August 9, 2006
Netroots – Don’t Count Your Chickens
The whole “netroots” crowd is patting themselves on the back for taking down Joe Lieberman. But are they getting ahead of themselves?
I think they may have bitten off more than they can chew. Winning the Connecticut primary shows that they’ve got some power, but they took aim at a big fish in a small pond. Connecticut is a state where you declare a party at registration, and a very large number if people are registered as Independent. Thus, only registered Democrats can vote in the Democratic primary, meaning it’s even more partisan than most states. And the small population makes it a lot easier to effect a change. It’s a veritable “perfect storm” of primary upset, where a far-left candidate can unseat a moderate-left candidate. But they left Lieberman with a leg to stand on. He had enough time to plan to get himself on the ballot as an Independent. While they’ve won the first salvo, I think they’re in serious danger of losing the campaign.
There’s a big reason you see Democrats urging Lieberman not to run as an independent. He’ll beat them in November. So they keep asking him to “respect the will of the people” and drop out of the race. But as I saw Lieberman point out on PBS today, only about 15% of Connecticut registered voters took part in the Democratic primary. And barely less than 50% of those 15% voted for him. So he’s supposed to assume that because a very small majority of a tiny minority of the population picked Lamont over him, that means the rest of Connecticut voters won’t prefer him in the general election?
The “netroots” crowd are in a tough spot. Unless they convince Lieberman not to run, they have to beat him in November to count this as a victory. If they beat him in November, they’ve proven that the tide has turned against the Iraq war amongst the general public. But if they don’t beat him in November, they’ve only proven that the Democratic party has marginalized themselves by heading farther left, and they’ll look foolish. If Lieberman doesn’t run, Lamont will win, and while that’s not (IMHO) a real victory, it will be seen as such.
It will be an interesting couple of months. Lieberman isn’t going anywhere, and there’s a good chance he’ll beat Lamont and the Republican challenger. The “netroots” crowd, if they want validation, is going to have to put serious money into the Lamont campaign, possibly to the point of attacking Lieberman, the man who they supported only 6 years ago to become Vice President. And the Republicans can either walk away from their own candidate, ensuring a Lieberman victory, or put serious money behind him, hoping to capitalize on Lieberman and Lamont splitting the Democrat vote.
Either way, the only way for the “netroots” crowd to win is if Lamont beats Lieberman and the Republican. I think that’s pretty unlikely.
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Brad, I think Lieberman will win. The moderate dems and the Republicans that are mad at the party will vote him in. I think they are showing there true faces and it’s going to come back and bite them.