October 7, 2006
2006 NCAA Football Predictions — Week 6
So far on the year, following my 5-0 performance last week, I’ve finally crested the 50% mark against the spread, with a 13-12 record. And likewise I was 5-0 straight up, for a total record so far of 20-6. I don’t know how easy it will be to keep my performance up, but it doesn’t look like picking against whoever I pick will be such a good strategy any more!
I’m going out-of-conference more this week than usual, because there aren’t very many good matchups in the Big Ten.
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Indiana (2-3) @ Illinois (2-3):
Vegas Says: Illinois -8.5
The worst team in the Big Ten might be decided tomorrow (although Northwestern may fight for that “honor”), in the Basement Bowl of the Big Ten. I’d say these teams were playing like mid-level MAC teams, but that would be a colossal insult to a fine mid-major conference like the MAC. Both teams suck. Indiana is facing 3 straight losses, after beating Western Michigan and squeaking by Ball State. Illinois had a freak win over Michigan State last week, after losing three following their opening win against Eastern Illinois. Illinois seems to actually be getting better each week, though, and Indiana seems to be getting worse. This game, I think Illinois will be expecting their luck to continue, behind the dual-threat of freshman QB Juice Williams. Indiana, likewise, has benched their starting QB for dual-threat freshman QB Kellen Lewis, who’s having a much tougher time than Williams.
This game, I think Lewis finally puts it together, gets the ball to star WR James Hardy, and Indiana takes this one.
Prediction: Indiana beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Indiana 27, Illinois 23
Final Score: Indiana 34, Illinois 32
Prediction: RIGHT
Penn State (3-2) @ Minnesota (2-3):
Vegas Says: Penn State -3
Here we’re looking at two programs fighting to see where in the middle of the Big Ten pack they’ll end up. Neither team looks all that good, but both have too much talent to be where Illinois or Indiana sits. And this may be a must-win game for either team, as they won’t face much easy competition this year. There’s a lot riding on this game, and both teams know it. A lot of people have this as their upset pick of the week.
But I just don’t see it. For Minnesota to thrive, they need to be successful running the ball. You’re not going to establish the run against Penn State and their incredible linebackers unless you can be balanced, and Minnesota can’t be balanced. Penn State has been inconsistent on offense, but playing a defense like Minnesota is a sure way to solve some offensive issues. Penn State dominates this game.
Prediction: Penn State covers
Predicted Final Score: Penn State 24, Minnesota 16
Final Score: Penn State 28, Minnesota 27 OT
Prediction: WRONG
#13 Tennessee (4-1) @ #10 Georgia (5-0):
Vegas Says: Tennessee -2.5
I said last week that Purdue was considered the worst 4-0 team in the country. Georgia is one of the worst 5-0 teams in the country. They have a very strong defense, but have had offensive woes all year. Joe Tereshinski III was named the QB starter at the beginning of the season, but soon got injured. The fans got to see their chosen QB (Matt Stafford), and quickly started clamoring for Joe T to come back. Well, he’s finally back from the injury, facing one of the best defenses he’ll see all year. Tennessee is a team that is still shooting to gain back some of the respect they lost after last year’s debacle of a season. They dominated Cal, barely beat a mediocre Air Force team, lost a very tight game to Florida, and then blew the doors off patsies Marshall and Memphis.
This game comes down to a “prove it” message to both teams. Tennessee must prove that they’re the second-best team in the SEC East, behind Florida. Georgia must prove that they can play offense. And it’ll all be played out in a night game in Athens. I think this might be a decent game for a half, maybe into 3 quarters, but I just don’t Georgia keeping their offensive performance consistent enough to get it done. Especially when their starting QB hasn’t played a snap for nearly 4 games. Tennessee has this one.
Prediction: Tennessee covers
Predicted Final Score: Tennessee 31, Georgia 17
Final Score: Tennessee 51, Georgia 33
Prediction: RIGHT
#7 Texas (4-1) @ #14 Oklahoma (3-1):
Vegas Says: Texas -4
Ahh, rivalry games. Gotta love it. Any college football rivalry that has its own beer is definitely worth its salt. There’s some history here too, as Mack Brown was unable to beat Bob Stoops until he had all-world QB Vince Young on his team. Well, this year he’s got a freshman, Colt McCoy, who has nothing on Vince. But, that’s not a huge issue, as this is going to be a serious Big 12 slugfest. I’d call it three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust, but with these defenses, it’s going to be run-run-incomplete pass-punt, played out over and over.
I think Texas is going to win this game, but it’s not going to be easy. Oklahoma has arguably the nation’s best college football player, Adrian Peterson, carrying the ball. And that’s all they’ve got. Texas has the more balanced offense, but a freshman QB who might not quite be ready for the atmosphere he’s walking into. I think when the dust settles, Texas is two-dimensional on offense, and has the best defense Oklahoma has seen all year. Unless Mack Brown chokes, Texas will take it.
Prediction: Texas covers
Predicted Final Score: Texas 20, Oklahoma 13
Final Score: Texas 28, Oklahoma 10
Prediction: RIGHT
#9 LSU (4-1) @ #5 Florida (5-0):
Vegas Says: Florida -1
I’ve said before that home field advantage counts for 3 points, so the bookies are leaning towards LSU being a better team. Florida has been inconsistent on offense, LSU has blown the doors off everyone except Auburn, and could only put 3 points on the Auburn defense. The over/under on this game is 40.5 points, I suggest you take the under.
There’s one X factor going on, and that’s the injury to Florida RB DeShawn Wynn. Wynn not playing is the difference maker tomorrow. LSU won’t dominate on offense, but they’ve got an absolutely incredible defense, and should be able to slow down Florida’s passing attack. LSU takes it.
Prediction: LSU beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: LSU 13, Florida 10
Final Score: Florida 23, LSU 10
Prediction: WRONG
Purdue (4-1) @ #19 Iowa (4-1):
Vegas Says: Iowa -11
What is there to say about this game? Iowa’s offense has looked downright unimpressive this year, partly due to QB Drew Tate’s strained abdominal muscle, which has inhibited his throwing muscle. Of course, they’re going against Purdue’s defense, which has looked bad all year. Purdue’s offense has looked great all year, and for a few small errors, would have given the Irish a serious run for their money last Saturday. But they’re up against Iowa’s defense, by far the best D they’ve played all year.
This game comes down to matchups. Purdue’s secondary has been ailing, but Iowa lost two star WR’s to graduation last year, which should take a little pressure off. They’ll focus on RB Albert Young and TE Scott Chandler, who are the heart of the Iowa offense. That relies on Purdue’s linebackers having a decent day, but they’re one of the strongest parts of our defense. Opposite we have Iowa’s defense, who lost two star LB’s to graduation, and has been battling injury in the defensive backfield. Purdue’s strength is our passing game and our stable of game-breaking receivers, attacking the weak part of the Iowa D. We should see a lot of passes to TE Dustin Keller, a 6′5″, 4.5, athletic freak of nature who will mostly face linebacker coverage all game.
I can’t tell you whether Purdue will win this game, and as usual, there’s too much emotion for me to make a prediction anyway. I really think we match up well against Iowa, so I’ll all but guarantee we beat this spread.
Prediction: Purdue beats the spread
Final Score: Iowa 47, Purdue 17
Prediction: WRONG, and I don’t want to talk about it
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3-3 Against the spread this week, and 4-1 straight up. Giving me a total year of 16-15 against the spread, and 24-7 straight up.
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