September 30, 2006
2006 NCAA Football Predictions — Week 5
Well, I’m 8-12 against the spread (improving from my 2-7 start after week 2), and a low 15-6 straight up (damn you, schools in Michigan!)… Now, though, we’re getting into the meat of the season. There aren’t as many expected blowouts when you get into conference play, unless you’re playing Illinois, a 26-point underdog to MSU. Furthermore, this is conference play, where things get a lot hotter. You’re no longer trying to pad your win total for bowl eligibility, you’re battling for conference standings and the question of whether your bowl will be Jan 1, or a lowly December bowl game.
So let’s see if I might improve my record this week.
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Wisconsin (3-1) @ Indiana (2-2):
Vegas Says: Wisconsin -11
Something’s wrong here. Wisconsin is only 11 point favorites? Granted, they put up a whopping 13 points last weekend on offense, and yes, their offense is replacing pretty much everyone. But that 13 was scored against the best defense in the Big Ten, and they’ve been scoring in their other games. Even so, let’s say they only score 13 (unlikely, against IU’s defense). Can IU score even 3 on the Wisky D to beat the spread? It’s questionable, since they only put up 7 on UConn. IU won’t be able to put up points on Wisconsin, and Wisconsin will run right through IU’s D. This game should be settled by halftime.
Prediction: Wisconsin Covers
Predicted Final Score: Wisconsin 31, Indiana 13
Final Score: Wisconsin 52, Indiana 17
Prediction: RIGHT
Kansas St (3-1) @ Baylor (1-3):
Vegas Says: Kansas St -1.5
This is an odd one. How can a 3-1 team be only a 1.5 point favorite over a 1-3 team. Something doesn’t quite add up when you see a line like that. So I have to look at these teams a little closer. K-State squeaked by a decent Illinois State team, then blew out two doormats. They then got stomped by #8 Louisville, but that’s to be expected. Baylor, on the other hand, was expected to be decent this year, but is sitting at 1-3. Yet they’ve played decent in their losses to TCU, Wash St, and Army. So I’ll have to look at the stats. Baylor appears to be a pure air attack, averaging only 30 yards per game on the ground. K-State is much more balanced. On defense, both teams appear to be putting up decent totals, but given the level of competition Baylor has faced, I have to give the edge to Baylor. In this game, I think Baylor is going to go to the air early and often. If they can get an early edge, they might be able to take this one over. But I think K-State is expecting that, and their pass defense has been decent. I frankly don’t see a lot of scoring here all day. That being said, the team that passes more has the chance for big plays, and I have to give the edge to Baylor.
Prediction: Baylor beats the spread
Predicted final score: Baylor 13, Kansas State 10
Final Score: Baylor 17, K-State 3
Prediction: RIGHT
Northern Illinois (2-2) @ Ball State (1-3):
Vegas Says: NIU -6.5
Here we see a team with a blazing talent in Garrett Wolfe, who put up gaudy numbers against the defense of Ohio State, against a MAC up-and-comer who has respectable losses against two Big Ten teams. NIU has a ridiculous offense and a porous defense, while Ball State has a good offense and a worse defense. It’s tough to judge, of course, as Ball State faced a prolific Purdue offense that put up astonishing numbers, and NIU faced a prolific Ohio State offense that put up astonishing numbers in the first quarter. But in this case, I look at the question of whether anyone on the Ball State defense can even contain Garrett Wolfe. And the answer is no. I don’t think we’ll see much defense from either team, but with the rushing attack of NIU, I do think we’ll see a lower-than-expected score.
Prediction: Northern Illinois covers
Predicted final score: Northern Illinois 24, Ball State 17
Final Score: NIU 40, BSU 28
Prediction: RIGHT
#6 Michigan (4-0) @ Minnesota (2-2):
Vegas Says: Michigan -10
Here’s one of those games that might be based on last year’s outcome. Minnesota edged by Michigan in a close, hard-fought game at the Big House. The question is whether they can do it again? Well, I’m here to tell you, the answer is an emphatic no. Minnesota gains its numbers on the ground, and Michigan has the best rushing defense in the Big Ten. Minnesota doesn’t play well when forced to go to the air, and Michigan has the best defensive backfield in the Big Ten. And Minnesota’s defense? Not so good. About the only chance that Minnesota has of beating this spread is if Michigan doesn’t throw the ball. But Michigan is looking for national mindshare, so a blowout is in their interest here. This one is also out of hand by the half.
Prediction: Michigan covers
Predicted Final Score: Michigan 38, Minnesota 17
Final Score: Michigan 28, Minnesota 14
Prediction: RIGHT
#1 Ohio State (4-0) @ #13 Iowa (4-0):
Vegas Says: Ohio State -7
Ahh, finally we have a game! Two ranked teams, ESPN College Gameday headed to Iowa City, and both Rose Bowl and potential National Championship implications. On the one side, we’ve got Iowa’s stifling defense, complemented with a scrappy QB and a determined– if not experienced– offense. On the other side, we’ve got an OSU offense capable of scoring from anywhere on the field at any time, complemented with a scrappy, talented– if not experienced– defense. This is coupled with a night game in Kinnick Stadium, which is not exactly a “friendly” place to play. So how will it turn out? Well, I simply haven’t completely bought into Iowa yet this year. I don’t know if they have the receivers to do it, and the loss of Greenway and Hodge on defense is going to hurt against an ultra-talented offense like Ohio State’s. And I know better than to think Troy Smith is going to walk into Kinnick Stadium even a bit intimidated. If Iowa knows what’s good for them, they’ll try to jam RB Albert Young directly into the OSU defense (as Texas should have done). But I don’t think it will be enough. OSU has the answers this year, and I don’t think anyone except Michigan has what it takes to run with them.
Prediction: Ohio State covers
Predicted Final Score: Ohio State 23, Iowa 13
Final Score: Ohio State 37, Iowa 17
Prediction: RIGHT
Purdue (4-0) @ #12 Notre Dame (3-1):
Vegas Says: Notre Dame -14
Purdue has been described as “the worst 4-0 team in the country”. So be it. I’ll be happy if next week they’re described as the “worst 5-0 team in the country”. I don’t care about rankings. Purdue is only one of 4 undefeated teams in the Big Ten, and the only unranked one. This team has its warts, but it’s a scrappy team that plays all-out. Notre Dame, however, is probably the most overrated 3-1 team in the country. They’ve squeaked by Georgia Tech, beat an ailing Penn State, got blown out by Michigan, and squeaked by a Michigan State team who gifted them the game. And we’re looking straight into third-straight rivalry game for Notre Dame. I posted my preview of the game, and not a lot has changed. If Purdue wins the turnover battle, I think they might win this game. But Painter has shown himself to be a bit interception-prone this year, and nobody knows how this team will play on the road. Purdue, if they cough up the ball, could lose it big. That being said, Brady Quinn shows a different side when he’s pressured, and Anthony Spencer has already had the pleasure of planting him into the turf. Purdue’s defense just might force a turnover or two. I worry about how damaging this game might be to my weekend if I get too hopeful, but I just can’t help it.
In all reality, there’s far too much emotion riding on this game for me to predict a winner. So I’ve got no final score for you. But unless Purdue is -2 in the turnover battle, they’re going to keep this game close. I have a feeling they’ll be playing on pure heart, but then again, that might elevate them to the next level. Either way, I think this will be a much better game than -14 points.
Prediction: Purdue beats the spread
Final Score: Notre Dame 35, Purdue 21
Prediction: NO DECISION
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A few more hours, and I’ll be put to the test. Frankly, I don’t care if I go 1-5 against the spread, and 0-5 straight up, as long as Purdue beats the spread and wins. But I hope to do a lot better than that, and redeem my lackluster performance of weeks 1 and 2.
UPDATE: So, I went 5-0 against the spread, 5-0 straight up. The Purdue game didn’t go as planned, but at least they equalled the spread, so the pick is basically a tie.
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nd is not overrated you idiot. they raped purdue and is gonna win the rest of their games.
Yep, overrated. I think every team above them in the rankings would be favored to beat them. And at least half the teams below them would be 60% or greater to beat them. They’ve gone 4-1, but were lucky to escape GT and MSU. Heck, MSU gifted them that game.
I’ve got a question for you, though. Is your atrocious grammar and punctuation a sign that you never attended ND and you’re just another bandwagon fan? Or is it a sign that ND is really that poor of an educational institution that they’d admit an idiot like yourself?
“they is gonna win the rest of their games”… Priceless.
“And we’re looking straight into third-straight rivalry game for Notre Dame.”
Don’t flatter yourself. ND has one true rival. They know who they are. If you have to ask yourself if it’s you, it isn’t.
When classifying series of lesser importance, practically every ND student, alum, player and fan would include Purdue toward the bottom of the list; I’d say it fits in just north of Pittsburgh and Stanford and just south of Michigan State and Navy. This one is rarely (if ever) circled on ND’s calendar, and it certainly wasn’t this year.
Some rivalries are one-way… Look at MSU/Michigan. Michigan gets up a lot more for OSU than for MSU, but MSU still considers Michigan their major rival.
Likewise, in recent times the Purdue/IU rivalry (at least in football) has been pretty weak. Purdue mostly overlooks IU these days (for ND), but IU is still circling the IU/PU matchup on their calendar every year.
I’d have to say that you consider ND’s only *true* rival to be Michigan, since you’re constantly battling to hold the “winningest college football team in history” record. But a lot of teams consider ND somewhat of a rival.
ND has a lot of teams who circle the ND game on their calendar. Just as Michigan and OSU do. It’s comes along with being ND. For Purdue, it’s even bigger, because we recruit against you, and it’s within the same state. That, and we play you every year, and it has become somewhat of a rivalry.
“Some rivalries are one-way… Look at MSU/Michigan. Michigan gets up a lot more for OSU than for MSU, but MSU still considers Michigan their major rival.”
The analogy here is that Purdue gets a lot more excited about playing ND than ND does about playing Purdue. This was my point. I dispute, though, that this creates a “rivalry,” which requires some level of roughly equal mutual interest. Otherwise, I’d just classify it as “a game that one team is really excited about.”
The original post was trying to argue that ND would be worn down, as the Purdue game was its third rivalry game in a row. Nonsense. As I’ve argued, this just isn’t a rivalry. I doubt that much of anyone who lined up for ND this weekend had this one circled in advance. There was no revenge to be had, as ND clobbered Purdue the year before. Most of ND’s recruits come from out of state, so it’s not like a lot of these guys passed on Purdue or know much about it other than that it’s in the same state. By that measure, a game between ND and Valpo would be a “rivalry.”
Finally, while Michigan is certainly a huge game on ND’s schedule every year (probably #2 on the list), Southern Cal is ND’s rival. Period. That interest level is rather mutual there: Ohio State is Michigan’s biggest rival, with ND probably coming in 2nd (or 3rd, depending on how the fan questioned feels about Michigan State).
Damn… ND/USC was my second guess
I see your point though. I would still say that a team like ND has to take teams like MSU or Purdue a little more seriously, since they know those teams will be bringing their “A” game a little more than, say, MSU gave to Illinois. But I’ll admit that it’s less likely to wear them down than if they actually considered it a rivalry.
nice job with illinois, ha- msu sux