June 14, 2006
Brinkmanship Ebbs
China Easing Its Stance On Taiwan
Gradually and without fanfare, China has substantially softened its stand on Taiwan, according to senior officials and diplomats. President Hu Jintao, they said, has begun to play down China’s long-standing vow to recover the self-ruled island by force if necessary and shifted the focus to preventing any move toward formal independence.
The adjustment, which has become clearer in recent months, has brought China’s policy on the volatile Taiwan issue closer to that of the United States. Washington has long maintained that the island’s half-century-old status quo — independent in fact but not in law — should not be changed until Beijing and Taipei can work out a mutually acceptable peaceful solution.
“Before, we never said ’status quo,’ ” said a Chinese academic who advises Hu’s government on Taiwan. “Now we say it all the time.”
As I’ve mentioned before, this is a situation that I try to keep a relatively close eye on. Considering the entire industry I work for is dominated by companies based in Taiwan & China (to the extent that they can’t produce in Mexico, due to the expensive labor), I have a large financial stake in whether or not a war starts. Since a large number of my coworkers here are native-born Taiwanese, with family and friends back in Taiwan, I’ve got an emotional stake in the matter as well.
Personally, I see this is a troubled situation, but not an inevitable war. China is slowly making strides towards liberalization, and liberty begets liberty. China in 25 or 50 years has the potential to be a very powerful nation, and if their current trends continue, a free one. Should that situation come about, the original cause for the split between China & Taiwan (the Chinese leaders fleeing to Taiwan to escape the consequences of the Revolution in the late 1940s) will dissipate. Much like the reunification of Germany, there are extremely close cultural ties between Taiwan and China, and they could come back together.
Right now, the trends show greater cooperation. Taiwanese investment in China is high, as they use the mainland as a giant factory for production. Taiwan’s economy is outgrowing its labor force, and the narrow Formosa Strait gives a short route to the enormous human and real estate capital available in China. China receives benefits from this cooperation as well, as they don’t have enough capital inside their country to expand their economy, and must rely on outside investment.
If all goes well, they’re on their way to a beautiful friendship. But there is one X factor involved. If one side does something stupid, there will be war. If the Taiwanese independence movement gains too much control, and Taiwan decides to declare formal independence, China will be forced into action to bring them back in the fold. That forces the US into a corner, where they must decide between warring with China or abandoning Taiwan. Taiwan can’t win that war without us, and I’m not sure America has the will to fight it for them. Of course, if China acts belligerently, pushing reunification before its time, and trying too much to meddle in Taiwan’s internal affairs, Taiwan will be forced into declaring independence.
It’s a game of brinkmanship, and one with very high stakes. But nobody wants war. From what I understand, not many Taiwanese really want formal independence. They feel the cultural ties to the mainland, but understand that China’s political regime is one they do not want to live under. At the moment, both sides are served best by the status quo, because Taiwan has de facto independence, if not de jure. The politicians on both sides seem to realize that, and it looks like they’re stepping back from the abyss, at least for now. And that I applaud.
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War would be bad for business, both for China and Taiwan………and one thing that both nations have demonstrated they care about is business.
China clearly wants to become a global superpower on an equal footing, more or less, with the US and EU. The day is passing, I think, where that can be done by sheer force of arms. By invasion, China probably would be able to defeat Taiwan, but they would stand to lose far more, especially if they draw their southern, eastern and western neighbors (principally India, Japan, and Australia) into what, with US involvement, could turn into an encircling alliance.
Nothing will happen before 2008 anyway. China absolutely does not want to do anything to ruin the good press they are bound to get from the Olympics.
[...] Brad Warbiany of The Unrepentant Individual, seeing that Brinkmanship Ebbs between China and Taiwan, is cautiously optimistic about their future. [...]