November 12, 2006
Upset Day!
Since Thursday night, we’ve seen 4 top-ten teams get knocked down. Three of the four were knocked out by unranked teams (Louisville wasn’t as big of a shock as these three). Auburn got destroyed at home by Georgia. Cal lost a close one on the road against Arizona. Texas, one of the teams on the inside track for the Nat’l Championship game, lost a shootout with Kansas State, giving them a few turnovers to help them out.
So this has thrown the rankings for a loop. Florida has solidified themselves into 3rd place, with a decent, but so far unimpressive Southern Cal in 4th. Obviously, the loser of the Michigan/OSU game will drop a few slots, so #3 will become #2 after this weekend.
Florida, if they win out, should still be the favorite. They have one easy game left this weekend, followed by a trap game, which they should win, against Florida State. Then, though, they get the SEC Championship Game (against Arkansas). If they win this game, they’ll glide into the MNC game. Of course, that means they have to get by Arkansas, who has much the same deal. They’ve got a tougher game against LSU than Florida against FSU, but if the make it through and beat Florida, they can take that spot. But remember, it’s possible that Arkansas loses to LSU, but then beats Florida, taking both of them out of contention.
That leaves USC and Notre Dame. Notre Dame has easy sailing until they finish the season against USC. Frankly, I think both teams are overrated, but if either finishes the season with one loss, they might get into the big one. USC has a tough slate, still having to face Cal, Notre Dame, and UCLA. If they win out, they may still sit behind a 1-loss Florida, but might be ahead of a 1-loss Arkansas. Notre Dame, if they win out, likewise probably sits behind a 1-loss Florida, and probably (IMHO) behind a 1-loss Arkansas. Let’s hope they don’t win out, though, because the last thing I want is to see Notre Dame slide into the Nat’l Championship game, get a few lucky bounces, and actually win the damn thing.
And then there’s Rutgers. If they win out, they’ll be one of only two undefeated teams from BCS conferences (them, and the winner of UM/OSU). I think they should get the chance to play for the national championship, but the polls might not give them a shot.
So that’s where we sit. The only teams left on the schedule that control their destiny are Michigan and Ohio State. The winner of that game will end up in the MNC. Behind them, about 5 teams have a shot (two of which will be eliminated playing against the other two), including an undefeated Rutgers that has to rely on the voters to give them enough respect to get there.
Now, all that’s left is to convince my wife why I need to watch games that “I don’t care about” like Rutgers/WVU and Arkansas/LSU. That might be a harder job than these teams have over the next few weeks!
Below The Beltway linked with College Football Rankings — Week 11
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