October 14, 2006
2006 NCAA Football Predictions — Week 7
So we’re back at it. I’m 16-15 against the spread so far, 24-7 straight up. We’ve got some good games this week, though, and they may not be easy picks. Can Michigan continue it’s lights-out play against Penn State without star WR Mario Manningham? Can Florida get up for a game at Auburn after their emotional victory over LSU? And will Rutgers be able to adjust to the 50-year-old offense that Navy runs to remain undefeated? And can Purdue rebound from their pounding at Iowa to take down Northwestern, a game they should dominate by all measures? We’ll all see, in just a few hours.
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Minnesota (2-4) @ #25 Wisconsin (5-1)
Vegas Says: Wisconsin -8
Ahh, a rivalry game. The battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. There’s a lot of emotion riding on this game, and that usually means you can throw out the predictions. Not in this one, though, because Wisconsin is playing tremendous defense, the game is at Wisconsin, and Minnesota is in a bit of a tailspin. My only worry is that because this game is going to be played entirely on the ground, it might be over too quickly, runs burning up the clock, for the score to get large enough for Wisconsin to cover their 8. I’m guessing with an over/under of 50, it might be good to take the under. And this game will probably barely last 3 hours, with the clock running, unless Minnesota gets down big and has to go to the air.
Prediction: Wisconsin covers
Predicted Final Score: Wisconsin 27, Minnesota 17
Final Score: Wisconsin 48, Minnesota 12
Prediction: RIGHT
#24 Rutgers (5-0) @ Navy (5-1)
Vegas Says: Navy -2.5
Wow, a tough one. We’ve got the #1 rushing offense in the nation (Navy) up against the #5 scoring defense in the nation. Rutgers’ offense appears to be better than Navy’s D, but then, Navy has played much tougher competition, so the stats might be a bit skewed. If Minny/Wisky barely lasts 3 hours, the way these teams run, the game will be over even quicker. Really, when it comes down to it, I think Rutgers is a bit more complete of a team. This one is going to be close, but I’m going to have to lean their way.
Prediction: Rutgers beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Rutgers 24, Navy 21
Final Score: Rutgers 34, Navy 0
Prediction: RIGHT
UCLA (4-1) @ #18 Oregon (4-1)
Vegas Says: Oregon -9
Both teams have an offense. UCLA has a defense. But UCLA’s offense will be without starting QB Ben Olsen, and replacement Patrick Cowan will be making his first start against a ranked team on the road. I think UCLA has a defense to contain Oregon, and keep this close. But Cowan’s rookie mistakes change the equation for the worse. Between a stalled drive here or there, potential turnovers, and the field position that Oregon will get as a result, I think they take this one.
Prediction: Oregon covers
Predicted Final Score: Oregon 31, UCLA 20
Final Score: Oregon 30, UCLA 20
Prediction: RIGHT
#4 Michigan (6-0) @ Penn State (4-2)
Vegas says: Michigan -6
-6?! Even without Manningham, I don’t see it. Michigan, without Manningham and against the Penn State defense, might have some trouble scoring. They’ll need to establish Mike Hart running the football, get the tight ends into the receiving game to draw off the linebackers, and then hope that Steve Breaston and Adrian Arrington can make up for Manningham’s lack of presence. But we all know that Michigan has so much talent that they can score at least a few points. The question is, can Penn State score at all on Michigan’s defense? Michigan can load the box to stop Tony Hunt and pressure Anthony Morelli, and that’s going to be the game. Expect at least one defensive score by UM, and great field position for the UM offense all day long. This game isn’t going to be as exciting as most people hope.
Prediction: Michigan covers
Predicted Final Score: Michigan 31, Penn State 13
Final Score: Michigan 17, Penn State 10
Prediction: RIGHT
#2 Florida (6-0) @ #11 Auburn (5-1)
Vegas Says: Florida -2
Wow… This is a big game. My pessimistic side says that Florida can’t keep this up, and that Auburn won’t lose twice in a row at home. But there’s just this sense that this is a special year for Florida. They’ve got a ridiculous defense, and some surprising poise and leadership on offense. Auburn’s offense, on the other hand, has been more than slightly underwhelming. My head tells me that picking Florida is a tad dangerous. Especially against an Auburn team that is well-coached and full of talent. But I think between Florida slowing down Kenny Irons, and their defensive proclivity towards big interceptions, they’ll chalk up another W and get one landmine closer to a national championship appearance.
Prediction: Florida covers
Predicted Final Score: Florida 20, Auburn 13
Final Score: Auburn 27, Florida 17
Prediction: WRONG
Purdue (4-2) @ Northwestern (2-4)
Vegas Says: Purdue -7
Oh, this one worries me. Not that it should, because I think Purdue is more than 7 points better than Northwestern this year. This is an away game, but when it comes to Northwestern, the stadium is rarely bad for a visitor. Northwestern is stuck in the middle of a QB controversy, and their defense is not anywhere near good. On paper, Purdue wins this game. Purdue has a tendency to make things difficult, especially against Northwestern the last few years. But I just think we’ll be too much for them. We racked up 450 yards of offense on Iowa’s defense, and 490 on Notre Dame. We should be over 500 against Northwestern, and I think this time we’ll get the points to go with it. Northwestern should be expected to have a better-than-average day against the Purdue defense, but considering how bad their average is, that doesn’t worry me too much.
I think this game is a big day for Purdue. They need to make a statement after that blowout against Iowa, they need a tune-up before their homestand against Wisconsin and Penn State, and Northwestern on the road is a perfect team to do it. Purdue needs to come out with an attitude, and prove that they can play better football than they did against Iowa. This week, they finally do it.
Prediction: Purdue covers
Predicted Final Score: Purdue 41, Northwestern 24
Final Score: Purdue 31, Northwestern 20
Prediction: RIGHT
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So, that’s 5 favorites, 1 dog. Not exactly balanced picks, but I think these teams are capable of doing it this week.
UPDATE:That puts me at 5-1 against the spread this week, 5-1 straight up. A very nice performance, leaving me 21-16 against the spread this season, and 29-8 straight up. I might not be all that bad at this!
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