October 8, 2005
College Football Week 6…
Alright, if you haven’t figured it out yet, take whatever I say here and bet the opposite way. So far, I’ve made an attempt at picking 9 games, and I’m 2-7. And one of those correct picks was USC, so it pretty much doesn’t count… But I have a real good feeling this week! (Note: I’d love to offer a pick of Georgia @ Tennessee, but haven’t really watched either team this year.)
#14 Wisconsin @ Northwestern:
Vegas says: Wisconsin favored by 6.5
Wisconsin has again found a tremendous rushing talent to follow Ron Dayne and Anthony Davis. Brian Calhoun has talent an an offensive line to run behind. John Stocco, the Wisconsin QB, has enough talent throwing the ball to be a threat through the air, and the Northwestern defense is not talented enough to stop that. But on the other side of the ball, the Wisconsin defense lost it’s all-star defensive line to the NFL this past year, and aren’t the shut-down defense they used to be. Northwestern is being carried by Tyrell Sutton at RB, and while Brett Basanez doesn’t have last year’s receiving corps, he’s got some talent throwing the ball. I think the weather is looking okay, but a little windy, which throws both QB’s off. I think this game is going to come down to in-your-face, Big Ten smashmouth football, and Wisconsin wins that battle. I don’t think it’s going to be high-scoring by college standards, as scoring will come through ball-control ground attacks, which eat up clock time.
Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Northwestern 13
UPDATE: Final Score: Northwestern 51, Wisconsin 48. No overtime, that was all scored in regulation. I’m wrong again 
Oklahoma @ #2 Texas:
Vegas says: Texas favored by 14
This game only deserves mention because Texas, in the last 5 years, has been unable to beat Oklahoma, even when they “should”. But this is the year. Oklahoma has been struggling all year, and Adrian Peterson is nursing an injury. Texas has the talent and the steam to roll today, and I think Mack Brown finally gets the OU monkey off his back.
Prediction: Texas 34, OU 17
UPDATE: Final Score: Texas 45, Oklahoma 12
Minnesota @ #21 Michigan:
Vegas says: Michigan favored by 8
Again, this game deserves mention because Minnesota came out rolling before getting stomped in Happy Valley last week, and Michigan has struggled, losing to Notre Dame and Wisconsin. But you can throw out the records in this game, Michigan has found their offense, and his name is Mike Hart. Like Drew Stanton for Michigan State, Mike Hart brings fire to the Michigan offense. Minnesota is too one-dimensional to handle a talented defense like Michigan, as they showed last week against Penn State. And this game will be played in the Big House, one of the hardest places to play in the Big Te(leve)n. Minnesota is known for falling apart once they get into the meat of their season, and this one won’t be close.
Prediction: Michigan 38, Minnesota 13
UPDATE: Final Score: Minnesota 23, Michigan 20. Wrong again. Congrats to coach Glen Mason for his first ever victory over the Wolverines.
Iowa @ Purdue:
Vegas says: Purdue favored by 5
I don’t want to make a prediction here, because as a Purdue alum, I can’t pick against them, and this game is a toss-up. Both teams have struggled this year. Iowa has shown that when facing a strong defense like OSU, they can’t score. Purdue doesn’t have a strong defense. Purdue has all the offensive talents to be a fearsome scoring machine, but just haven’t put it together yet this year. I think this game comes down to the first quarter. The team that comes out swinging for the fences and puts some points on the board rolls on to a comfortable victory. Purdue can be that team, but only if our idiot offensive coordinator, Jim Chaney, decides to start attacking the defense instead of trying to establish a non-existent running game. If Purdue comes out fired up, they’ll roll to victory. If Purdue comes out flat and Iowa gets an early lead, Purdue might as well just hang up the spurs for the season. I have to think that getting embarrassed at home by our in-state rival, Notre Dame, will put some fire in Purdue’s belly. As long as Jim Chaney doesn’t chain the offense down, Purdue wins.
Prediction: Purdue 38, Iowa 28
UPDATE: Final Score: Iowa 34, Purdue 17. Wrong again, and Purdue sucks.
#6 Ohio State @ #16 Penn State:
Vegas says: Ohio State by 3.5
Before the season, this was comfortably in the W column for tOSU. Then Penn State came out 5-0 behind a group of true freshmen and shocked the world. This is going to be a cold, rainy, defensive battle between two defensive powerhouses. And this game is played at Penn State, barely smaller and greatly louder than the Big House of Michigan. Joe Paterno has his players and his crowd believing there’s something special going on this year. But Penn State hasn’t faced a defense like Ohio State yet this year, and points are going to be very hard to come by. And the group of freshmen, no matter how much they believe in themselves, have not had to deal with the pressure of College Gameday coming to town, the hype, and the level of competition they’re going to face. That being said, though, I pick an upset here. Ohio State hasn’t been an offensive powerhouse, and Penn State proved against Northwestern two weeks ago that they never quit and can play with heart. It’s going to be a close, hard-fought game, which normally favors Ohio State, but I think emotion, Joe Pa, and the crowd pull PSU through in the clinch.
Prediction: Penn State 20, Ohio State 17.
UPDATE: Final Score: Penn State 17, Ohio State 10. My boldest prediction of the week was right! All four Big Ten games were upsets this week, and this was the only one I predicted to be an upset. Way to go JoPa!
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Don’t quit your day job.
I should point out, out of all 5 games this week, 4 were upsets. Several (like Wis/NW and Minn/Mich) were BIG upsets. The Big Ten this year is proving to be unpredictable, to say the least.