October 24, 2005
The White House said Monday that President Bush is confident Harriet Miers will be confirmed to the Supreme Court, even though a Democrat on the Senate panel that will hold hearings on her nomination said she doesn’t have the votes.
Republicans countered that Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., cannot predict how the GOP-controlled Senate will decide Miers’ fate. Many Republicans have yet to commit to approve President Bush’s second nominee to the high court.
Presidential spokesman Scott McClellan said Bush is committed to sticking with Miers until the Senate vote.
“He’s confident that she will be confirmed because as senators come to know her like the president knows her, we’re confident that they will recognize she will make an outstanding Supreme Court justice,” McClellan said.
Glad to see he’s so confident. I don’t hold that same confidence, because in the few weeks since the nomination, the reception by those Senators has been quite cool. In fact, some of the private meetings she’s had have caused many to think she needs to “study up” on Constitutional law, never a good sign for a Supreme Court nominee. And the questionnaire she completed didn’t inspire hope in her clarity of thought or supposed “detail-oriented” nature.
For a moment, though, throw out the quotes, throw out the newspaper articles, let’s look at exactly what people with a vested interest in the outcome have to say. Yep, I’m talking about the futures traders. If you want to know what the real pulse is saying, it’s always a good thing to see what people who are willing to lay their money on the line are thinking.
Checking the current contract on Tradesports.com, Miers is trading at a 30 share (roughly stating that people are giving her about a 30% shot at being confirmed). I tend to watch Tradesports on these things, because when someone’s putting their money where their mouth is, you know you’re getting an honest opinion. It may not be the right appraisal of her chances, but you know it’s honest.
Even taking away the idea of predictions, there is some overwhelming opposition to this nomination outside the Senate. According to the current numbers that NZ Bear is tracking, 73% of bloggers are opposed to the nomination, with only 13.5% in favor (13.5% neutral). Bloggers do tend towards the extreme ends of the political spectrum, but as Concurring Opinions states, we have been driving a lot of the debate.
There is a lot hanging on this nomination, and a lot of feathers have been ruffled. Quite a few Republicans and Libertarians are opposed to this, and I warn that if nomination goes through, the political ramifications could be devastating. All I can say to President Bush? I hope you know what you’re doing…
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.