believe the claims they are making.
As I have said to you in other entries, there may be, on some objective level, a social security crisis or there may not be, but that is not the point of the current Bush fire drill.
The point of that drill is to release a government program to Bush’s friends in the investment adviser community so they can pocket billions of dollars in administration fees. Then, as in the S&L crisis, when those “pocketing fees” cross the line into “looting,” these same jackals will come hat-in-hand to Congress and say “Doh — We never expected this to happen.” And ask for another gazillion dollars of taxpayer money to bail them out.
In a rational discussion, I would say that we should pour all of our money into making sure that people live longer, healthier lives. Then we should tell people that they are going to have to work for almost all of those newly added years.
In the present discussion, I can think tank with you, and I will from time to time. The basic impulse though is to make sure the Bushies do not steal our money.
Comment by B — March 3, 2005 @ 2:36 am
B,
Sounds like you’re agreeing with me! I don’t want the government reaching their hands further into the investment community either. (Yes, I realize this is a recent position for me, but I explained in the post why I reached it).
My point regarding the ‘crisis’ is more eloquently made by Rossputin, and quoting Alan Greenspan:
He finally made the argument I’ve been making for a long time but which people in Washington have been afraid of: That the Social Security surplus masks true government spending and that if there were really a Trust Fund which held Social Security funds the deficit would be more like $550B instead of $400B.Right now Social Security is funding our deficit spending. As the demographics change, our government needs to increase taxes or reduce spending elsewhere. If I thought they had the fiscal discipline to do that, I would accept keeping Social Security and cutting elsewhere. But the fact that they want to keep talking about this “trust fund” like it’s real shows that the last thing the government wants to do is face facts.
I think means-testing is the least-painful solution to the problem. It doesn’t discourage saving or production, because the people that are receiving it are not at a point in their lives where either are their goals.
Whether you call it a ‘crisis’ or not is up to you, and up to Bush. The federal government never has a crisis, because they’re plenty willing to reach deeper into our pockets. But the demographics don’t lie. The cost of the program is going up, and considering we’re already running huge deficits, we don’t have the taxes to support it.
Comment by Brad Warbiany — March 3, 2005 @ 8:12 am
The one problem I can think of with only using means testing is that there will still be workers who are paying into the system and not getting a cent out. Those that actually are going to need the money are not going to be able to support the system solely on their own, because they are likely to be in low income jobs; those who have a decent paying job will not be poor enough to get SS payments when they retire.
However, I don’t see what other option there is; like you, I used to support private accounts, but the problem is, as you said, that they would be government run. In a perfect world, I wouldn’t have to pay any Social Security tax, and I wouldn’t ask for any money from the government. But, since this isn’t a perfect world, and the baby boomers are going to cause Social Security to go bankrupt, something has to be done.
Comment by Mike — March 3, 2005 @ 8:22 am
Here’s my question. Why is SS structured as a generational transfer? Why isn’t it a PENSION FUND? Pension Funds have a long tradition of providing for the financial and health requirements of retired Americans, until they get raided by corporations who have been fiscally irresponsible.
If Social Security is going to start losing money in 2042 then we have 37 years in which a hypothetical Pension Manager employed by the SS Trust Fund could invest 100% of the SS surplus in Stocks and Bonds and Mutual Funds and start to build up a Social Security Endowment that will bridge the gap until the population stops contracting and starts expanding again. Look at the returns that CALPERS gets, or Berkshire Hathaway. If you have enough money and competent management, allowed to invest *wherever* the investing is good (even overseas), then you will never go broke no matter what happens to one stock market. Think of steady, strong earnings for years and years and years. There are Pension Fund Managers with the skills required to manage a massive portfolio like this.
The dangers, of course, are corruption and political meddling. The Government might simply raid the endowment and give it out to rich people as a tax break. But that is already a danger, has already happened to the “trust fund”, and the private accounts plan will simply allow the corruption to be local, closer to the retirees and harder to defend against.
Comment by Lorenzo — March 3, 2005 @ 1:14 pm
Lorenzo,
The problem is size. That many people, all invested in areas picked by the government fund manager, would be prone to a few problems.
1) Too much market distortion. All that money moving at once is a big issue.
2) Political meddling. After all, we can’t be investing people’s money in things like tobacco companies, or eeeevvviiilll corporations like McDonalds, the bastards making our kids fat.
3) Conflict of interest. The government has power to regulate, which it can use to influence the market, arbitrarily raising or lowering the value of the fund.
Comment by Brad Warbiany — March 3, 2005 @ 1:40 pm
Brad,
In my opinion you are incorrect about every criticism of personal accounts.
The problem is NOT size. Markets can handle anything that’s thrown at it…the market is much bigger than what we’re talking about here.
There will almost certainly not be political meddling in what funds people can invest in.
Do you have any evidence of government manipulation of stock markets or even bond markets? And selling bonds to fund government is NOT manipulation.
If Social Security keeps people out of poverty that does not mean that personal accounts would do that less well. I argue it would do it much better and because personal accounts can be bequeathed it increases the chance of the next generation avoiding poverty.
This reform would absolutely not be an expansion of federal authority. In fact it would be the first major step in taking massive amounts of money away from the pathological spenders in Washington.
I’m happy to keep this debate going until we get personal accounts!
Comment by Rossputin — March 3, 2005 @ 5:33 pm
Alright, now we’re cracking!
Okay, first, my points in my last comment were directly given against Lorenzo’s idea that we invest the trust fund like a pension. That would be monolithic investing, subject to tons of meddling. And it is also completely off-topic regarding our debate. I think we could both agree that investing the “trust fund” is a bad idea.
Size is a problem if the government doesn’t allow sufficient choices or diversification. Until I see a specific plan, I’m not going to cede this point. And political meddling pervades all that occurs in Washington, so I don’t see how you can claim this would magically be free of that.
Here’s my point. No matter what, government is going to set a “floor”, so that nobody retires in poverty. That floor is basically a means-test. The only question left is whether you believe it is better for the government to force you to invest the rest of the money, or to give it back to you in the form of a payroll tax cut. Would you rather have the government force you to invest 4% of your income in the funds they allow, or that they give you the money to invest or spend as you see fit?
I’ll grant that there is a benefit to forcing people who otherwise wouldn’t invest to do so. So how about we make the system voluntary, with some major tax incentives, such that the poor (who most likely don’t have access to a 401k program) have the option to invest? I always prefer voluntary government programs to compulsory ones.
Comment by Brad Warbiany — March 3, 2005 @ 8:02 pm
Brad,
The one condition that would allow me to support private accounts would be that the fund managers are NOT government employees. The way I would set it up is setting up ground rules for a type of fund that payroll taxes could be spent on, i.e. a diversified fund with X% of low risk stocks or bonds, and then allowing tax payers to choose which fund recieves their money.
Also, you should include the proposal of morphing social security back into what it was meant to be, insurance against disability and old age. Right now, turning 80 can be insured against since most people don’t reach 80. 65 cannot be insured against since most people reach 65. Social security was never meant to be a pension, and we shouldn’t be trying to reform it as one. It’s an insurance policy more than anything else, where many pay for the few who have disability or old age happen to them.
Comment by Quincy — March 3, 2005 @ 10:50 pm
I’ve never quite understood the “insuring yourself against growing old” thing. You’re supposed to grow old and retire. If we’re going to insure, let’s insure against being old and poor, not just being old.
It’s not like a disability or a car accident, or a health problem. You see old age coming. It doesn’t exactly sneak up on you like an unforeseen event.
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