November 9, 2006
2006 NCAA Football Predictions — Week 11 part 1
Again, we’ve got a big Thursday night matchup. Again, it involves two undefeated Big East teams. And again, there’s a lot at stake. If Louisville wins this game, they’ve got easier sailing the rest of the way to the MNC game (although it is three teams with winning records). Rutgers is not getting any love from the rankings, but if they get by Louisville, the rest of their schedule, and West Virginia to close out the year, they could prove themselves worthy of a shot at the MNC game as well. This game is not getting the hype last week got, which is a shame, since it’s more due to the polls dissing Rutgers than anything else.
GAME OF THE WEEK
#3 Louisville (8-0, 3-0) @ #15 Rutgers (8-0, 3-0)
Vegas says: Louisville -7
Rutgers hasn’t been getting a lot of credit this year, but only one game so far has been close. They even blew the doors off Navy, and if they can contain the Navy rushing attack, they may have a shot at slowing down West Virginia. But that’s only relevant if they can get by Louisville, and Rutgers are 7 point dogs at home.
Looking at the game, Rutgers has one of the top scoring defenses in the country. They’re allowing a mere 9.1 ppg, 227 ypg, including a miserly 135 ypg in the air. They’re top ten in those three categories, and top 25 in rushing ypg allowed. Of course, that’s up against a team, Louisville, whose offense is scoring 39.4 ppg, gaining nearly 500 ypg and 300 in the air. That’s top ten in all three categories, with a top 25 rushing attack thrown in. Louisville has a strong defense, but they gave up quite a bit of yards and points to West Virginia last week. Rutgers, of course, doesn’t have anywhere near the offense WVU has, so Louisville’s strong defense should be able to hold them to a lot less production than WVU could gain.
This isn’t quite the same matchup as Louisville/WVU. But in that matchup, Louisville needed both defensive and special teams touchdowns to put it away. WVU was not good at securing the football, and made enough mistakes to get themselves out of their gameplan. And that was Louisville at home, they’re on the road for this one. Rutgers hasn’t quite played anyone to give them the tests Louisville has faced so far, the only test they’ve had is a close 22-20 game at South Florida. That was a Friday night game, so hopefully it prepared them for the rigors of dealing with a Thursday night game.
In the end, I think to be 7 point dogs at home is a big spread. Further, Louisville is coming off their biggest test of the year, so they might be ripe for a letdown. Last, Rutgers has a defense even more suited to containing Louisville than any they’ve probably faced this season, including Miami. I’m really expecting Rutgers to come up big in this one. I don’t know they’ll be able to win this game, but I don’t give this one to Louisville by more than one score. To be sure, a Rutgers upset wouldn’t really surprise me, because their defense has picked off a few passes this year, and a few turnovers for either team could really blow this one apart.
Prediction: Rutgers beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Louisville 30, Rutgers 27
Final Score: Rutgers 28, Louisville 25
Prediction: RIGHT
UPDATE: So that gets me to 35-22 against the spread, 41-16 straight up. Rutgers has blown the doors off Louisville’s MNC hopes, and now they need to win out to have any chance of living out their own MNC fantasy. Regardless of BCS hopes, Rutgers played a great game. Down 25-7 at the half, they battled back to win the game 28-25. Excellent stuff…
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There are only two comments I can make:
Holy Freakin’ Crap
and
Yea !