September 18, 2006
Purdue Update
Well, I went 3-3 against the spread this week, and 4-2 straight up. The picks are starting to get a little more predictable now that we’ve got a few weeks of play.
I got to actually go to a game this weekend, and I have to say that I missed being in West Lafayette. I got a chance to go hang out before the game at my fraternity house. I met some of the current brothers, and a few alumni from my time also showed up. Ever enjoying the days back in school when alumni would show up with free booze, I had a cooler full of nice beer to share as well 
On the football field, Purdue is looking a little better, and I think they played much stronger football than the 38-28 final score indicated. With about 4 minutes to play, they were up 38-13 in a rout. I think they laid down and got a bit complacent, which isn’t too surprising for such a young team. But it did allow Ball State to rack up 15 very quick points. You can’t do that against better competition (which I’m sure the coaching staff will impress into their minds today).
So far, the Purdue offense is looking absolutely unstoppable. The only thing that can slow them down is Curtis Painter getting intercepted, which is happening FAR too often, but he’s a young guy and needs to learn a little more about reading defenses. Again, these mistakes, while costly, are manageable against the likes of Miami and Ball State, but they need to be cleaned up before we play teams like Notre Dame or Iowa. Purdue’s receiving corps, though, is looking stellar. Veteran Dorien Bryant is always a threat, but in past years we haven’t had big-play talent opposite him. In 2005, defenses would just bracket Bryant, shutting him down. This year, we have Greg Orton and Selwyn Lymon. While young, these guys are big, NFL-style wide receivers, with speed and athleticism that will one day make them stars. At tight end is Dustin Keller, who is widely considered a “freak of nature”. About 6′5″, 250 lbs, with inhuman strength, and 4.5 speed. And coming out of the backfield is RB Kory Sheets, who currently leads the NCAA in scoring with 60 points. Defenses can’t double-cover anyone on this team. Heck, they can’t COVER everyone at once effectively. There are just too many targets, and Painter showed last Saturday that he can spread the ball around to all of them. Add that to a 1-2 combination of Sheets and RB Jaycen Taylor in the backfield, and a very solid offensive line, and I don’t think there’s a defense we face this year that can effectively slow us down. As long as we don’t make our own mistakes, we can score on anyone.
The only problem, then, is how many points get scored on us. The defense is very, very young. And I can say from what I’ve seen so far that they’re improving. But they’ve got a long way to go. After already losing two defensive backs to injury, while already starting mostly freshman and sophomores on this team, we have a lot of room to grow. I think this team will get much better on defense, but I would say taking the Over on any Purdue game this year will be a good bet. Our defense means that we’ll be in some offensive shootouts this year. We’ve got plenty of firepower to match, but to win those games takes luck and senior leadership as much as skill. Against teams with senior QB’s like Iowa, Wisconsin, and Michigan State, we’ll be hard-pressed to win those battles.
Overall, though, I don’t think Purdue looks that bad. Which, given our scare against Indiana State and letting Miami take us to OT, is a very positive statement. I think we’re slightly better than even money to beat Minnesota this week, and probably destined to lose against both Notre Dame and Iowa. But even if that’s the case, and we’re 4-2 after Iowa, we’re still in decent shape. Our defense will be a different team by week 6, especially as we are already seeing notable improvement in their play week-to-week. Northwestern looks down this year, and I think we can beat them, and then perhaps split a 2-game home-stand against Wisconsin & Penn State. And it’s downhill from there. This team hasn’t really looked very good to start the season, and the growing pains have nearly cost us a game. But I see an attitude out of this team that they’re young and hungry for respect. Every week I see them learn from their mistakes, and get a little better. This team is going to be pretty good in a month, and be incredible the next two years.
Oh, and in other news, Notre Dame got crushed. It was a good day for two reasons. First, I always like to see Notre Dame lose, and they’re looking a lot more vulnerable than I thought they were. Second, Purdue doesn’t play Michigan this year, because they look tough. The Big Ten Championship just might come down to an undefeated Michigan and an undefeated Ohio State playing in November for the National Championship berth. Michigan is a complete team this year, and they just earned some serious street cred for it.
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