September 16, 2006
2006 NCAA Football Predictions – Week 3
Well, I’m still 2-7 against the spread this season, but I was looking it over, and I’m 7-2 straight up. Considering that I’m trying to pick mostly competitive games, that could be a lot worse. So it’s time to look at week 3.
Oh, and BTW, I again won’t be able to live-blog the results. I’ll be sitting in beautiful Ross-Ade Stadium on a crisp fall Saturday, after tailgating with some friends, and then watching my beloved Boilermakers win some respect from David Letterman’s alma mater, Ball State.
Ball St @ Purdue:
Vegas Says: Purdue -17
This is a tough one. Purdue hasn’t exactly show they have a defense to go with their offense. They let Miami (OH) take them to OT last week, Purdue barely blocking the Miami go-ahead field goal to force OT. But I realized something as I looked over the game. Purdue threw three picks. Not only that, it was their first week running a 3-4 defense, so they had no game film to figure out their new scheme. And Miami had the time of possession battle dominated, holding the ball for over 38 minutes, thanks to all those turnovers. Purdue gave Miami every possible chance to win, and still held on.
This week, a few things will be different. First, and foremost, MLB George Hall will be back from injury. As a junior, he’s one of the old guys on this defense, and is both a vocal leader and hard hitter. He’s going to be helping the new guys read the offense, and his ability to play run defense will allow LB Dan Bick to roam a little more, disrupting plays everywhere. At the same time, the defensive backs are one week older. That may not seem like much, but they got torched by Miami last week, and since it’s 3 freshman and one JuCo transfer, they’re still in a learning stage. These kids have talent, and a week of watching film and talking to the coaches should help them understand what went wrong and how to make it right. They’re not going to suddenly become all-Big Ten guys, but they should be one more increment better than last week. And last, I think the offense should be a little less mistake-prone. Curtis Painter threw three interceptions because the Miami MLB was spying on him on throws across the middle. He also will have a week of game film to understand what he did wrong on those throws and make corrections. I’m predicting a game where Purdue is mostly turnover-free (I wouldn’t be surprised to see one), and the Purdue defense causes one, but more likely two. George Hall makes a statement, and Purdue wins handily.
Prediction: Purdue covers
Predicted final score: Purdue 45, Ball State 17
UPDATE: Final Score: Purdue 38, Ball State 28
Result: WRONG
Iowa State @ #16 Iowa:
Vegas Says: Iowa -13.5
Some of you will look at the fact that Iowa went into overtime against lowly Syracuse last week and say “WTF are they thinking giving them 13.5??” Well, the Syracuse game was played without Iowa QB Drew Tate, who is the heart and soul of that team. Much like Drew Stanton is for Michigan State, Iowa only plays as well as Tate plays. Of course, they’re talented enough that with Tate on the bench, they still beat a bottom-feeder like Syracuse. Tate will be back from an abdominal strain this Saturday. But will he be 100%?
I don’t have to tell one blogger how important this game is, because he already knows. But for the rest of you, think of how much I hate Notre Dame. That’s how much these schools hate each other. This instate rivalry means nothing to their conference standings at the end of the year, but it’s a blood feud. Iowa was embarrassed last year, and is looking for retribution. And this game will be played @ Kinnick Stadium, not an easy place for a visitor.
This is a tough one. Iowa has a dominating defense. They should be able to hold ISU. But frankly, I think Tate isn’t 100% ready to play, I think this is a blood feud game, and while they may want retribution, I don’t think I’m going to give Iowa 13.5 points. ISU is a lot better than Syracuse, and unless Tate comes out swinging, this game is going to be a close one.
Prediction: Iowa State beats the spread
Predicted final score: Iowa 23, Iowa State 17
UPDATE: Final Score: Iowa 27, Iowa State 17
Result: RIGHT
Michigan State @ Pitt:
Vegas Says: Pitt -2.5
Another difficult pick. When MSU QB Drew Stanton is on, he’s unstoppable. Pitt looks like a decent team, with solid 3-touchdown wins over Virginia and Cincinnati, but isn’t putting up 500 offensive yds/game like MSU. MSU only beat Idaho 27-17, but then rebounded, routing Eastern Michigan 52-20. Is Pitt for real? Does MSU have momentum from their destruction of a patsy?
My heart tells me MSU takes this one. Behind the senior leadership of Drew Stanton, they should be able to roll up points. But then I have to ask myself one question: have they proved themselves yet? Pitt has beaten two BCS conference teams, has done so convincingly, proving in both games that they could put up points AND play defense. Michigan state has squeaked by Idaho (a WAC patsy) and let Eastern Michigan, who got soundly defeated by fellow MAC team Ball State, score 20 points. There’s a part of me that says MSU is going to break out and score some serious points. But without proof, I’m going to have to give this one to Pitt in a barn-burner.
Prediction: Pitt covers
Predicted final score: Pitt 42, MSU 37
UPDATE: Final Score: MSU 38, Pitt 23
Result: WRONG
#15 Oklahoma @ #18 Oregon
Vegas Says: Oregon -5
Oregon opened the season blowing the doors off Stanford, but then had to rely on trickeration to beat WAC powerhouse Fresno State. Oklahoma didn’t destroy U of Alabama-Birmingham, and but then defeated Washington handily in week 2. Like usual for the Pac-10, Oregon is putting up obscene yardage on offense, and giving up quite a bit on D. Oklahoma, on the other hand, is running the ball down the throats of their opponents on the back of Adrian Peterson, yet is giving up more rushing yards on defense than Peterson is gaining!
This is a fairly evenly-matched battle. Looking it over, though, I have to give Oregon the edge. They’re at home, which is worth 3 points. They’re gaining mad rushing yards, which should continue to work against Oklahoma. And Oklahoma hasn’t yet proved that they can threaten with the pass, so Oregon can hope to keep their offense one-dimensional, especially with Oregon’s ability to defend the pass. Oregon wins this one, not by a huge margin, but enough to cover.
Prediction: Oregon covers
Predicted final score: Oregon 31, Oklahoma 24
UPDATE: Final Score: Oregon 34, Oklahome 33
Result: WRONG
#6 LSU @ #3 Auburn
Vegas Says: Auburn -3
I think the Tigers will win 
Seriously, though, this is a tough one. Looking at the performance this year to date, both teams look like they’ve got stellar offenses and lock-down defenses. but delving into it, one asks “who have they played?”… Auburn shut out Mississippi State, but it’s possible Miss St won’t score an offensive point all year, the way they’ve been playing. They did let Washington State score 14, but then, Washington State hung 56 on Idaho, so that might have been a good defensive effort. LSU beat both Arizona and Louisiana-Lafayette by identical scores, 45-3. Arizona may be in the PAC-10, and has actually won a game, but it certainly isn’t due to offensive prowess. And Louisiana-Lafayette is a Sun Belt team. So I think these teams may have lock-down defenses.
So I’m going to pick this game based on the offense. Both starting QB’s look to be very competent. Both teams have some very talented receiving corps. Where do I see a difference? At running back. Auburn has Kenny Irons, who is a go-to guy. LSU appears to be doing the running-back-by-committee deal, but without any real standouts. And Auburn’s Irons is doing this behind an offensive line who has already allowed 5 sacks on the year. I think Auburn tries to wear down LSU’s defense on the ground, and wins a tight battle.
Prediction: Auburn covers
Predicted final score: Auburn 13, LSU 9
UPDATE: Final Score: Auburn 7, LSU 3
Result: RIGHT
#11 Michigan @ #2 Notre Dame:
Vegas Says: Notre Dame -6
Michigan should dominate the line-of-scrimmage, whether on offense or defense. Michigan will attack Brady Quinn like crazy. Michigan should be able to shut down Darius Walker. Michigan’s defensive backfield is probably the best in the Big Ten, and should be able to contain ND’s receivers. Offensively, Michigan should be able to run the ball at the ND defense at will. And Chad Henne and Michigan’s receivers, while not as strong as ND’s receivers, should be able to outclass ND’s poor secondary. Michigan should win this game.
But they won’t. Troy Smith of OSU comes out and win’s big road games. Chad Henne doesn’t. Chad Henne, through 2005, was about 10-3 at home, and 6-5 on the road. And comparing Lloyd Carr to Charlie Weis is like comparing Paris Hilton to Bill Ford. One has gotten somewhere and squandered it, and the other has shown that they deserve at least some acclaim. This game is going to be a defensive battle, up until the 4th quarter. Notre Dame will be leading, with Chad Henne in position to come back and win it. Henne will fail, and while Notre Dame will win, they won’t cover.
Prediction: Michigan beats the spread
Predicted final score: Notre Dame 20, Michigan 17
UPDATE: Final Score: Michigan 47, Notre Dame 21
Result: RIGHT
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