October 28, 2006
2006 NCAA Football Predictions — Week 9
Well, as I said, I’ve been pretty busy, and my internet access isn’t very good right now (DSL on a friend’s computer, who only has Internet Explorer, so I’m being battered by pop-up ads constantly). So this will be a bit quicker than most weeks…
UPDATE: Looks like I went 3-2 ATS, which isn’t bad. I think I’ve learned that I can’t predict anything MSU does, and that I take too much emotion into any Purdue game to accurately predict anything… But 3-2 is 3-2, and I’ll take that any day of the week.
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#11 Notre Dame (6-1) @ Navy (5-2)
Vegas Says: Notre Dame -13.5
Notre Dame has proven all year that they’re very vulnerable to a strong passing attack. Their secondary isn’t all that good, and any team that can put the ball in the air can hurt them. This is even true of Purdue, who may only have scored 21 points on the Irish, yet put up 400 passing yards. But, against Navy, this doesn’t appear to be a problem. Navy runs over 300 yards/game, and passes only for about 50. Notre Dame’s run defense isn’t Michigan’s, by any means, but if they can stack the box against Navy, they should be able to keep them contained. Navy’s defense is decent, but not great, and they’re giving up over 200 ypg in the air, where Brady Quinn likes to beat you. They’ve given up points to everyone but Stanford, and today is unlikely to be any different.
With a two-TD line, and my deep hatred of Notre Dame, it’s tough to pull the trigger on this one. But I think they win this handily.
Prediction: Notre Dame covers
Predicted Final Score: Notre Dame 38, Navy 20
Final Score: Notre Dame 38, Navy 14
Prediction: RIGHT
Michigan State (4-4, 1-3) @ Indiana (4-4, 2-2)
Vegas Says: MSU -7
It’s gut-check time. Michigan State came up with a record comeback last week against Northwestern, so it’s time to figure out whether they played their typical fluky post-meltdown awesome performance, or whether they’ve righted the ship and will start playing with confidence again. And it’s a crucial win for both teams, as it gets them one-win away from bowl eligibility. Indiana has road games against Minnesota and Purdue, and a sure-loss home game at Michigan, so they need this win to have a shot at a bowl. Michigan State’s path is a bit easier, with home games against Purdue and Minnesota, and a road game at Penn State, but if they play today without confidence, every one of those teams can have their number.
So this is a game that can’t be analyzed very well by stats. MSU is consistently inconsistent, led by a quarterback who is nearly unstoppable when he’s playing well, and looks like a freshman otherwise. Indiana is a young team that has talent but little experience, who nobody expected to win 4 games by now, and shocked the world by coming from behind to beat Iowa. I think MSU is going to stumble a bit out of the gates, but take over this game early in the 2nd quarter to win by a good margin.
Prediction: Michigan State covers
Predicted Final Score: MSU 37, Indiana 24
Final Score: Indiana 46, MSU 21
Prediction: WRONG
Miami U (5-2, 2-1) @ Georgia Tech (5-2, 3-1)
Vegas Says: Georgia Tech -5
You know, this is a game Georgia Tech should dominate. Miami has a stiff run defense, but Georgia Tech has Calvin Johnson, who is probably the best receiver in the country. Georgia Tech also has a tough defense, and Miami’s offense hasn’t looked very good when playing anyone with a pulse. But something tells me that Georgia Tech is going to respond to a tough run defense by trying to run the ball, and may (as usual) forget that they’ve got an all-world WR who makes cornerbacks look like girl scouts. I can only hope that doesn’t happen, and they let Johnson show why he’s so highly praised. I also hope GT no players get beaten, shot, or maimed by the thugs of “da U”…
Prediction: Georgia Tech covers
Predicted Final Score: GT 21, Miami 14
Final Score: Georgia Tech 30, Miami 23
Prediction: RIGHT
Penn State (5-3, 3-2) @ Purdue (5-3, 2-2)
Vegas Says: Penn State -3
These two teams are 5-3, and before the season, both would probably have been expected to be 5-3 right now. PSU has lost to three top-10 teams, and Purdue has lost to a top-10 team and two other strong Big Ten teams. But what really is worth looking at is their wins. Neither team has dominated all but the weakest opponents. Each team is constantly leaving doubts as to whether they’re really any good. Apparently Purdue has more doubts, though, as they’re 3-point dogs to Penn State at home.
The game plan for Purdue is simple. Hold the run enough to force Morelli to beat you in the air, hopefully get pressure on him, and make sure that you score when you’re in the red zone. Penn State’s game plan is also simple. You know Purdue’s got a better offense, so you try to control the game on the ground, and hope that your strong defense can limit their point production, particularly in the red zone where Purdue has had problems.
A lot can affect this game, and a quick weather report shows a Wind Advisory for northwest Indiana… Not good for the Purdue air attack. However, it does mean that if Purdue is able to hold Penn State’s ground game, they should have a chance, as Morelli is no better than Painter throwing the ball in gale-force winds. The game for Purdue, then, is going to come down to throwing the ball enough to the WR corps to keep Penn State’s linebackers from selling out on the run, and hoping the defense holds up. Not an easy thing to do, but after the way they performed against Wisconsin last week, I think they can handle it.
Prediction: Purdue beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Purdue 24, PSU 20
Final Score: Penn State 12, Purdue 0
Prediction: WRONG (and ugh! shut out at home?)
GAME OF THE WEEK
#8 Tennessee (6-1, 2-1) @ South Carolina (5-2, 3-2)
Vegas Says: Tennessee -3.5
Why this is the game of the week, I’m not quite sure. I worry this will be about as exciting as last week’s game of the week, where Clemson routed Georgia Tech (a game where GT inexplicably didn’t throw to Johnson). Tennessee is coming off one of their worst offensive performances of the year, but it was following a bye week, and perhaps they just came out flat. South Carolina appears to have trouble scoring against decent defenses this year, and Tennessee just happens to have a great one.
I think the oddsmakers are relying on Steve Spurrier’s reputation for beating Tennessee in this one, but I think that’s a bad decision. Spurrier wears a headset, he’s not throwing passes or blocking. Tennessee controls this one, start to finish.
Prediction: Tennessee covers
Predicted Final Score: Tennessee 31, South Carolina 17
Final Score: Tennessee 31, South Carolina 24
Prediction: RIGHT
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