September 22, 2006
2006 NCAA Football Predictions – Week 4
Well, so far I’m 5-10 against the spread, but 11-4 straight up. Not doing well, but the games are getting easier and easier as we progress. There are some big games in the Big Ten this weekend, but every Big Ten game this week is in a stadium with thunderstorms predicted (except Northwestern, which is in Nevada on Friday). That may play a major role, as passing teams like Purdue in the rain and wind lose some weapons. I’ve got a couple of Big Ten picks, and a few outside this week. So let’s see how they turn out…
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Miami (OH) (0-3) @ Syracuse (1-2)
Vegas Says: Syracuse -7
I have to admit, my first thought in this game was “Syracuse is a favorite?!” I mean, they beat Illinois, but I think my high school team could beat Illinois. But then, Miami is 0-3, with a losses to Northwestern, Purdue, and Kent St. But looking at this, I still just can’t figure it out. Syracuse isn’t putting up offensive yardage, only played Iowa close because Drew Tate was injured, and is getting beaten on defense. They may be 7 point favorites, but I just don’t see how they can cover. Miami has had a rough couple games, but I don’t see them going 0-4.
Prediction: Miami beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Miami 28, Syracuse 17
Final Score: Syracuse 34, Miami 14
Prediction: WRONG
Air Force (0-1) @ Wyoming (1-2)
Vegas Says: Wyoming -1
This is a tough one. Wyoming has a blowout over Utah St, followed by respectable losses to Virginia and Boise State, who are decent programs. Air Force has only played one game, but they nearly defeated ranked Tennessee, who blew Cal out of the water and lost a close one to Florida. First things first, I have to consider Air Force a better team based purely on how they played Tennessee. But something tells me that’s just not enough to base a pick on. So let’s look at the stats. In their one game, Air Force gained and gave up about 400 yards. Tennessee has been putting up lots of yards, so I won’t fault their defense for allowing so many. And their offense deserves credit for gaining 400 on Tennessee, above Tennessee’s average for the year. But on the other side of the ball, Wyoming has only allowed an average of 193 yards/game in their three games. They haven’t scored much, but they’ve held some good offenses to low yardage. So my pick? I still have to go with Air Force. They’ve scored 4 TD’s in one game against an SEC powerhouse, while Wyoming has scored 6 TD’s in 3 games against 2 WAC teams and an ACC patsy. I think Air Force looked far more impressive in their loss than anything Wyoming has shown all year.
Prediction: Air Force beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Air Force 17, Wyoming 13
Final Score: Air Force 31, Wyoming 24
Prediction: RIGHT
#12 Notre Dame (2-1) @ Michigan State (3-0)
Vegas Says: Notre Dame -3
This, as usual with any Notre Dame team, is an emotional game for me. I have watched as MSU has owned ND in recent history, culminating in an exciting overtime victory last year. When MSU planted their flag on the turf at Notre Dame, they were throwing down a gauntlet with today in mind. On paper, when the MSU offense is clicking, they’re absolutely unstoppable. On paper, the ND offense hasn’t exactly excited this year. Defense, both teams may be good, but not great, and MSU doesn’t have the front seven to punish Brady Quinn the way Michigan did. Perhaps that might explain why there’s a 59-point over/under in this game. Looking it over, I think two factors are at play. If the weather is okay, this game becomes a shootout, with firepower on both sides. I give a slight edge to MSU in that case, since QB Drew Stanton is a proven force both in the air and on the ground when he’s playing with confidence, and he’s carrying some swagger this year. If the weather goes south, I have to think the MSU running game blows the doors off overrated Darius Walker and Notre Dame, and MSU wins. So either way, I think MSU wins. If it’s a dry day, it’s going to be a major shootout. If it’s a wet day, MSU pounds them on the ground.
PS – Though I love to watch ND lose, I actually think I’d prefer to see them win. Purdue plays them next weekend, and if they lose to MSU, they’ll be desperate to beat Purdue to salvage their season. If they beat MSU, the pressure is off, and Purdue might show up to shock them. So it’s a game where my heart and my head are at odds…
Prediction: MSU beats the spread
Predicted Final Score (based on bad weather): Michigan State 27, Notre Dame 17
Final Score: Notre Dame 40, Michigan State 37 
Prediction: NO DECISION
#24 Penn State (2-1) @ #1 Ohio State (3-0)
Vegas says: Ohio State -17
Again, a tough pick. I have no doubt that OSU will win this game. They have too much experienced talent on offense, and some proven talent on defense, to lose. Penn State is replacing far too many players on both sides of the ball, particularly their incredible QB Michael Robinson, their OL, and most of the DL and secondary. Ohio State is firing all over on offense, and while they’ve got some vulnerability against the run, their defense looks solid. But 17 points is a big line… Again, weather may be a factor. On a dry day, Ohio State is going to attack Penn State’s inexperienced defensive backs, and Ted Ginn and Anthony Gonzalez have huge days. Penn State didn’t prove they could pass on Notre Dame, who has a much worse defense than OSU, so I dont’ see them competing if this game goes to the air. But, if the game is played in the mud and muck, Ohio State knows they can win without airing it out. They’ll pound Antonio Pittman all day long, but may not win big. So my prediction will be that in the bad weather, OSU plays a controlled running game and pounds the ball at PSU. If the game goes dry, I’ll say that OSU, knowing Jim Tressel, slows down once they have a 14-point lead, and starts running the ball, making their beating of the spread a question. Either way, I worry that not enough points will be scored to really justify a 17-point margin.
Prediction: Penn State beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: OSU 28, PSU 17
Final Score: OSU 28, PSU 6
PREDICTION: WRONG
Minnesota (2-1) @ Purdue (3-0)
Vegas Says: Minnesota -3
Again, I’m worried about weather. Moreso here than anywhere else. Minnesota’s strength is their ground game, and Purdue, while being fairly balanced, has such incredible weapons in the vertical attack that we can’t allow a team to force us to be one-dimensional. And nobody knows how sophomore QB Curtis Painter will handle rain and wind. Looking at the offenses, I think Painter has a much stronger arm, so he’ll be better able to handle the rain and wind than Minnesota QB Bryan Cupito. If we have a rain game, I think Purdue can force Minnesota to purely run the ball, load the box to stop the run, and still have enough of a two-dimensional game to win. If it stays dry and with a calm wind, though, we’ve got an issue. Bryan Cupito isn’t a great passer, but he’s good enough to make Purdue pay if they try to load the box against the run. He’s got two big strong receivers to throw against Purdue’s inexperienced secondary, and could kill us with the playaction pass. You’ll notice I haven’t made much noise about the defenses. Well, neither team has one. This game will be high-scoring, even if it’s raining. The only consolation I have is that Purdue has shown strength in the face of adversity this year, and I hope that will continue.
Prediction: Purdue beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Purdue 41, Minnesota 38 OT
Final Score: Purdue 27, Minnesota 21
Prediction: RIGHT
Wisconsin (3-0) @ #6 Michigan (3-0)
Vegas Says: Michigan -13.5
This may be the closest we’ll come this week to a defensive battle. Wisconsin is putting up huge numbers rushing, and so is Michigan. Wisconsin has a stout defense, allowing only about 200 yds/game, and Michigan is doing the same. Neither team has really needed to air it out this season, so I’m unsure how either team will do, but both appear to have very strong pass defenses. Wisconsin has beaten three below-average teams, and Michigan has beaten two below-average teams and blew out a team in a game that might have been competitive were it not for about 5 turnovers. This game should be a joy to watch. Working out the stats, both teams look good; Wisconsin a lot better than expected, and Michigan a lot better than last year. But looking at the numbers, I think Michigan’s rush defense is incredible. They won’t shut down Wisconsin, but should definitely contain them. Michigan is more two dimensional than Wisconsin, and should be able to keep Wisconsin’s defense honest, opening up the game for Mike Hart. I see this staying close for a half or so, and then Michigan blowing the doors off. Even if it’s a wet day, I think Michigan has the rushing and passing offense to score.
Prediction: Michigan covers
Predicted Final Score: Michigan 34, Wisconsin 17
Final Score: Michigan 27, Wisconsin 13
PREDICTION: RIGHT
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So, that’s it for this week. 5 teams beating the spread, one covering… So be it. Hopefully I’ll do a little better than some past weeks, though…
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I like your analysis every week; it’s a nice refresher from all the political and stock market stuff I read every day.
As for your record, 5-10 (forget straight up, that doesn’t pay), I hope you’re using some sort of money management system, i.e. – betting small as you lose and betting bigger as you win, either that or assigning some sort of confidence rating to your picks.
No matter what sport on which you are betting, one that has a ball or one that has balance sheets and income statements, tight money management can not only keep you in the game, but provide you with a profit even if you have a losing record.
The story of Amaranth is a shining example of bad money management techniques – betting the ranch on one play.
Go Bucks!!!
It’s 6:12a.m. and Michigan still sucks!
Jack,
I’m actually not betting any real money on these games. This is more of an experiment to see if I can beat the 55% correct prediction mark I’d need to actually start betting over the course of the season…