September 26, 2006
Purdue @ Notre Dame — A Preview
Well, as I’m sure most of you have been able to tell, this is one of the biggest games of the year for me. I’ve been thinking about it since the final moments of the Purdue-Minnesota game. I’m not going to actually make a pick yet, at least until I see the line, but here’s how we stack up.
Notre Dame entered this year ranked #2, and I said they were overrated. They survived a scare against Georgia Tech to start the season, when inexplicably the Georgia Tech coaches decided to stop throwing the ball to Calvin Johnson. They beat Penn State handily, but Penn State gave them 5 turnovers, and also inexplicably didn’t attempt to beat Notre Dame by blitzing Brady Quinn. Michigan destroyed Notre Dame, albeit with the help of quite a few turnovers, and planted Quinn on his back early and often. Michigan State was on pace to rout Notre Dame, but in usual fashion, imploded. Notre Dame is currently ranked 12th, but hasn’t looked like the powerhouse they were expected to be.
Purdue, on the other hand, wasn’t expected to be a powerhouse, and if they’re going to be so by the end of the year, they haven’t shown it yet. Purdue’s offense has been racking up yards and points in big bunches, but their defense hasn’t really shut anyone down. They’re currently 4-0 and would be ranked about 29th in the AP poll, which isn’t a surprise who they’ve played and how they’ve beaten them (close). What has impressed me, though, is their tenacity in the face of adversity, and the way they’ve learned and improved over the season. The defense we had on September 2nd was the defense I saw last Saturday, and the one we unveil this weekend should be just a bit better than last week. Beyond that is the way this team has stepped up and big plays when it needed big plays. Purdue over the last two years has had a horrible tendency to fold at the end of a close game. This team looks like the type that will fight like a cornered dog from kickoff to final whistle.
How does this play out for Saturday? Notre Dame should win this game. They have a lot more experience at the skill positions, and while I think they’re overrated, they’re not a bad team. On paper, Purdue isn’t quite ready for them. But I don’t think the Purdue players care about that. This is a rivalry game, and I guarantee they’re not scared of walking into that stadium and laying it out on the field.
So here’s how they stack up.
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Purdue Rush O vs ND’s Rush D:
Advantage Purdue. ND’s line is pretty good, but their linebackers are not. MSU, PSU, and Michigan were able to move the ball on the ground. With the one-two punch of Kory Sheets & Jaycen Taylor, and the hopes that the passing game can force their safeties onto their heels a bit, I think we’ll be ahead in this one.
Purdue Pass O vs ND’s Pass D:
Advantage Purdue— *IF* Curtis Painter shows up. We definitely have the receivers to torch their D. Their LB’s can’t cover Keller, and if we can get Orton back to 100% after his hip pointer, the spread of Bryant, Orton, Lymon and Keller will be great. They’ve been shown by both Michigan and MSU to be vulnerable to the pass. But to do it, Painter has to come up big in this very big game.
ND Rush O vs Purdue Rush D:
Even. Frankly, I’ve never thought Darius Walker was all that good, and both Michigan and MSU bottled him up. However, Michigan has one of the best Front 7’s in college football, and while we’re starting to come together, we’re not at that level. Walker can probably gain 80-120 yards on us, but I don’t see him being able to run down our throats.
ND Pass O vs Purdue Pass D:
Advantage ND. Simply put, their receivers are bigger and more experienced that our DB’s. I was happy to see TE Anthony Fasano graduate, but their replacement TE came up big against Michigan State. The only way to match up against that passing attack is going to be to get Brady Quinn off his rhythm, and to do that, we need to put him on his back. We’ll need to bring the blitz, and I hope to see at least 2-3 sacks. Our best weapon is to make Quinn throw the ball inaccurately, because our DB’s can’t match up with the receivers.
Special teams:
Advantage Purdue (slight). Purdue’s been pretty solid in the kicking and special teams game, so I’m going to give us the edge there. Notre Dame has missed some field goals and extra points, and surprisingly Zbikowski has been fumbling some punts.
Intangibles:
Advantage ND. First, the game is at South Bend, not an easy place to play. Second, Painter hasn’t won on the road (I can say I’m glad Tiller gave him the experience @Wis and @PSU last year though), and this team may be young enough to get rattled with an aggressive crowd. Third, Weis is a very aggressive coach. It could be his downfall, but our players can’t be sure that stopping ND on third down will be enough. And when you make a big third-down stop and then they line up with the offense on 4th, how easy is it, emotionally, to get up and do it again?
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Final Result:
I see ND scoring 14 points based on our defensive mistakes, since we have some young DB’s that haven’t had to face anything like receivers Jeff Snuffaluffagus and Rhema McKnight. Based on the rest of their offense, they can score another 14-21. I see their score being in the low 30’s. So the question is whether Purdue can match that. It’s not going to be easy, because we’re going to have to execute extremely well– on the road in a hostile environment– to match that.
I think two metrics are going to define this game. Third down conversions and turnovers. Personally, I don’t even think big plays are going to be a big metric, because both offenses will have them. The key is going to be the crucial stops. If Purdue converts well (> 65%) on third down and wins the turnover battle, I think we can take this game. If we don’t, we will get beat.
The Unrepentant Individual linked with Purdue @ ND Wrap-Up
The Unrepentant Individual linked with 2006 NCAA Football Predictions — Week 5
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Hey,
I really enjoy reading your game perdictions. thanks for taking the time to do them. keep up the good work!
Go BOILERS!
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