The Unrepentant Individual

...just hanging around until Dec 21, 2012


September 12, 2006


MotoGP Update

I couldn’t watch the race this weekend, since I was in Vegas. Between swimming in the pool, fishing, and watching football, it just didn’t work out. But I managed to catch the last 8-9 laps today when I was home for lunch, and WOW! was that a good race!

I caught up with it watching Loris Capirossi closely following Valentino Rossi at the front. Dani Pedrosa in 3rd and Nicky Hayden in 4th were close enough that they were in some of the video frames, but far enough back to be a non-factor. Capirossi was clearly able to keep up with Rossi, but not having a lot of luck trying to pass. He eventually, with about 6 laps to go, found some spots where he could pass Rossi on the brakes. Unfortunately for him, each of those passes he found himself running wide, with Rossi retaking first place. They jockeyed back and forth for a while (something you won’t see in Formula 1), and Rossi retook the lead. For the next couple laps, you can clearly see that Rossi is better through the tight sections of the track, and in the straighter sections, Capirossi stronger on the horsepower of the Ducati. With just over a lap to go, Capirossi took the lead. Rossi left a corner out, leaving him about 12 bike lengths behind Capirossi at the start-finish line. He fought valiantly to catch Capirossi, and on the last few corners, passed him for the lead.

Capirossi had a great race, and yet Rossi showed why he’s won so many world championships. Rossi just has that extra level in him. They put on a great race, passing each other with mere inches to spare at times. They showed why they’re both world-class racers, and how there can be a certain measure of trust when you’re on a 300-lb motorcycle a foot away from another racer traveling 150 mph. A great race, one of the more exciting I’ve seen this year, and while it didn’t have much in the way of championship implications, it certainly thrilled.

As for the championship, Hayden’s lead has dropped to 22 points over Pedrosa, and 26 points over Rossi. With 4 races to go, it’s tightening up, and a few 1st place finishes by Rossi can put an end to Hayden’s championship if he can’t finish right behind Rossi. And a mechanical issue or a crash now pretty much means Hayden is done for. This year isn’t over, and even Rossi can pull out another championship if the breaks fall right. We got another race coming up this Sunday, the Australian GP at 4:00 Eastern on Speed TV. I’ll guarantee some fireworks, so give it your attention if you dare get yourself hooked on this sport…

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 10:03 pm || Permalink || Comments Off || Trackback URL || Categories: Motorcycles/Racing



9/11 Rememberance

In the comments to my last post, Lucy Stern asked where I was on 9/11. I wasn’t going to do the 9/11 rememberance thing, as there are a few million other people with more interesting things to say about it than I do. But I’ll indulge, since asked…

The weekend before 9/11, I was in Las Vegas, meeting the wife’s (girlfriend at the time) family for the first time. Which is odd, because 5 years later, the weekend before 9/11 I again was in Vegas. It was her sister’s 21st birthday, and everyone of legal age (aunts, uncles, etc) was there. It was, to put it mildly, overwhelming. Her family is outgoing and parties, my family sits around and talks a lot. So it was strange a few mornings later, when we’re getting ready for work and she gets a phone call. We were on the west coast (San Jose), so when she got a call from her mom very early in the morning, it was a tad unusual. When I saw her face just drop on the phone, my first thought was that one of those people I had just gotten the chance to meet had had an accident or something.

She quickly told me to turn on CNN, and then we watched as everything happened. I don’t even quite recall whether the second plane had hit yet, but I do know that the towers hadn’t fallen. We weren’t sure what to do, but it was a work day, so we went to work. I don’t know if I’ve ever had a less productive day in my life. With my coworkers, the feeling of shock subsided, only to be replaced by rage. Maybe it’s the insulation of being American, or the fact that I was merely 23 and hadn’t had a rough life, but the idea that someone would come and do this was preposterous. There aren’t a lot of things that get me to respond with a lot of emotion. Purdue football is one of them. People that want to kill me and destroy everything I live for is another.

After only a few hours of work, we got the heck out of there. My wife, who worked a lot closer to San Francisco (and tall buildings) wanted to get back down to San Jose. We met up with some friends, watched the news, and just did what we had to do to start coping with the situation. Being as young as I am, I never quite understood how people could remember exactly where they were and what they were doing when they heard about JFK’s assassination. Until 9/11. Life goes on, but some things will never be forgotten.

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 8:42 pm || Permalink || Comments (1) || Trackback URL || Categories: Personal Life, Terrorism



Just Wondering

If we had 8 fingers instead of 10, would we be using an Octal numbering system instead of Decimal?


The Unrepentant Individual linked with 9/11 Rememberance
Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 3:40 pm || Permalink || Comments (5) || Trackback URL || Categories: Snark


September 11, 2006


Week 2 College Football Round-Up

Well, my picks went 1-4, and now I’m 2-7 on the season. It’s one of those situations where I feel like my best advice would be to bet opposite me, because I’ve been picking wrong with surprising consistency.

First things first, my beloved Boilermakers. I thought after allowing Indiana State to post 35 points, they were going to come out playing with a chip on their shoulder. And in a sense, they did. Miami only scored 3 on them in the first half. But in the second half, they just started to wear down. QB Curtis Painter threw 3 interceptions, and we failed to recover a Miami onside kick early in the game, which probably counts for 4 turnovers. They say that when a team wins the TO battle, they’re very likely to win. And yet Purdue pulled it out. There are so many things about this game that make me worry. And there are a lot of things that give me hope. Purdue is a young team, and they’re improving. Miami is a better team than I expected. I think next week against Ball State, Purdue will win a bit more convincingly, and then against Minnesota, they get a real test. I think they’ll be 4-0 facing Notre Dame, and then we’ll see if they’ve learned enough to be a big-time team. I don’t expect them to beat the F***ing Irish, but if they keep it competitive, I’ll be very pleased.

Next, of course, is those F***ing Irish. They beat Penn State like a red-headed stepchild. It was so one-sided, with a combination of poor play and stupid mistakes by Penn State that this game was decided by halftime. I don’t want to give credit to Notre Dame here, but I have to admit that they made full use of Penn State’s mistakes. I still think Notre Dame is overrated, but I’m really thinking that PSU QB Anthony Morelli is living up to his reputation (i.e. can’t handle pressure). I was predicting a close PSU victory, thinking that PSU would stand a very good chance of beating the spread. Unfortunately, though, they make crucial mistakes, and Notre Dame capitalized on every one of them. Notre Dame still has two weeks to prove themselves, and it’s against a strong Michigan team and a dangerous game at Michigan State. I’m beginning (although it makes me want to hurl) to buy into a bit of the Charlie Weis hype, as he had a great game plan against PSU. Michigan, though, has been my dark-horse team to win the Big Ten, as they’re a complete team. Notre Dame hasn’t played a complete team yet, and this coming week will be interesting.

Last is the team I don’t consider complete, the Ohio State Buckeyes. For an incomplete team, though, they’re pretty impressive! Oddly enough, the pick that I said I wasn’t sure of ended up going my way, and I missed on all three of the picks I was confident in. And what makes it even stranger is the way the game played out. I said that this game would come down to Colt McCoy forced into making mistakes, and Troy Smith playing like a champion. I personally think that if the early UT turnover hadn’t happened, the game wouldn’t have been so lopsided. Texas freshman QB Colt McCoy engineered a drive deep into OSU territory with an 0-0 score. Had they scored, most of the major pressure would have lifted off his shoulders, making him a lot less likely to crack. Instead, OSU got the turnover, scored a touchdown, and put the pressure on the Texas offense to keep up. Colt McCoy, as any freshman is expected to do, made a couple inopportune mistakes, and that was that. Ohio State, for a team with still a few questions on defense, looks incredible. They’ve shown already that the only real competition on their schedule is the final regular-season game against Michigan, and Troy Smith and Jim Tressel seem to play well against the Wolverines.

Around the league, Iowa, Tennessee and Florida State also found themselves in nailbiters. Northwestern lost to a Div I-AA team, and Cal rebounded from their embarrassment in Knoxville to crush Minnesota. A lot of strong teams struggled a tad more than expected. But with each week, a little more information is gleaned.

Hopefully, the stupidity I’ve exhibited early in the season, much like the mediocre play my Boilermaker defense has been showing, will lead to learning and improvement. I’m starting to see how some of these teams are playing out. I’ll see what sort of picks I can make this weekend, and perhaps I’ll do a tad better.

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 10:53 pm || Permalink || Comments (2) || Trackback URL || Categories: College Football


September 9, 2006


2006 NCAA Football Picks – Week 2

Alternate Title: Why the Big Ten rules… Yes, this one is going to be a bit B10-dominated… (Note: all lines taken at 2:00 PM Thursday)

Miami (OH) @ Purdue:
Vegas Says: Purdue -17

Purdue didn’t play very well on defense last week, and had some definite miscues. That’s tough to see, since they did score 60 points and won by 25. But against a Div I-AA team, it should have been bigger. Miami, on the other hand, ended up losing to Northwestern by a score of 21-3. Northwestern is not expected to be very strong this year. I think Vegas is underestimating Purdue in this game in a big way. Purdue will continue scoring at will, and I expect their defense to make major strides. I don’t see how it will be this close.

Prediction: Purdue covers
Predicted final score: Purdue 52, Miami 10

UPDATE: Final Score: Purdue 38, Miami 31 OT
Result: WRONG

Indiana @ Ball State:
Vegas Says: Indiana -3.5

Indiana is expected to be a bottom-dweller in the Big Ten this year. With a relatively new coach, Terry Hoeppner, they’re making improvements, but they have a lot of catching up to do. But only 3.5 point favorites on Ball State? Yes, BSU won 38-20 over Eastern Michigan last week. But they gave up 435 yards of offense in the process. Indiana should be a better team, top to bottom, than BSU, and shouldn’t let the game be this close.

Prediction: Indiana covers
Predicted final score: Indiana 33, Ball State 24

UPDATE: Final Score: Indiana 24, Ball State 23
Result: WRONG

Minnesota @ #22 Cal:
Vegas Says: Cal -7.5

This is a tough one to pick. Cal was ranked #9 going into their game @ Tennessee, and got absolutely embarrassed. They gave up 500+ yards, and Tennessee ran all over them. That doesn’t bode well against a team like Minnesota, who spits out 200 yards rushing week-in and week-out. Minnesota is a team who has had quite a few years with multiple backs going over 1000 yards. With two young backs, they can still put up numbers, and with senior QB Brian Cupito throwing to receivers Wheelwright, Payne, and TE Spaeth, Minnesota is definitely going to be scoring some points. Looking at the other side, though, Cal isn’t going to be held to 18. Tennessee’s defense is much better than Minnesota’s, even if Minny shut out Kent St last weekend. And Cal is going to come out with something to prove, so I see them racking up yards and points on Minnesota. I’m not sure what the over/under is on this game, but I’d almost advise taking the over blind. I think Cal will take the win here, but a team that gives up 200+ rushing yards to Tennessee is going to do the same to Minnesota, and I don’t see this being a blowout.

Prediction: Minnesota beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Cal 38, Minnesota 34

UPDATE: Final Score: Cal 42, Minnesota 17
Result: WRONG

#19 Penn State @ #4 Notre Dame:
Vegas Says: Notre Dame -7.5

Notre Dame is overrated, and Georgia Tech should have beat them. Penn State has a better offense and a better defense than Georgia Tech, and equally should beat them. Penn State has arguably the best linebacking corps in the country, as well as a very strong defensive line, so I think they’ll shut down Darius Walker and batter Brady Quinn all game long. As Purdue found out a few years ago, the best way to beat Brady Quinn is to lay the hits on him early and often. With Notre Dame’s offensive line woes, I don’t see how they can protect Quinn, and if he doesn’t have time to throw, big-name WR Jeff Snuffuluffagus and the even more explosive Rhema McKnight can’t save him. The real question, though, is Penn State’s offense. They were held to under 100 yards rushing by Akron, and they can’t let themselves be pushed into being one-dimensional against Notre Dame. Morelli played quite well against Akron, and Notre Dame’s secondary and linebackers aren’t much to speak of, but unless PSU establishes a ground game, it might be tough to put up a lot of points. In the end, I think Notre Dame’s offense will play better than they did last week, but it’s not going to be enough. Notre Dame gets exposed this week for the frauds that they are.

Prediction: Penn State beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Penn State 31, Notre Dame 27

UPDATE: Final Score: Notre Dame 41, Penn State 17
Result: WRONG

#1 Ohio State @ #2 Texas:
Vegas Says: Texas -2.5

They say home field advantage is worth 3 points. So the oddsmakers think these are two completely evenly-matched teams, and are giving Texas the edge since it will be played at home. In a lot of ways, I think Texas is actually even a better team on paper. Ohio State’s weakness is their defense, which gave up over 270 yards (170 rush, 114 receiving) to Garrett Wolfe of Northern Illinois last week. The OSU defense has plenty of talent, but they’re replacing 9 players from last year’s squad, and that’s not easy for any team. Texas has a much better offensive line than NIU, and their offensive philosophy will be very simple. They’re going to pound the ball straight at Ohio State until OSU proves they can stop it. You beat a speedy defense by going straight at it, and with the power Texas brings, they should be able to move the ball on the ground, opening up everything else. On the other side, though, OSU’s offense should be stellar. With Troy Smith reminiscent of a young Vince Young, a talented backfield and superstar WR Ted Ginn, they’re going to give Texas some fits on defense. With Texas’ defense missing their best cornerback, Tarell Brown, arrested on drugs and weapons charges, they’re going to have a tough time stopping Ginn. But let’s be honest. This is a defense that held North Texas, last week’s opponent, to 95 total offensive yards. Even without Brown, they’re going to be very, very tough.

On paper, Texas should be able to control the ground against OSU’s defense. And OSU should be able to score, but not with any ease, against Texas’ D. So why do I think OSU is going to win? Colt McCoy has talent, but hasn’t proven he’s can carry the team the way Vince Young used to. Troy Smith, on the other hand, has proven himself. He’s beaten Michigan twice, taking control of the game late to earn the win. Against Notre Dame last year in the Fiesta Bowl, he took control when the game was still close, and turned it into a rout. Troy Smith is a gamer, and he will play with poise and not make crucial mistakes. I think McCoy, though, makes at least one (probably two) big mistakes. Not to take away from him, but he’s a freshman in his second start, playing against the #1 team in the country. That’s a lot of pressure.

Prediction: Ohio State beats the spread
Predicted final score: OSU 28, Texas 27

UPDATE: Final Score: Ohio State 24, Texas 7
Result: RIGHT

Why do I say it’s the week of the Big Ten? Because I picked them in every game this week. I don’t know if that means I’m just a homer. Cal might prove me wrong, as might Texas, but I’m pretty confident of my other three picks.

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 1:00 am || Permalink || Comments (5) || Trackback URL || Categories: College Football, Predictions


September 8, 2006


This Just In: Tall People Are Smarter!

This sounds completely plausible to me

Childhood scores on intelligence tests show a correlation between height and cognitive ability, and this remains true throughout life, they report.

Yet more evidence that Edmund Burke was right: Prejudices can be useful–if short people are being discriminated against in the job market, it’s only because (statistically speaking) they’re dumb as a box of rocks.

Yep… Being tall has its advantages. Except on airplanes. That sucks. But being as smart and successful as I am, I am getting more and more upgrades to first class these days, so that’s not as big of a problem any more…

Hat Tip: Warren Meyer (6′4″)

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 12:01 am || Permalink || Comments (1) || Trackback URL || Categories: Around The 'Sphere, News, Personal Life, Science, Snark


September 7, 2006


Keep Your Mouths Shut – The FEC Is Watching

From Coyote Blog, lamenting McCain-Feingold:

In a stunning beat down on one of America’s longest-held and most sacred principles, your first ammendment rights to criticize incumbent politicians, at least on radio and TV, are suspended from now until the November 7 election. Congress has decided, and incredibly the Supreme Court has concurred, that only members of the media, including intellectual giants like Bill O’Reilly and Keith Olbermann, can legally criticize sitting politicians on TV and radio in the runup to the election. These restrictions also came very, very close to applying to this and all other blogs. John McCain, Russ Feingold, and everyone who voted for this un-American incumbent protection act need to be voted out of office at our next opportunity.

Watch what you say over the next couple months, folks. You never can be too sure who’s listening.

Actually, screw that. Say whatever you want. The last thing we want to do is obey.

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 2:28 pm || Permalink || Comments Off || Trackback URL || Categories: Around The 'Sphere, Constitution, Internet, Libertarianism, Media



New NCAA Rules

For those of you who haven’t been paying too much attention to college football yet, there was a major rule change regarding the clock for the 2006 season. In an effort to shorten game time for the TV networks, they’ve decided to start the game clock on changes of possession when the ball is set.

In essense, it has reduced the number of offensive plays in the game by about 15 or so. This completely changes the game, particularly late-game clock management. The potential for exciting late-game comebacks is highly reduced. Time-outs become absolutely crucial, and as was seen in the FSU-Miami game, Miami was forced to take a time-out AFTER PUNTING THE BALL AWAY, which is absolutely ridiculous.

Among fans, players, and coaches, these changes are near-universally despised. It’s been such a change to the game that there is already a web-site taking an online petition to get the NCAA to change the rules back. As far as I’m concerned, if the TV networks want to cut down the game time, they can reduce their number of TV timeouts.

Check out the petition at:

http://www.wehatethenewclockrules.com/

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 9:41 am || Permalink || Comments (2) || Trackback URL || Categories: College Football


September 6, 2006


Fat Cats Have Full Bellies

It must appear so, because they’ve been nice enough to drop gas prices. That’s the only explanation I have for coming back from Hawaii to see gas prices under $2.50 a gallon here in GA.

I guess those guys in their wood-paneled conference room where they set the nation’s gas prices have decided that they’ve been making enough profit lately, and that while they were gouging us before, they’ve decided to change their ways and play nicely.

Either that, or we’ve had news of potential increases in supply. But the laws of supply and demand are just for economists, I prefer to blame oil execs.

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 10:21 am || Permalink || Comments (1) || Trackback URL || Categories: Economics, Politics, Snark


September 5, 2006


Week 1 College Football Round-Up

Well, I went 1-3 against the spread in my picked games… Not good. But there were a lot of things I saw this week that surprised me, so here’s what I’m seeing from a few of the interesting games.

First things first, my Purdue Boilermakers started their season with a 60-35 win over Indiana State. Indiana State is a Div I-AA school that went 0-11 last year, and it’s quite a bit embarrassing to see that they put up so many points. Of course, 14 of those points were on special teams miscues, and 7 were last-minute garbage points against the 2nd-string D, but I didn’t like the 14 they earned. Purdue’s got a young defense, and I wouldn’t have been surprised to see a long pass for a TD on a young cornerback’s blown coverage. But ISU scored 14 points running straight at the defense. Purdue’s D should have the talent to stop that. My only consolation is that the defensive coordinator, Brock Spack, said after the game that they’d had a very vanilla gameplan, to see which of these young players would make plays. I can only hope when they start bringing the pressure and getting back to Purdue-style defense, we’ll have an improvement. On the bright side, Purdue hung 60 points on ISU, with 5 straight touchdown drives in the second half. When ISU started making it a close game, they responded with sustained drives down the field.

On to the hated rival, Notre Dame. I said they’d cover the 7-point spread, with a serious desire that my pick would be wrong. They beat Georgia Tech 14-10, and didn’t look good at all while doing it. Their defense wasn’t the key to stopping Georgia Tech, as far as I could see, it was poor playcalling and an inconsistent Reggie Ball. Even then, there were a couple of lucky breaks, including a suspect personal foul to keep ND’s second scoring drive alive, and a circus-grab on 3rd Down by Calvin Johnson of GT that was later ruled not a catch on replay, although I think there wasn’t enough evidence to overturn. Notre Dame’s offense faltered, their offensive line was unable to protect Brady Quinn, and it seemed like the loss of safety-valve tight end Anthony Fasano took away one of Quinn’s favorite targets. They way they looked, I think Penn State’s and Michigan’s defense can really shut down that offense. I think they lose their next two (at least).

The week appeared to revolve around new quarterbacks at the premier programs showing their worth. Texas had Colt McCoy out putting up huge numbers against North Texas. With a name like Colt McCoy, I think he’s suited to Texas… I thought before this week that Ohio State would be a big favorite against UT next week, but now I’m not so sure. And in a true shock, USC proved they really may be a dynasty, with new QB John David Booty putting up huge numbers while surrounded by new players at all the skill positions.

Northwestern responded to the graduation of their star starting QB, Bret Basanez, and their star MLB, Jim McGarigle (the anchor of their defense the last few years), along with the all-too-early death of head coach Randy Walker by coming out and dominating Miami (OH) with a 21-3 score. I’ve been predicting Northwestern will have a down year, so either they’re going to surprise a lot of people, or Miami is just bad. Purdue plays Miami this Saturday, and Northwestern later this year, so I’m hoping it’s a little of both.

Beyond all this, it was the usual unexpected play of week 1. Some great teams came out flat. Some mediocre teams looked a lot better than they really are. This weekend, we’ve got two big ones, Penn State @ Notre Dame, and Ohio State @ Texas. Though I’ll be in Vegas with my wife for the “family” part of her birthday celebration, I’m hoping to steal away and watch those games… :-D

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 5:46 pm || Permalink || Comments (2) || Trackback URL || Categories: College Football



Carnival of Liberty 61 is up…

At Quotulatiousness… Not sure what that name means. Check it out anyway.

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 9:59 am || Permalink || Comments Off || Trackback URL || Categories: Around The 'Sphere, Carnivals


September 4, 2006


More Maui Pics

Since they’re large, I’ll put them mostly below the fold… But here is one of the best waterfalls we found on the Road to Hana. It’s the dry season, so many of those falls were dry or trickling…

waterfall2

Read more of this entry… »

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 3:23 pm || Permalink || Comments (2) || Trackback URL || Categories: Personal Life


September 2, 2006


Maui Pics

Another jet-lagged morning where I was up at 3 AM, so before the wife and I head off to an early breakfast, I figured I’d post some pics…

We had planned to do the Road to Hana yesterday, but there was a fire (no, I wasn’t involved) closing the main road between the hotel we’re at and the rest of the island. So we were stranded here, which wasn’t that bad, as we got time to see a lot of the area, do some snorkeling, etc…

Me, at the hotel, before leaving for dinner:

Brad

The wife, at a little vista above the cove where we went snorkeling:

Joanna

And last, but not least, a picture of me on the beach. It’s below the fold, because frankly, nobody needs to see this…

Read more of this entry… »

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 10:52 am || Permalink || Comments Off || Trackback URL || Categories: Personal Life


September 1, 2006


2006 NCAA Football Picks – Week 1

Alright folks, it’s that time of year again. For at least a few more hours, I’m still perfect on my picks for this year. Easy to do when I haven’t made a prediction yet, right!

So here’s how it works. Every week, by Saturday morning I’ll predict somewhere in the range of 4-6 games, based on who’s playing and who’s favored. For the most part, I’ll only be trying to pick relatively big games, because nobody cares if I correctly predict Kent St vs. Nichols St (no, you don’t lose points if you’ve never heard of either school). When possible, I’ll also only be predicting fairly even games. When a team is favored by 37 points, it’s never easy to tell if they’ll jump out to a 20-point lead and then put in the 2nd and 3rd stringers, or if they’ll play like Texas Tech and run up the score at every opportunity. All picks will be against-the-spread, and based upon the lines found at Sportsbook.com at whatever time I do the picks. The lines may move as the game approaches, so the line I use will usually be the day before the game, or the morning of the game, not updated at the time the game starts. So it’s time to rock & roll with Week 1, which is always a tough week to make any meaningful predictions…

Wisconsin @ Bowling Green:
Vegas says: Wisconsin -10.5

This is a tough one. Wisconsin graduated most of their offense. They’re working with one offensive lineman, and their starting QB (who will probably miss this game due to surgery. They did have one more player returning, WR Marcus Randle-El, but he was sidelined for the season due to surgery. And last year’s head coach, Barry Alvarez, moved one rung up on the ladder to Athletic Director, with defensive coordinator Bret Bielema taking over the reins. There are some major-league holes on this team. On the other sideline, Bowling Green is also in the middle of a rebuilding year. With new players all over the field, it’s not going to be easy for any team to find a rhythm. I think Wisconsin wins this game, but I don’t think they cover.

Prediction: Bowling Green beats the spread.
Predicted final score: Wisconsin 24, Bowling Green 20

UPDATE: Final Score: Wisconsin 35, Bowling Green 14
Result: WRONG

#9 UC-Berkeley (Cal) @ #23 Tennessee:
Vegas says: Cal -2.5

This is one of those “Big Games” that you rarely see in non-conference play. Cal is a dark horse pick to win it all this year, and Tennessee is a national powerhouse coming off a bad year, looking for redemption. This is going to be a major-league clash. Cal seems to be starting with a fresh QB, but Tennessee seems to be starting with a new defensive front 7. Besides that, though, both teams are solid. This game will be played @ Tennessee, at 5:30 PM, which means the crowd of 108,000+ will be drunk and disorderly, ready to ensure that the only sound that Cal QB Nate Longshore is able to hear is the frenzied beating of his scared little heart. I think the 12th man makes the difference in this one…

Prediction: Tennessee beats the spread
Predicted final score: Tennessee 27, Cal 25

UPDATE: Final Score: Tennessee 35, Cal 18
Result: RIGHT

#2 Notre Dame @ Georgia Tech:
Vegas says: Notre Dame -7

Oh, how I’ve looked over this game in my head. As you all well know, I hate Notre Dame. The F***ing Irish are beneficiaries of a media that gives them so much undeserved respect that it makes me sick. Of course, watching them lose bowl game after bowl game does lessen the sting. But the media’s already crowned Charlie Weis as the second coming, and are ready to pay millions to Brady Quinn for stud duty with their daughters. It’s just sick and wrong, sick and wrong. And I don’t doubt they’re overrated. They lost three very productive receivers (Stovall, Shelton, and Fasano), as well as their best linebackers. Their cornerbacks suck, and should be regularly embarrassed by pass-happy teams. Georgia Tech should have a strong defense, and with senior QB Reggie Ball and star WR Calvin Johnson, could make this game competitive. But even as much as I hate the hype, I don’t think they can outscore the Irish. Reggie Ball is relatively inconsistent, and for all the hype, Brady Quinn is a very talented QB. I hope to god I’m wrong, but I think the Irish are 7 points better than Tech. An 11-point spread, I might pick Tech, but I can’t do it for 7.

Prediction: Notre Dame covers
Predicted final score: Notre Dame 34, Georgia Tech 21

UPDATE: Final Score: Notre Dame 14, Georgia Tech 10
Result: WRONG

#11 Florida State @ #12 Miami (Monday):
Vegas says: Miami -3

This game is the yearly clash of the Titans. FSU & Miami is the opening bookend to college football, with Michigan & OSU on the back end. And this game shouldn’t disappoint. Really, as with most football games, this might come down to the trenches. Miami has some holes to fill on the offensive line, and a team like FSU is not going to make it easy. This year, though, may be one of the best chances for Miami to survive. FSU lost two starters to the NFL on the defensive line, as well as a couple of linebackers. For Miami to win, they need to protect the QB. Their new OL against FSU’s new faces in the front 7 should be enough of a draw to give Miami what it takes to have the advantage in that matchup. Miami’s defense should be stifling, and while FSU has all sorts of speed and a proven leader at QB, Miami should have an edge here as well. I think Miami covers.

Prediction: Miami covers
Predicted final score: Miami 24, FSU 17

UPDATE: Final Score: FSU 13, Miami 10
Result: WRONG

I won’t be providing live updates, since I’m 6 hours west of most of these games.

UPDATE: Looks like I’m 1-3 in the first week. Not good, but as I said, this is a tough week to predict, as there’s no real strong information to base a pick on…

Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 9:58 pm || Permalink || Comments Off || Trackback URL || Categories: College Football, Predictions

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