August 28, 2006
Purdue Football Season Preview
Well, I hesitate to do this, because I worry a bit about my predictive ability. Last year, I thought Purdue was ready for a special season, and they certainly didn’t disappoint, if you consider “special” to be of the short-bus variety. The team broke down worse than New Orleans after Katrina, answering the Orlando Sentinel sportswriter who picked the Boilers as his preseason #1 with their first losing season in 8 years.
But ever the optimist, I’ve got a good feeling about this one, because a lot has changed since last year:
1. There’s been a lot of upheaval in Purdue’s coaching staff. Five assistant coaches were replaced, and consensus opinion is that there are some definite improvements. If nothing else, the coaches are bringing a new attitude to the program, and news reports of spring and summer practices have universally been positive and reflected a reenergized program.
2. There was internal dissension in last year’s team. A “me-first” attitude started to take over, and it wasn’t handled well by Coach Tiller. At times, reports bubbled up to the surface of fights in the locker room or in practice. Some fans chalked that up to the natural excitement of a “fired up” football team, but it was more a sign of a cancer on the team. However, most of the culprits have departed through graduation or leaving early for the NFL, and it seems that the reports out of practice this year show a team that’s together and ready to get down to business.
3. The injury bug bit the defensive backfield. At the beginning of the year, it was one of our weaker units, and injuries hit so hard that we converted a wide receiver over to cornerback. Doubly worse were changes to the defensive schemes. Purdue had previously played a very aggressive, attacking defensive scheme, relying on their speed. To mask the injuries, though, they started blitzing less and dropping linebackers in coverage. The result was a poor run defense and a poor pass defense, with no pressure on opposing QB’s. Mid-year, they changed the scheme back, and the defense returned to old form. This year, they’ll run that same aggressive, blitzing scheme, and Tiller has recruited some serious JuCo and freshman talent to shore up the defensive backfield. They won’t be shutting down everyone they face, but they’ll be worlds better than last year.
4. The offense will be firing on all cylinders. Last year, the offense had a few difficulties. They brought in the spread option to take advantage of Brandon Kirsch’s running ability, but he never seemed to make good decisions. Purdue’s receiving corps struggled, as their primary receiver, Dorien Bryant, found himself facing double-coverage all year. Mid-year, coaches yanked the senior Kirsch in favor of redshirt freshman Curtis Painter. Painter executed the option very well, and showed good decision-making skills, but was too green to be accurate throwing the ball. This year, Painter has had all spring and summer practicing with the starters, and his accuracy should improve. On the receiving end, sophomore Greg Orton looks to be poised for a breakout year, and Tiller’s best recruit so far, Selwyn Lymon, will take the field for the first time. If those two can draw enough coverage that defenses can’t bracket Dorien Bryant, we should be able to pass at will. The coaches have already said they’re going to stretch the field, and this receiving corps can do it. At running back, we have proven talent in Kory Sheets, an explosive JuCo transfer, Jaycen Taylor, and two big bruising backs in Anthony Heygood and Frank Halliburton. And last, but really the most important of all, Purdue has fielded their best offensive line since the 2000 Rose Bowl season. They were good in 2005, and should dominate this year. They’ll give Curtis Painter time to read his progressions, and control the line of scrimmage for the run.
The pundits don’t see this the way I do. Many of them predict Purdue to fit somewhere between 6th and 9th place in the Big T(elev)en. But I don’t think that’s going to happen. Here’s how I see it going down:
Sep 2 – Indiana State (I-AA): Big W
Sep 9 – Miami (OH): W
Sep 16 – Ball State: Big W
Sep 23 – Minnesota: W
Sep 30 – @ Notre Dame: L
Oct 7 – @ Iowa: L
Oct 14 – @ Northwestern: W
Oct 21 – Wisconsin: W
Oct 28 – Penn State: W
Nov 4 – @ Michigan State: L
Nov 11 – @ Illinois: W
Nov 18 – Indiana: W
Nov 25 – @ Hawaii: W
Truthfully, that’s what I see, but I wouldn’t be surprised if we lost to Penn State and beat Michigan State. Those two are going to be close games. I think Purdue is headed for a 10-win season, with about a 3rd or 4th place finish in the Big Ten. If we eek out a win over Notre Dame, which is a possibility given the fact that overrated program will be battered coming off 4 tough weeks, we could finish 11-2. With Purdue’s tendency to lose a game they shouldn’t though, it could be as bad as 9-4. But I doubt it will be worse than that. Either way, this is going to be an exciting season.
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Just two comments:
1. Surprising news (I think anyway) out of Tiller’s lips tonight on his first JTS — Orton excelled in Spring and pres-season and Lymon, get this, might not play much at all. Tiller even mentioned the ‘R’ word — redshirt.
2. Purdue will beat Notre Dame
I like your enthusiasm Brad, and congratulations on writing a Purdue preview column without including the fact that they “miss” both Ohio State and Michigan on the schedule. I wouldn’t the Boilers’ chances against either of those teams this season. I believe Purdue will beat MSU due to the fact that it is late enough in the season that the Spartans should have unravelled by that point.
Wisconsin and Penn State scare me however. The Nittany Lions represent the best defense Purdue will see all year and Tiller has had problems beating Wisconsin at home (last win at Ross-Ade vs Wisconsin was 1997). Also, Purdue must not lose focus during their trip to Hawaii at the end of the season. Many a good team have been bitten by that bug.
I don’t hold a lot of hope for the Notre Dame game at this point. I reserve the right to flip flop on this after watching the Irish play Georgia Tech this coming Saturday. GO RAMBLING WRECK!!!!!
It’s entertaining to see just how much the previous season has to do with preseason expectations. A year ago Purdue was a trendy pick to win the Big Ten due to a favorable schedule that (as previously mentioned) didn’t include the Bucks or the Wolverines. Now, nine months removed from Joe Tiller’s first losing season, Purdue is viewed as a lower tier team in the conference despite the fact that they will be playing virtually THE EXACT SAME SCHEDULE.
Jim,
Wisconsin doesn’t worry me this year. They return nobody at RB, nobody at WR, Stocco (who is highly underrated) at QB will miss a few weeks this season with knee surgery, and they’re starting 4 new guys on the offensive line. That, coupled with a new coach, and they just don’t have the firepower to line up against us.
Penn State does worry me. On offense, they’re strongest at WR, while our defense is weakest at DB. We get them fairly late in the season, meaning they’ll probably have had a chance to gel on offense. On defense, they’ve got potentially the best linebacking corps in the nation, meaning they have more than enough speed to neutralize our spread option. We’re going to have to stretch the field and keep those linebackers on their heels to have any chance there. But, they’re replacing MRob, 4 guys on the OL, and their entire defensive backfield, so they won’t be 100%. And it’s at our house. At Happy Valley, I think they’d edge one out on us. But at home, I think we’ve got a great shot at winning that game.
Notre Dame is overrated. How overrated they are, I’m not sure, but I expect them to be 3-1 when we play them, quite possibly 2-2. They could be beaten up, when they already don’t have much depth, while we’ll have played a cupcake schedule up until that point. I’m not going to make a prediction until that week, but I wouldn’t rule us out just yet.