November 4, 2006
2006 NCAA Football Predictions — Week 10 part 2
Well, after Louisville’s victory, I’m now 30-19 against the spread, and 38-11 straight up. It’s gotten to the point where I’ve got people e-mailing me for picks, which is a bit of an honor… So I’ve got a question this week. Has anyone actually been betting my picks and making money? I might have to become one of those guys from Two For The Money, and start taking a cut of your winnings 
This week, we’ve got some really great-looking games. Some have some rather wacky lines (I’ll get to that later), and quite a few close ones. So this should be a fun week to watch football…
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Wacky Line of the Week
Indiana (5-4, 3-2) @ Minnesota (3-6, 0-5)
Vegas Says: Minnesota -6
I’ve made the point before that when things don’t look right, it’s usually the oddsmakers, not the bettors, who are right. But I don’t get this line. Indiana is a team on the rise, with a lot of playmakers on offense, winning three of their last four, including a huge upset over Iowa. Minnesota is a team who hasn’t beaten any decent teams this year, has lost every one of their Big Ten games, and they look to be in a slide. Indiana needs one more win for a bowl and want it this week, knowing they’ll lose next week against Michigan, and then have to play @ Purdue. This is their best chance for a win (although the way Purdue is playing, Indiana is expecting to reclaim the “Old Oaken Bucket” this year). Minnesota needs three wins in three games to go bowling, and it looks like enough of an uphill battle that they may already have given up. So the emotions don’t give me a 6-point line.
As for the analysis of the game, Indiana has a good back in Marcus Thigpen, an amazing receiver in James Hardy, and freshman QB Kellen Lewis has really started to come on. Minnesota’s defense is nothing to write home about, so I don’t see them stopping IU’s offense. Minnesota isn’t the power they were last year, with their running game struggling a bit, and their passing game not good enough to make up for it. I do see this being a moderately close game, but if I were drawing the line, I’d call IU 3 point favorites on the road, and I think they’ll win it outright by a touchdown.
Prediction: Indiana beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Indiana 38, Minnesota 31
Final Score: Minnesota 63, Indiana 26
Prediction: WRONG
Penn State (6-3, 4-2) @ #17 Wisconsin (8-1, 5-1)
Vegas Says: Wisconsin -7
Wisconsin will win this game, that much I’m pretty sure about. Penn State has been struggling on offense, and they’re going into a game against one of the top defenses in the Big Ten. But both teams are defensive teams, Wisconsin’s RB is a bit dinged up, and it’s not sure if the score is going to be Wisconsin winning 3-0, or 13-3, because the Penn State defense won’t give them much.
But I think it might be a bit of a surprise, when all is said and done. Vegas has an over/under of 38, which most people would find odd. It’s not, and here’s why: the defenses will give the offenses good field position. I would expect to see Wisconsin get the ball at least once deep in Penn State territory, and I would expect to see both teams getting the ball in good field position on punts. Will there be a lot of 85-yard drives? Probably not, but I think we’ll see a few times where a team only has to go 40 yards to get to the end zone.
Prediction: Wisconsin covers
Predicted Final Score: Wisconsin 27, Penn State 13
Final Score: Wisconsin 13, Penn State 3
Prediction: RIGHT
Tough Call of the Week
Missouri (7-2, 3-2) @ Nebraska (6-3, 3-2)
Vegas Says: Nebraska -5
Here’s one of those games where a line looks about right. Both teams are coming off a loss, but they’ve both lost this year only to the decent teams on their schedule. This is a big game for these two, as the winner is basically assured a trip to the Big 12 conference championship game. So there’s a lot of emotion at play. Both teams look pretty well identical, in that in big games, they’ve taken some opponents to the wire (Nebraska against Texas, Mizzou against Texas A&M), and they’ve both gotten blown out in a big game (Nebraska against USC, Mizzou against Oklahoma). In the emotion factor, I can say that I’m rooting for Mizzou, as my older sister went there, and she took me out drinking for the first time (at the age of 15, of course!). Also, the one time I drove through Lincoln, Nebraska, it looked like the dark side of the moon.
But looking at the way these teams break down, Nebraska is a bit more of a scoring threat, but gives up a few more points. Mizzou appears to lean a bit more on the pass, yet they still gain 155 ypg on the ground. So both teams look balanced. I think this is going to be a very close game either way, and I don’t see it reaching the 52 point o/u. I’m going to give a slight edge to Missouri because they seem to have a better defense, but against Nebraska, I think the home field advantage just barely wins out…
Prediction: Missouri beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Nebraska 23, Missouri 20
Final Score: Nebraska 34, Missouri 20
Prediction: WRONG
Purdue (5-4, 2-3) @ Michigan State (4-5, 1-4)
Vegas Says: Michigan State -2
I no longer offer real predictions of either of these teams. Michigan State is so incredibly inconsistent that I can’t predict anything they’ll do. And I’ve got emotional ties to Purdue, which always color my analysis. So this game won’t end up in my record books, but I wanted to bring it up anyway…
Michigan State fired their coach Wednesday, but he’ll still be on the sidelines. You expect in a situation like this that a team will come out with emotion to win one for the outgoing coach. Which means that since you expect it, MSU will come out flat. But since MSU is expected to do the unexpected, wouldn’t it be just like MSU to do the expected? I don’t know, and my brain is starting to hurt… This game, as the Boilermaker Football Blog points out:
This has the potential to be a comedy off errors, the funniest of which is that the winner will be one very winnable game away from getting to a bowl themselves. I am almost glad this game will be on ESPNU, because it could be the first 0-0 seven OT game in NCAA history, or it could be about 75-72 in seven overtimes. A blowout either wouldn’t be shocking either.
When it comes down to it, both teams are talented. Both teams have high-powered offenses when their receivers are catching the ball and their coaches are calling good games. Both teams have weak defenses. In a real analysis of the game, MSU has an edge with a senior QB, experienced talent elsewhere, and home field advantage. But I think Purdue will get back on track offensively, and their very deep receiving corps will overpower MSU’s secondary, with the coaches opening up the deep ball. Assuming no mental meltdown by either team, this should be a high-scoring affair, where the team with the ball last wins. No “official” prediction this week, but I’m a Purdue homer, so I’ll say Purdue 45, MSU 41.
Prediction: No Official Prediction
Final Score: Purdue 17, MSU 15
Arizona State (5-3, 2-3) @ Oregon State (5-3, 3-2)
Vegas Says: Oregon State -2.5
Ahh, a Pac-10 battle. Oregon State is coming off their shocking upset against USC, and is riding a 3-game winning streak. Arizona State had a rough stretch, with a 3-week losing streak against ranked Cal, Oregon, and a close loss to USC, but have beaten all the unranked teams on their schedule. Neither team has really shown themselves to beat any good competition, with the only win over a team with a winning record that of ASU over Nevada.
Looking at the stats, neither team has a Pac-10 worthy offense, and surprisingly their defenses don’t look too bad. The matchup looks even stranger, because ASU, normally a pass-happy team, is gaining most of their yards on the ground, against OSU’s strong rush defense (96 ypg). OSU is a passing team, and ASU’s defensive strength is against the pass. So this could be a very interesting game.
But unless ASU can establish the run, it won’t be interesting at all. And I think Oregon State’s defense will stop the run. Oregon State wins by a decent margin at home.
Prediction: Oregon State covers
Predicted Final Score: Oregon State 31, Arizona State 20
Final Score: Oregon State 44, Arizona State 10
Prediction: RIGHT
#16 Boston College (7-1, 3-1) @ #22 Wake Forest (7-1, 3-1)
Vegas Says: Boston College -3.5
This is the game, like Mizzou @ Nebraska, which determines which of these teams will go to the ACC Championship game. So there is a lot riding on it. Wake Forest was everyone’s darling before Clemson came through and rolled right over them. Boston College is always the media’s darling due to one Doug Flutie, with their one defeat in a very Flutie-esque play against NC State. Both teams are good. Neither is great, but in an ACC down year, this game gets them into the conference championship, where they may be the favored team.
But the stats don’t make this one look good for the Wake Forest Demon Deacons. They’re not an offensive powerhouse, gaining their yards on the ground. Boston College is only giving up 83 ypg on the ground. Wake Forest is susceptible to a passing offense. Boston College is gaining 226 ypg in the air. This is one of those games where the teams are both good teams, but the matchup is horribly uneven. The catholics rout the Demon Deacons.
Prediction: Boston College covers
Predicted Final Score: Boston College 31, Wake Forest 17
Final Score: Wake Forest 21, Boston College 14
Prediction: WRONG
#18 Oklahoma (6-2, 3-1) @ #21 Texas A&M (8-1, 4-1)
Vegas Says: Oklahoma -3
This is another tough one. Everyone expected Oklahoma to fold after Adrian Peterson was injured, but they appear to be like Wisconsin, in that you plug in another running back, and he rushes for 267 yards over the last two games. They still don’t have a passing offense, but their running game isn’t suffering as expected. In fact, they’re still steamrolling opponents, including Missouri, without Peterson. Texas A&M has a high-powered offense, a decent defense, and is sitting at 8-1, but they haven’t dominated anyone in conference play. Yet, 8-1 is a good record, and it doesn’t always matter how you win, if you have players who believe they can beat any team, they can come up with “just enough” whenever they need to.
Statwise, Oklahoma has a pretty strong defense, but Texas A&M’s offense wasn’t stopped by Missouri or Texas Tech’s strong defenses. I’m going to go out on a limb on this one, and say that A&M comes up with “just enough” once again. Oklahoma will try to control the pace with the ground game, but with A&M’s high-powered offense, they’ll be in it at the end with a chance to win, and I say they come through.
Prediction: Texas A&M beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Texas A&M 27, Oklahoma 24
Final Score: Oklahoma 17, Texas A&M 16
Prediction: RIGHT
GAME OF THE DAY
#13 LSU (6-2, 2-2) @ #8 Tennessee (7-1, 3-1)
Vegas Says: LSU -4.5
This is an odd one… LSU is ranked lower than Tennessee, has one more loss, and yet they’re 4.5 point favorites, on the road, against a Tennessee team that is looking really good? I guess I can see why, they’re averaging 35 points per game, and only giving up 8.3. But that’s a bit deceptive.
LSU has played 6 home games against cupcake opponents, averaging over 45 ppg. In their two road games against powerful opponents, they’ve averaged 6.5 points. This is a road game against a powerful opponent. Tennessee has played three games against top 10 teams, and is averaging over 30 ppg. Against Florida, the team who has a defense in LSU’s class, they put up 20 points in a close loss. Tennessee’s starting QB is coming off injury, which might be a problem, but reports on Thursday had him as probable to play, so he might be in this game.
Even without Erik Ainge, I think Tennessee’s defense is going to hold LSU to a low enough score that I can’t see them winning by 4.5. Auburn beat them in a 7-3 game, and Florida in a 23-10 game. Tennessee isn’t going to put up their typical 30+ points, but they’re not going to need to. LSU has a great defense, and a high-powered offense, but they don’t seem to travel well. Tennessee takes this, but I’ll give LSU the benefit of the doubt that equal the sum of their previous points on the road.
Prediction: Tennessee beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Tennessee 20, LSU 13
Final Score: LSU 28, Tennessee 24
Prediction: RIGHT
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So this is a bit different than some weeks. 7 games, I’m picking 4 underdogs and three outright upsets. If you counted the Purdue/MSU game (which I don’t), that’d be a 5th underdog and another upset. I’m even thinking Michigan won’t cover against Ball State, since I expect to see second-stringers in the game for the Wolverines as early as the second quarter. But I guess with picks like these, I might just find myself looking at a 7-0 record this week, or an 0-7 record. Only time will tell. 2 hours now until kickoff, so we’ll see!
UPDATE: Well, at the end of the day I squeaked into a 4-3 record against the spread, and a mere 3-4 straight up. I picked a bunch of upsets, but didn’t pick the one (Wake Forest) that actually occurred. But any time you can beat 55% against the spread (and I went 57% today), consider it a success. And Purdue won a tough game against Michigan State, so frankly my picks don’t matter that much… Purdue won!
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