October 21, 2006
2006 NCAA Football Predictions — Week 8
Well, last week was very good for my averages. I’m 21-16 against the spread, and 29-8 straight up. If you discount weeks 1 and 2, when games are notoriously hard to predict (and I went 2-7 ATS), I’d be 19-9 against the spread, so I’ve been rather happy with my picks so far. Of course, with all that build-up, I wouldn’t be surprised if I miss them all this week, but I’m going to give it a try anyway.
You will notice something a little different. For in-conference games, now that we’re into the season, I’m going to start reporting conference records. For example, Purdue (5-2, 2-1) has a 5-2 record overall, and a 2-1 record against Big Ten opponents. FYI.
I’ve got seven games below, but I can’t bring myself to predict the Purdue game, so only 6 are predictions. I’ve also decided to switch something up, and pick one matchup as the “Game of the Week” (see the last pick below). Today, it’s Georgia Tech @ Clemson, a matchup that may tell us who deserves the honors as the top team in the ACC.
UPDATE: Finished 5-1 against the spread this week (damn you MSU!), for a 26-17 overall record. Also 5-1 straight up, for a 34-9 record.
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Michigan State (3-4, 0-3) @ Northwestern (2-5, 0-3)
Vegas Says: MSU -7.5
Michigan State started the season flying high, as usual. But at the beginning of the fourth quarter of the Notre Dame game, something happened. And they haven’t won a game since. Northwestern wasn’t expected to be very good this year, after losing their star QB, the linebacker who lead their defense, and after the sudden death of their head coach. Unfortunately, they’ve underachieved those low expectations. Only one team can lose this game, although I’m sure both will try. But I have to think that this is going to be one of those games based on the pure power of the teams. 3 of MSU’s last four losses have been to top ten teams, and while they’ve been blowouts, those teams would blow out just about anybody. Northwestern’s last three losses have also been blowouts, but against much worse competition.
MSU finally gets back on track, with Stanton getting his rhythm back and the MSU defense shutting down Northwestern’s offense in a way they couldn’t against Michigan or OSU.
Prediction: Michigan State covers
Predicted Final Score: MSU 33, Northwestern 13
Final Score: MSU 41, NW 38
Prediction: Wrong
Thoughts: Screw you, MSU. Why didn’t you show up for the first half?
UCLA (4-2) @ #10 Notre Dame (5-1)
Vegas Says: Notre Dame -13
Everyone knows who Notre Dame is, because they got wall-to-wall media coverage all summer. Tom Zbikowski will knock you out, Jeff Samardzija will hit any nasty pitch you throw, Brady Quinn is the heir-apparent for the Heisman, and St. Weis is more beloved by his fans than Ditka. UCLA, on the other hand, has been overshadowed by the west coast’s Notre Dame, the University of Spoiled Children Southern California. The only reason anyone has paid attention to UCLA is to note that their starting QB was injured two weeks ago, and deer-in-the-headlights replacement Pat Cowan is getting his trial by fire, following his first start on the road against Oregon by traveling for his second at Notre Dame.
But there’s something that most people have missed about UCLA. They’ve got a defense! Such things are rare on the west coast, but they’re allowing a mere 252 yards a game, and that’s after factoring in the 400+ they let Oregon rack up. And yet they only lost by 10 and racked up 20 on Oregon, a team with a better offense and defense than Notre Dame. I don’t think UCLA is going to win this game on the road, but I think they’ll do well enough to beat the 13.
Prediction: UCLA beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Notre Dame 28, UCLA 20
Final Score: Notre Dame 20, UCLA 17
Prediction: Right
Thoughts: ND is still suspect. A last-minute TD drive to save the win shouldn’t be necessary at home against UCLA.
Iowa (5-2, 2-2) @ #2 Michigan (7-0, 4-0)
Vegas Says: Michigan -13
The world let out a collective “WTF?!” last weekend, when Iowa went down in a road upset at Indiana. All anyone can think is that Iowa was looking forward to this game, and treated Indiana like a bye week. Well, now they’re not just fighting to play Michigan tough, they’re fighting for respect. Unfortunately, I don’t think Michigan is ready to give them any. Michigan has an easy three weeks after this game to their showdown with OSU, so they’ve got no reason to look past this game. Iowa, when they’re playing well, can run with just about anybody, but I think Michigan is a cut above. Iowa needs to focus on one thing today, and that’s making sure that Drew Tate survives the game a bit better than Morelli and Clark of PSU, their #1 and #2 QB who were both knocked out of the game. Michigan is going to shut down Iowa’s running game, and although Drew Tate is a pretty clutch QB, he doesn’t have the firepower at WR to put up the scores. Michigan is without Mario Manningham, but Iowa’s injury-depleted defense won’t put up as much of a fight as Wisconsin.
If this line were 15, I might take Iowa to beat it. I think this is a 14-point game, maybe a bit more, but certainly not much less. At 13, though, I think it’s a pretty safe pick.
Prediction: Michigan covers
Predicted Final Score: Michigan 34, Iowa 17
Final Score: Michigan 20, Iowa 6
Prediction: Right
#22 Boston College (5-1, 2-1) @ Florida State (4-2, 2-2)
Vegas Says: Florida State -7
BC has defeated a #12 ranked Clemson team, a decent Virginia Tech team, and fell to a last-minute hail mary to NC State. Florida State beat a Miami team that has since shown to be not all that good, with a loss to that same Clemson team and to the same NC State team. Florida State is at home, and they’re not a bad team. But something has been true in all of their games against quality opponents: they have no offense. BC is questionable, with their starting QB potentially out (it’s a game-time decision at this point) with an ankle/foot injury. If he doesn’t play, what does that mean for the team? If he plays, he barely practiced all week, so how effective will he be? BC has played well this year, but nobody knows just how much depth they have.
Either way, I’m going to assume an FSU win, but I think they’re not going to have the offensive firepower to make it a big win. If the BC QB doesn’t play, and his backup is in, my only worry would be FSU scoring defensive touchdowns.
Prediction: Boston College beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Florida State 23, Boston College 20
Final Score: Boston College 24, FSU 19
Prediction: RIGHT
#19 Rutgers (6-0, 1-0) @ Pittsburgh (6-1, 2-0)
Vegas Says: Pittsburgh -6.5
This is a very big game for Rutgers. For Rutgers to make a legitimate play at greatness this year, it’s a must win. They’ve got two tough games coming up with Louisville & WVU, and when you have those two left on your schedule, you can’t let Pittsburgh get by you. Pittsburgh is in the same boat, with their only loss being an out-of-conference game against pre-meltdown Michigan State. They also have Louisville & WVU left on their schedule, and can’t let Rutgers by them. So this is a HUGE game for both teams.
So it comes down to matchups. Rutgers has the better defense. Pitt appears to have more success in the air on the ground, and Rutgers has only given up 141 ypg in the air. Take that stat with rememberance that Rutgers has blown out most of their opponents, so opponents have been going to the air sooner and more than a typical game. That’s stout. Rutgers has a decent offense, but not great. They make most of their yards on the ground, which is a good matchup for Pitt, who gives up 114 ypg on the ground. But I see Rutgers winning this game by controlling the ball on the ground, and being a thorn in the side of the Pitt passing game.
Prediction: Rutgers beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Rutgers 23, Pitt 17
Final Score: Rutgers 20, Pitt 10
Prediction: RIGHT
Wisconsin (6-1, 3-1) @ Purdue (5-2, 2-1)
Vegas Says: Wisconsin -6.5
Fan, of course, is short for fanatic. “A person marked or motivated by an extreme, unreasoning enthusiasm, as for a cause.” Yep, that pretty much sums me up. This game really worries me, because unlike many fans, I can’t completely turn off my brain. My brain tells me Wisconsin covers this spread. They’ve got weapons on offense, an experienced, senior QB, and a superb defense. They’ll have consistency where Purdue, a young team, may falter. And they’ve got an offensive line where the smallest guy is 6′6″, 313 lbs! They just look good this year. My heart, on the other hand, gives me all the reasons why Purdue will beat the spread (and perhaps win), that we’ve got more weapons on offense, our defense is coming off a great game, and that Wisconsin hasn’t beaten anyone of note (although they’ve dispatched those cupcakes with authority). I say Purdue’s coming back to play at home, we’ve got the emotional desire to get revenge for “The Fumble”, and we’re just waiting for the game where it all comes together, and this might be it!
Simply put, I can’t predict this game. Normally I can get my head and my heart on the same page. I can’t do that today. So I’m going to watch the game at noon on ESPN, and just hope that my heart wins out. Believe, baby, believe!
Prediction: None offered this week.
Final Score: Wisconsin 24, Purdue 3
Thoughts: 3? 3?! An offense averaging > 30 pts/game, and all you can come up with is 3?! Way to squander a great defensive game, guys!
GAME OF THE WEEK
#13 Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-0) @ #12 Clemson (6-1, 3-1)
Vegas Says: Clemson -7
The traditional ACC powerhouses are failing this year, and these two teams are making a good run at taking their place. GT lost their first game of the season against #10 Notre Dame, and Clemson lost a nailbiter against #22 Boston College. Both teams have looked impressive at times, with Clemson defeating Florida State and Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech defeating Virginia Tech and Maryland. Both teams have balanced offenses, with Clemson looking more explosive against worse competition, but with Georgia Tech having the big threat of all-world WR Calvin Johnson. Both teams have strong defenses, Georgia Tech with a stifling run defense, and Clemson with a very balanced run/pass defense (but again, against worse competition).
This game comes down to consistency versus big plays. Clemson is putting up 250 rushing yards per game, GT is allowing 71. I don’t think Clemson can rely on the rush. Clemson has been very good statistically on defense, but they haven’t had a guy like Calvin Johnson to defend. Clemson is strong on third down, and is very efficient passing the ball. Georgia Tech isn’t very consistent, but has explosive ability when it counts.
I think the final is going to show one thing. Clemson’s defense is too good to give up enough big plays to turn the tide, and their offense is solid enough to put up the points when it’s necessary. Georgia Tech will put up some yards, but faltering in the red zone will limit their TD production. Clemson will drive enough to play well in the field position battle, and will use that to overcome GT’s defense on short fields after Reggie Ball has a three-and-out here or there.
Prediction: Clemson covers
Predicted Final Score: Clemson 24, Georgia Tech 13
Final Score: Clemson 31, GT 7
Prediction: RIGHT
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