November 11, 2006
2006 NCAA Football Predictions — Week 11 part 2
The drain of a long season has got to be wearing on a lot of players by now, especially since the NCAA added a 12th game to the schedule. It’s wearing on me, as well, as I’m finding these picks harder to generate each week. This week is an especially tough week, as I have vowed not to pick Michigan State games (too inconsistent), I can’t objectively pick Purdue (as a fan), and between two games I would normally pick this week (Wisconsin/Iowa and Tennessee/Arkansas), three of the 4 starting QB’s probably won’t be playing.
But that’s enough whining for today. Purdue doesn’t have a bye week on their schedule this year, so I’m not going to take one either!
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Minnesota (4-6, 1-5) @ Michigan State (4-6, 1-5)
Vegas Says: Minnesota -1.5
As I’ve said, I won’t put up an “official” pick for this game. How can I, when MSU changes their team’s demeanor more quickly and with more variety than Chicago weather. That’s not even taking into account the inconsistency of Minnesota, who looked like a bad run-dominated team most of the year, only to air it out against Indiana to win 63-26.
So after watching what happened to MSU last week against Purdue, I learned my lesson. MSU will always do what is most demoralizing. They need to win both of their next two games to go to a bowl. The most demoralizing thing possible would be to play great football against Minnesota, beat them badly enough that all of a sudden MSU fans might believe MSU can upset Penn State next weekend, only to get crushed in Happy Valley. So that’s my “unofficial” pick. MSU wins in order to make their loss next weekend that much more devastating.
Prediction: No official prediction
Final Score: Minnesota 31, MSU 18
Purdue (6-4, 3-3) @ Illinois (2-8, 1-5)
Vegas Says: Illinois -3
Illinois, a 2-8 football team, favored by 3 points? I guess the folks who say that Illinois is the best 8-loss team in the country might have a point! Of course, they gave both Penn State and Wisconsin a run, and then managed to only get beat by 7 against Ohio State, the number one team in the country. Of course, Ohio State mailed it in on this one, and I firmly believe that they could have turned it on and driven the score up any time they wanted to.
That being said, Illinois does have a defense. Given Purdue’s troubles facing the defenses of Wisconsin and Penn State, that could bode ill for the Boilers. Both of those games for Purdue were home games, yet Wisconsin and Penn State did have a defensive “12th man” working for them: 20+ mph gusty winds. Illinois doesn’t have a defense that rivals those two, but they’ll have some wind, and possibly even a nice rain/snow mix added in. God, I hate the midwest in November…
Still I think Illinois has been playing more on emotion than talent. Their offensive line is a sieve, so Purdue DE Anthony Spencer should tee off on Illini QB Juice Williams early and often. Purdue’s defense held MSU to about 305 total yards, and I don’t see any reason for Illinois to do better. Purdue’s offense won’t have a field day, but they should be able to do more than they did against Wisconsin and Penn State, despite the weather. Purdue wins this game to become bowl eligible, although it’s not going to be a blowout.
Prediction: No official prediction
Final Score: Purdue 42, Illinois 31
#16 Wisconsin (9-1, 6-1) @ Iowa (6-4, 2-4)
Vegas Says: Wisconsin -2
Wow, what a year Iowa has had. Their one strong performance was beating up an a poorly-playing Purdue team, and the rest of the season has been a nightmare. They’ve lost to Michigan, OSU, Indiana, and most recently lowly Northwestern. Not good at all. They’re beaten up on defense, their offense is struggling with the graduation of their top receivers last year, and it seems like anything that can go wrong will.
Under normal circumstances, I’d pick Wisconsin by 15. With Wisconsin QB John Stocco questionable to play (supposedly a game-time decision), and RB PJ Hill coming off an injury a few weeks ago, the Wisconsin offense may have some trouble. The backup QB isn’t likely to be trusted to throw the ball, so that means Hill and the other RB’s are going to have to step up big.
In the end, though, I think a team that lost 21-7 against Northwestern, at home, has problems. Wisconsin may struggle a bit on offense, but they have a defense that will keep Iowa from doing anything meaningful on offense. This isn’t going to be a high-scoring game on either side, but I think Wisconsin will be in control of this one.
Prediction: Wisconsin covers
Predicted Final Score: Wisconsin 17, Iowa 10
Final Score: Wisconsin 24, Iowa 21
Prediction: RIGHT
Miami (5-4, 2-3) @ #23 Maryland (7-2, 4-1)
Vegas Says: Maryland -3.5
Miami seemed to be having about the worst year possible. And then it got worse. Defensive lineman Bryan Pata was shot and killed on Tuesday night, which puts the rest of Miami’s troubles into perspective, and gave them a real tragedy to deal with in the midst of all their now-inconsequential other troubles. This is one of those situations that can go either way for a football team. They can rise up, or fold. It’s tough to tell.
Maryland has been doing the exact opposite. They haven’t really had any impressive wins to date, but they’ve won 7 games. This appears to be one of those teams that has the will to win, which is often just as important as the talent.
But I think it comes to an end this week. Maryland, for a 7-2 team, doesn’t have a very impressive offense, and an even less-impressive defense. Miami, for a team that isn’t topping the scoring charts, is playing good defense, and I think the loss of Pata is going to fire up this defense and get them playing with emotion and aggressiveness. Miami will have a little more focus this week, and come up with the big upset on the road. Either that, or they’ll mentally fall apart by the 2nd quarter and get blown out.
Prediction: Miami beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Miami 21, Maryland 17
Final Score: Maryland 14, Miami 13
Prediction: RIGHT
#2 Michigan (10-0, 6-0) @ Indiana (5-5, 3-3)
Vegas Says: Michigan -19
I normally stay away from lines like this. I don’t like 19-point lines, because it’s all too often that teams get complacent when they have big leads, and it’s easy for a team, up by 21, to give up that late TD and make it 14. Particularly, I think Michigan is known for sitting on a small lead, because they know very well that their defense can stand up to anyone in the country. In fact, it almost got them in a lot of trouble last week.
But this week is different. This is a tune-up week, to make sure everything’s in rhythm for the Ohio State game. Michigan is going to be opening it up a little more and making sure Henne, Hart, and Manningham are all on the same page. Indiana is developing a potent offense, but Michigan has the defense to cover James Hardy, shut down Marcus Thigpen, and if Hoosier QB Kellen Lewis makes it through the game with his head still on his shoulders, he should thank his lucky stars.
Michigan blows this one open, because they need the practice for next weekend.
Prediction: Michigan covers
Predicted Final Score: Michigan 38, Indiana 10
Final Score: Michigan 34, Indiana 3
Prediction: RIGHT
Nebraska (7-3, 4-2) @ #24 Texas A&M (8-2, 4-2)
Vegas Says: PICK
Statistically, this is a tough one. These are two good football teams, with losses to quality programs. Statistically, they’re looking like roughly similar offensive and defensive production. Both teams have had a big win or two, a loss to a teams they were “supposed” to lose to, and a loss to a slightly worse team. Nebraska also has an OOC loss to USC, but you can imagine that if A&M had scheduled any teams of that caliber OOC, they would have that loss as well.
When it really comes down to it, only one thing sticks out at me. Nebraska has done a good job of making sure that opponents’ yards don’t turn into points. Nebraska has given up some yards through the air, but hasn’t given up a huge number of points. This is a good matchup for them, as well, because the Aggies are primarily a running team, and may not be able to exploit that Cornhusker defensive weakness. Nebraska looks just slightly tougher than A&M, so I’m going to give them the nod.
Prediction: Nebraska wins
Predicted Final Score: Nebraska 24, Texas A&M 20
Final Score: Nebraska 28, Texas A&M 27
Prediction: RIGHT
Oregon State (6-3, 4-2) @ UCLA (4-5, 2-4)
Vegas Says: Oregon State -2
Oregon State, you have to think, isn’t getting a lot of respect. They got blown out early against Boise State and Cal, and I think they’ve been forgotten ever since. Until, of course, they took down USC. That’s a big win, no matter who you are. UCLA got off to a good start, but had a QB injury starting a 4-game slide (albeit 3 of the 4 losses were to ranked teams). There’s definite talent on this team, and there’s a strong defense who can make life a nightmare for opposing QB’s.
UCLA has a pass rush, and that appears to be the key to beating Oregon State. I think if they can keep the OSU QB on the run, UCLA can win this game.
Prediction: UCLA beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: UCLA 31, Oregon State 24
Final Score: UCLA 25, Oregon State 7
Prediction: RIGHT
Texas Tech (6-4, 3-3) @ #17 Oklahoma (7-2, 4-1)
Vegas Says: Oklahoma -9
Oklahoma is a good team, and they’re one horrible officiating call from being an 8-1 team instead of 7-2. They’ve incredibly managed to lose Adrian Peterson for the year and yet not miss a beat on offense. With the exception of the Texas game, where they were simply outclassed, and the horrible officiating against Oregon, they’ve just sat back and taken care of business.
Texas Tech is always a bit of a misfit, and this year they’ve had their good and their bad games. A team that’s typically known for scoring has done so in their wins, but they’ve had two inexplicable single-digit scoring outings this year. One of those games, they turned the ball over 5 times. But the other, they just didn’t seem to put together any sort of offensive rhythm.
In this game, I don’t think they’ll have the same problem. Against Texas’ defense, the Red Raiders managed to put up 31 points, and I think they can keep their offense humming against Oklahoma. It won’t be a high scoring game, because I expect Oklahoma to try to control the tempo by running the ball, but it won’t be a defensive battle. Oklahoma wins, but I’m not giving them 9 points… Even at home.
Prediction: Texas Tech beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Oklahoma 31, Texas Tech 27
Final Score: Oklahoma 34, Texas Tech 24
Prediction: WRONG
#13 Tennessee (7-2, 3-2) @ #11 Arkansas (8-1, 5-0)
Vegas Says: Arkansas -6
Arkansas has a big win on their slate, beating Auburn. But outside of that, nothing. They’ve squeaked by Vanderbilt, Alabama, and South Carolina. They got blown out in their opener against USC. They haven’t yet proven who they are. Tennessee has a big win against Cal to start the season, and two respectable losses to Florida and LSU, two very powerful teams. They also have a big comeback win on the road at Georgia.
But there’s a problem for both teams. Both starting QB’s are out. Tennessee might play Erik Ainge at somepoint, but if he plays, he’s probably not 100%. That means this game might be a toss-up. So when you look at the backups, how do they stack up? Arkansas backup Casey Dick played very well last week, and Tennessee backup Jonathan Crompton didn’t.
So why am I picking Tennessee? I’m not quite sure. Part of it is on my buddy JimmyJ’s advice. Part of me just says that Arkansas is a bit of a fraud, and is not as good as their lofty ranking based on the beating they took from USC, and their so-so wins over everyone the mid-level SEC teams. They’ve got the big win at Auburn, but I don’t know if I trust them yet. Crompton had a bad first outing against LSU, but the Arkansas defense isn’t as tough, and I think Tennessee just might take this game…
Prediction: Tennessee beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Tennessee 28, Arkansas 23
Final Score: Arkansas 31, Tennessee 14
Prediction: WRONG
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Well, the day started well, at 5-0. Then it dropped to 5-2. I blame JimmyJ. I’d probably have picked Tennessee to beat the spread without him, but I still blame him. Why do I listen to someone who took 7 years to graduate college?
Either way, though, 5-2 is a good week, putting me at 40-24 against the spread on the season. That’s a 62.5% record, which is more than enough to beat the juice. I’ll take it!
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What’s this ? Not bothering to pick in the OSU-Northwestern game ?
Nope… And if OSU was playing my high school team (which is almost competitive with Northwestern this year), I wouldn’t pick that game either…
Normally I wouldn’t have even picked the Michigan game. My guess is that the OSU game will be roughly similar. The team will be playing all-out as a tune-up for next weekend. They’re 23-point favorites, and although Tressel has often been known as a conservative coach with a lead, I think they keep their foot on the throttle all game. They learned last week what happens when you don’t.
Nice to see some Big 12 action in this week’s pics, although my loveable ‘Clones just can’t seem to do much of anything…in the words of a football fanatic friend of mine, “the old days of ISU football are back: the only joy on Saturdays comes from drinking, and rooting for whoever the Hawks are playing.”
But on the plus side, my ‘Cats came up big against Texas. Granted, I think they committed every procedural penalty in the book, and some I’d never seen before (defensive delay of game??) but that third quarter was one of the more exciting quarters of football that I’ve seen in awhile.
I’d like to apologize to Brad for giving him such terrible advice. I did indeed promise him that Tennessee would beat Arkansas, and because I had already predicted the LSU upset of Tennessee and Rutgers over Louisville (among some other earlier games), he believed me. I had a heckuva run but all streaks must eventually come to an end.
In my defense, I had never seen Arkansas run “The Formation” with McFadden in the shotgun in a strange mesh of the spread option and single wing. It was virtually unstoppable. They are my new favorite 1-loss team (40 point whupping by USC be darned). However, the one team that might have a clue as to how to stop “The Formation” is Florida. I say this because each time Urban Meyer brings in Tim Tebow at QB, they are basically in the same situation with Tebow doubling as both a QB and a huge, hard running, truck of a running back. And Heavens to Betsy, we get to see that matchup in the SEC Championship game (barring something really strange happening).
(Note: this is not to be taken as a guarantee of a Razorback win over LSU)