November 19, 2005
College Football Week 11
Sorry for skipping out on last week. It’s good I did, because in the wife’s office pool I went 2-4 against the spread, not 5-1 like the previous week. So I’m going to pick against the spread again. The first 4 games this week are part of the office pool, and the final two, I just had to add:
#8 Alabama (9-1) @ #13 Auburn (8-2):
Vegas says: Auburn by 6.5
This is a tough one. We’ve got two great teams here. It’s a rivalry game. Alabama has an absolutely incredible defense. They have a good offense, which was great before star WR Tyrone Prothro broke his leg against Florida earlier this year. Since his injury, they’ve struggled against great defenses. Auburn has a pretty great offense, and a decent defense, so this is a tough matchup. And the line is 6.5, in a pitched battle between two great teams, that’s a BIG number. This game hinges on the performance of Auburn RB Kenny Irons. If he runs over the Alabama defense for more than about 125 yards, Auburn wins comfortably. If Alabama slows him down (and they’re only giving up 89 yards/game on the ground), it will be close, and the winner is a toss-up. I’m going to pick Auburn here, because after Alabama’s tough loss to LSU last week, I think they’re a little bit shaken. And the game is @ Auburn, which should help.
Prediction: Auburn covers (barely)
Expected final score: Auburn 27, Alabama 20
UPDATE — Result: Auburn covers — Final Score: Auburn 28, Alabama 18
#4 Penn State (9-1) @ Michigan State (5-5):
Vegas says: Penn State by 7.5
When you look at this, your brain immediately says Penn State will roll, and blow out a 5-5 MSU team. But there’s some history here. Over the last few years, the home team has almost always won large. MSU is at home. MSU has a history of losing games they should win, and winning games they shouldn’t. They’ve played spoiler many, many times. And PSU hasn’t been that great on the road. PSU has a great defense, but even with MSU’s offensive woes over the past few weeks, they’re still averaging over 500 yards total offense on the season. Penn State had trouble containing Northwestern, and I think they might have a similar problem with MSU. I still think Penn State will pull out the win today, but it’s going to be close.
Prediction: MSU beats the spread
Expected final score: PSU 33, MSU 30
UPDATE — Penn State covers — Final Score: Penn State 31, Michigan State 22
Clemson (6-4) @ #19 South Carolina (7-3)
Vegas says: Clemson by 1.5
Conventional wisdom over the past few years says that South Carolina, following a big win (like last week against Florida) will be followed by a loss. But South Carolina hasn’t had Steve Spurrier at the helm until this year. Spurrier leads this team to victory over Clemson.
Prediction: South Carolina beats the spread (and wins)
Expected final score: South Carolina 27, Clemson 24
UPDATE — Result: Clemson covers — Final score: Clemson 13, South Carolina 9
#23 Boston College (7-3) @ Maryland (5-4)
Vegas says: Boston College by 2.5
I don’t know anything about either of these teams. I know less about these two than I do about Clemson or South Carolina. The only thing I know about BC is that Doug Flutie went there. What I do know is that oddsmakers are typically smarter than the general public. 60% of bettors are taking Maryland. So I’ve got to pick BC, because those oddsmakers probably know more than the bettors.
Prediction: BC covers
Expected final score: Boston College 34, Maryland 27
UPDATE — Result: BC Covers — Final Score: Boston College 31, Maryland 16
Purdue (4-6) @ Indiana (4-6):
Vegas says: Purdue by 13
This is the way the Old Oaken Bucket rivalry used to be. Two teams with nothing to play for in a grudge match just to avoid losing this game. 10 years ago, Purdue fans would be somewhat happy with a 1-10 record, as long as we played Notre Dame tough and beat IU. But then we hired Coach Tiller, and went to 8 straight bowl games, beating IU seven of those eight seasons. This season, on the other hand, completely derailed, with a 6 game losing streak right in the middle. On the upside, Purdue has won their last two games behind the leadership of freshman QB Curtis Painter, and a defense that has regained its swagger. They’re looking to finish the season on a high note, signalling that they might be competing for the top of the Big Ten next season. IU started this season very strong behind new coach Terry Hoeppner, and people started to wonder whether they’re actually stepping out from the bottom of the Big Ten. Of course, that was against non-conference opponents, and when they got into their Big Ten schedule they started getting killed. They’re looking to finish the season with an emotional win over their bitter rival, signalling that they’re making important progress inside the program. Make no mistake, a line like 13 points is pretty big, but with a young QB and a grudge match, Joe Tiller won’t take his foot off the throttle in this game. Purdue takes it handily.
Prediction: Purdue covers
Expected final score: Purdue 27, Indiana 10
UPDATE — Result: Purdue covers — Final Score: Purdue 41, Indiana 14
THE Game: #9 Ohio State (8-2) @ #17 Michigan (7-3)
Vegas says: Ohio State by 3
This is nearly universally acknowledged as the greatest rivalry in College Football. This is it. Woody and Bo. The Big House and the Horseshoe. The game that almost every year determines the winner of the Big Ten (and will again today if MSU knocks off Penn State). I realize I’m building it up, but it just doesn’t get any bigger than this. So who’s going to win? I’m not going to bore you with stats or analysis, because this game throws all that out the window. This game is emotion, pure and simple. And this year, Ohio State has it together– Michigan does not. OSU covers.
Prediction: Ohio State covers
Expected final score: Ohio State 27, Michigan 17
UPDATE — Result: Ohio State covers — Final Score: Ohio State 25, Michigan 21
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I’m hoping Ohio State takes it. Living in Toledo even it is a huge rivalry. We are technically closer to Michigan distance wise so there seems to be a pretty even split as far as who wants who to win.
It is almost always an awesome game to watch. I am a fan of the NFL and play fantasy football as well as in a football pool but I don’t watch many college games. Except this one and an occasional game at University of Toledo since my two older daughters attend there. (Okay I did watch LSU because I liked watching Eli play)