As you can see, I’ve been busy today. So I’m going to make a pick in tonights’ Boston College/Miami game, and will get to the other games of the weekend later…
#18 Boston College (9-2, 5-2) @ Miami-FL (5-6, 2-5) Vegas Says: Boston College -3.5
This is an odd one. You have Boston College, a team going through an absolutely great season, with only close losses to NC State and Wake Forest. Then, you’ve got Miami who has been an emotional basketcase, and has lost several blowout games. Somehow, though, the line started around 4.5 and has been trending downwards late to 3.5… It’s almost like someone out there really believes Miami will put it together in this one.
Statistically, BC is scoring a good 10 points more per game, and allowing 1 less. So I don’t see a reason to think they won’t be capable of covering, even factoring in Miami’s home field advantage. BC has only scored less than 20 in their two losses, and I don’t expect them to do it tonight. Miami has had trouble scoring more than 15 in their six losses, and I doubt they’ll do it today against BC’s defense.
I don’t know why these lines are trending downwards, but I think BC covers easily.
Prediction: Boston College covers Predicted Final Score: Boston College 27, Miami 13 Final Score: Miami 17, Boston College 14 Prediction: WRONG
UPDATE: Wow, the Miami defense played lights-out today. Boston College never got it going on offense. Truthfully, neither did Miami. Three interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown, really hurt them today. They really didn’t sustain long drives, but they had a couple of big deep shots that got them just enough to get the lead, and then the defense took over.
Happy Thanksgiving! I can’t believe I am sending you holiday greetings via the blogoshpere. Have fun shopping. That’s some effen pandemonium that I don’t want to deal with.
As you can probably tell, I’ve been doing major work on the blog theme today, and I think I’m getting near to being done. So far I think it looks a lot better than the old one, and I should have done this a long time ago. Of course, the reason I’ve had all this time is that the wife and I stayed home this year, and didn’t go to either Chicago or California for the holiday.
All is well, though, because my wife cooked, and she’s a far better cook than anyone in my family or anyone else in hers. So I had the best Thanksgiving meal I think I’ve ever had! I hope all of you are doing as well on this fine November day
Guess I should’ve put my comment in here instead, huh? Oh well – guess I shouldn’t have smoked that world’s biggest joint from a few posts ago, either… *cough* …
People for a long time have complained a bit about my color scheme, that there may not be enough contrast between certain colors. Being colorblind, I never had a problem, but I was starting to get sick of the weird-looking graphic on the side, and decided to make some changes.
But, as I mentioned, I have no eye for style, and so any assistance, suggestions on colors, etc, would be highly appreciated. I’m a boring guy, so I was going to do everything in shades of gray, but that didn’t look good… So I’m looking for some suggestions. Thanks!
Also, if anyone has any idea why my “Categories” and “Archives” text is so tiny, let me know. I’m using Wordpress php functions to pull that up, so that might be part of it. But I’m not sure how to make it better.
The grey backgrounds arent bad, but one should never use any blue text lighter than navy, unless it’s either greenish, or extremely light blue against a very dark background (like black), because the link convention uses blue as an indicator color.
Also, blue on grey causes eyestrain for a large segment of the population; as does blue on white.
The red is a bit too bright a contrast with the white; I’d recommend taking white to a slightly off white, or very light grey, and changing the red to a very dark red.
This prevents color clash and bleed on high contrast or very bright screens, and on LCDs.
Other than that, I’m digging the general concept. I am a bit surprised you didnt go for black and gold…
I’m horrible with colors… If you have any suggested HTML color codes to try, I’d appreciate it. I may also look into the Old Gold & Black idea, I hadn’t thought of that!
VRB,
Yes, and she likes it… I may enlist her help a bit to clean it up even more.
Comment by Brad Warbiany — November 23, 2006 @ 11:06 pm
I would start trying the background with 660000 and go up to AA0000 on the background, and EEEEEE on the inset.
One thing on the grey; against some backdrops and on some screen types, very light grey can develop a blusih cast.
For example, I have five monitors, and it shows up as slightly bluish on two of them.
The bluish isn’t bad, and against a darker red would be even less noticable, you you may want to try EEEEDD to tone down the blue if it is noticable on your screens.
Ah, the wonders of the cache…I get the email after being cut off from the internets for a couple of days so I head on over here to take a look and…it looks exactly the same. Huh.
*Refresh*
THERE we go.
Anyway, I think it looks fine, but I didn’t really have a problem with the old one, so that should tell you my ability with matching colors. You can take the engineer out of engineering, but you can’t take the engineering out of the engineer. :-p
A plan to roll and smoke the world’s largest joint was cancelled at short notice in Amsterdam when the organizers realized they could be breaking the law.
Dude #1: “Dude, you know, I just thought of something… This might be illegal!”
Dude #2: “Whoa, this is some really good sh— Wait… What?”
Dude #1: “No, dude, I think this much weed might be, like, illegal…”
Dude #2: “Yeah, dude, you might be right… That sucks, man…”
<10 second silence>
Dude #1: “Wait… What were we talking about again?”
The group had wanted to roll a five-foot-long pure-weed joint, stuffed with more than a pound of marijuana and containing no tobacco, and smoke it in a bar.
It had initially thought the attempt would be legal if 100 people each brought along the five grams of the drug tolerated by Dutch authorities for personal use.
“Unfortunately it looks like this will not be possible,” Verheij said. The attempt had been planned for Wednesday.
A police spokesman said: “We would definitely have investigated this. If you make a single joint with half a kilo of cannabis in it, it would cross the line.”
Uhh, I thought pot-smokers had no ambition? These guys were aiming for a world record… That stuff must be laced with Ritalin in Amsterdam!
The idea is that if you’ve got large quantities, it signifies an intent to distribute. Why Amsterdam feels that smoking pot is okay but selling it isn’t, I’ll never know.
Comment by Brad Warbiany — November 23, 2006 @ 9:15 am
lol wow i would like to be notifided if you guys ever plan on doing this again cus i would bring 5 grams and help the cuse forsure lol good job guys!
Well, in my previous bowl wrap-up, I had been working off bad information. The Alamo and Champs Sports bowls are alternating between picking the #4 and #5 teams in the Big Ten this year, and I thought this year was the Alamo picking #4 (thus suggesting Purdue would be going there). I was wrong, the Champs Sports Bowl gets the first pick of the two this year, and they’ve selected Purdue:
The Big Ten announced on Tuesday that Purdue will be making the conference’s first appearance in the Champs Sports Bowl on Dec. 29. Its opponent has yet to be determined.
The Boilers (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten) still have one game left on their schedule but regardless of the outcome of their game against Hawaii on Saturday, will finish in a tie for fourth in the conference.
Purdue failed to reach a bowl game last season after finishing 5-6, but with a win over Illinois on Nov. 11, the Boilers earned bowl eligibility this season.
Coach Joe Tiller has led the Boilers to nine bowl games in his 10 years at the helm of the Purdue program. Purdue is 7-6 all-time in its bowl game history.
“We appreciate the opportunity to go to the Champs Sports Bowl and play an outstanding team from the ACC,” Tiller said in a statement. “I am pleased for our players that they get this reward.”
Early thoughts are that we might face Maryland or Wake Forest, although with possible opponents of Boston College or Virginia Tech. A lot is up in the air at the moment, so it’s tough to tell. Either way, given the way Purdue has been playing, any bowl team will be a tough game. Maybe we’ll learn a bit more about this team on Saturday when they play at Hawaii, but this team could finish 10-4 or 8-6. I think Vegas will be expecting 8-6, so we might just have something to prove.
We’ve now got three new contributors. I said yesterday that I’m looking to make sure the second year is even better than the first. Well, it’s getting off to a great start. Head on over…
Seven years of college Five gallons of beer down the drain. For those of you who don’t know about beermaking, one thing, above all others, is always lurking as a threat: infection. The air around us is filled with nasty organisms that would just LOVE to feast on some tasty beer (as opposed to me, a kind, gentle organism that would love to feast on tasty beer). Those nasties beat me to it.
Who were the perpetrators? Brett? Pedio? Or as they’re known on the street, the “funk” (with apologies to George Clinton, who I’d gladly offer a tasty beer)…
Normally, if caught early, bottled, and drank quickly, the funk won’t do too much damage. For this, though it was too late. It was a drainpour. I smelled the stuff, and it was like sour milk (the lactic acid, of course, coming from the “funk” fermentation byproducts). My neighbor’s batch managed to catch the same thing, but was still salvagable. It has a hint of sour, but hopefully the fact that it’s strong and very-highly hopped will make it drinkable.
Ugh. My first truly ruined batch. So far I’ve had about two or three really tasty batches, a few mediocre ones, one bad batch that turned out decent (the Frankenbeer), and now one that was worthy of being poured out without based solely on the smell. It’s a sad day in the Warbiany household
That’s a downright lowdown dirty shame. I haven’t had the funk yet in any of my beers. I use bottled and/or filtered water for the entire process.
Current inventory:
Anchor Steam clone (18 bottles left)
India Pale Ale (two cases)
American Premium, first batch I tried to cut the malt to make a “lighter” beer for friends, jury still out as it’s still in the carboy.
Wheat Beer, getting bottled tomorrow to give Sis for Christmas.
Nothing but lots and lots of care to make sure everything is super-clean and sanitized. In reality, even if I do that, it’s possible for beer to get infected, as the air around us is full of nasty things. But it greatly reduce the chances of it happening.
In addition, I was looking at my equipment storage, and I saw some issues where I could have cross-contamination and standing water, so I’ve changed my storage procedures…
Comment by Brad Warbiany — November 22, 2006 @ 3:50 pm
[...] Well, after the infection incident, I ended up really disheartened about this brewing hobby. I had also just recently brewed a beer called Sister Star of the Sun, a recipe that I picked up online that’s won several awards. I was worried that this brew just wasn’t going to be good, further getting me down on the brewing process. [...]
I’m sad. No more Big Ten football until the bowl games start. Yes, Purdue has a game against Hawaii next Saturday, but it doesn’t appear it will be televised, and it starts at 11 PM EST due to the time change. So it’s about time for a wrap-up.
First things first… Before the season, I made a bet on where Purdue would finish. There were a lot of people predicting Purdue to finish somewhere near the basement of the Big Ten. So I bet a couple bottles of homebrew against $10-15 worth of beer I can’t get in Georgia. The terms of the bet were based on whether Purdue would finish 5th or better in the conference, and with a tie for fourth, I won. Thank you Boilermakers! Mmm… Beer
1: Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0, 8-0) Projected Bowl: Nat’l Championship Game, Jan 8, Glendale, AZ
What can you say about the Buckeyes this year? Really, it all comes down to two words: Troy Smith. The odds-on favorite for the Heisman, Smith has been the key to the OSU offense all year long. A few years ago, Smith was known for his propensity to pull down the ball and run. He’s got great scrambling ability, and he’s added a strong, accurate arm to go with it. He’s known as a scrambler, but instead of pulling the ball down and running, he scrambles with his eyes downfield to make a big play. How do you defend a guy like this?
Troy Smith is a baaaaaad mutha!
Add to that, a competent running game, some very talented receivers, and a defense known for their ability to force turnovers. Michigan is the only team that had a chance to put up a fight, but even then, it took three turnovers to get close. I didn’t really believe in Ohio State until the Michigan game, but now, I think it’s almost time to just award them the trophy. All I can do as a Purdue fan is be thankful that Troy Smith is graduating this year, because I don’t want to face him next year!
T-2. Michigan Wolverines (11-1, 7-1) Projected Bowl: Rose Bowl, Jan 1, Pasadena, CA
Michigan never looked quite as dominating as Ohio State throughout the year, but I always believed that was by design. I think their show of offensive fireworks last night was vindication of that belief. Lloyd Carr is by nature a conservative coach, and Michigan did a great job of all year winning games utilizing great defense and a clock-eating running game. Yesterday showed what this offense is capable of, and I think we’ll see the same thing on Jan 1.
Michigan was tough this year, but they should terrorize opponents next year. They may lose some of their defensive prowess, but with Henne and Hart as seniors and another year of development for Arrington and Manningham, they’re going to light up some scoreboards. They should be favored over just about any opponent they’ll face in the Rose Bowl. It’s a damn shame that Lloyd Carr will probably get fired if he loses to Jim Tressel and Ohio State one more time…
T-2. Wisconsin Badgers (11-1, 7-1) Projected Bowl: Capitol One Bowl, Jan 1, Orlando, FL vs SEC #2
Wisconsin was picked in the pre-season to finish outside the top 25. They returned 2 offensive starters, most of their defense, and their head coach became the athletic director of Wisconsin, turning the reins of the team to his defensive coordinator, Bret Bielema. With all the turmoil, it’s astounding that they finished so well. On the back of freshman freight-train running back PJ Hill, and the senior leadership of John Stocco, they put together a heck of a season for their new coach.
However, they haven’t gotten a lot of media love. Wisconsin is one of the most unproven 1-loss teams in the country, which probably explains their #9 ranking, behind 2-loss LSU. While they haven’t had the “big win” to prove themselves, they’ve taken care of business in every game against a team not named Michigan. All but one of their wins were double-digit margins, and they played better than expected. Either way, with their season complete, they have only up to go from here, solidifying a top-ten slot. They have one chance to prove their worth, and that happens on January 1 against a tough SEC team (likely either Arkansas or Florida, whoever loses the SEC championship game, although it’s possible both teams go to BCS bowls). If they manage to win their bowl game, we may have three Big Ten teams finishing with top 5 rankings.
T-4. Penn State (8-4, 5-3) Projected Bowl: Outback Bowl, Jan 1, Tampa, FL vs. SEC
Penn State may be the best 4-loss team in the country. They’ve lost to #1 Ohio State, #3 Michigan, #6 Notre Dame, and #10 Wisconsin. Against competition like that, and the fact that they actually played well in 3 of those games, and they’re looking pretty decent.
Penn State has most of the defensive tools left over from last year. Their linebackers are the best in the Big Ten, their D-line is very strong, and their defensive backfield, while young, is very talented. The defense hasn’t been a problem. The offense replaced QB Michael Robinson with a talented Anthony Morelli, along with most of their offensive line, and the result was inconsistency. A young quarterback can do well if he’s given time to throw (i.e. USC this year), but if you put the pressure on, cracks appear. Penn State felt those cracks, but managed to make sure that only the teams they were supposed to lose to managed to do it. Penn State is a tough team, and may come up with a bowl win, depending who they face (hopefully, for their sake, not LSU).
T-4. Purdue (8-4, 5-3) Projected Bowl: Alamo Bowl, Dec 30, San Antonio, TX vs. Big 12 #4
Purdue is a team coming off their first losing season in 9 years, and clearly was looking at a rebuilding year. I believe between offense and defense, we were starting about 3 seniors. On offense, we returned quite a few starters, but most of the skill players were sophomores (or JuCo transfers). On defense, two stars left early for the NFL, and we found ourselves starting three true freshmen in the secondary, a few fresh/soph on the line, with our only mildly-veteran unit being the linebackers. Luckily, though, the schedule worked out that we started against 4 weak teams, and didn’t have to face Michigan or Ohio State, who would have cleaned our clocks.
Purdue isn’t a great team this year. We’ve only beaten one bowl-eligible team (although our win over Indiana is what kept them from bowl-eligibility). But we’ve beaten everyone on our schedule we were supposed to and we’ve beaten three teams we were underdogs against (Minnesota, Michigan State, and Illinois). Even better, we’ve been involved in several close games, and won all of them. While I hated to watch us get beaten by double digits against the teams we lost to, two of them are top-ten teams, Iowa played their best game of the season against us, and Penn State has now worked it’s way into the #25 BCS ranking.
Overall, I’m satisfied with the year. Next year is the big one. Yes, we’ll have Michigan and Ohio State back on the schedule, but Ohio State should lose offensive firepower. Many of the toughest teams in the Big Ten are graduating their senior QB’s, along with Notre Dame, who will likely fall off a bit without Brady Quinn. Last, we have a favorable schedule, getting some of our toughest opponents at home. Next year Purdue has a shot at winning the Big Ten if things fall right, and I can say I’d enjoy that very much.
T-6. Minnesota (6-6, 3-5) Projected Bowl: Champs Sports Bowl, Dec 29, Orlando, FL vs. ACC #4
Minnesota is a team that’s been alternating seasons in the middle of the Big Ten with the bottom of the conference, with occasional (unrealized) dreams of conference titles. This year was an odd one, because they lost their top two running backs, and two starting offensive linemen. They were expected to be sitting at the bottom of the conference, and yet managed to claw their way up to the middle, on the backs of Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana, and an uncharacteristic passing attack. It seems odd that the team who barely beat I-AA North Dakota State is going to a bowl game, but I’m sure they’ll take it.
Things may improve a few years down the road, when they move out of the Metrodome and into their own stadium on campus. But they’ve got a history of weak defense, and unless they figure out how to address that, they’ll be in trouble for a while.
T-6. Indiana (5-7, 3-5) Projected Bowl: Not Eligible
Indiana seems to be teetering on the edge of reviving their program. New coach Terry Hoeppner really has these kids beginning to believe in themselves. They make young mistakes, but they’re showing flashes of what they can be. With Coach Hep’s medical troubles this year, I think all of us were pulling for them. I really didn’t want to see them fighting for bowl eligibility against Purdue, because I knew we’d be the ones that had to dash those dreams. Indiana has a lot of young talent, and when they get it together, they might climb out of the conference cellar.
T-8. Iowa (6-6, 2-6) Projected Bowl: Insight Bowl, Dec 29, Phoenix, AZ vs. Big 12 #6
What happened to Iowa? Expected in the preseason to fight for the Big Ten title, they’ve melted down completely. How? Well, some defensive injuries played a big part. Beyond that, Iowa graduated their top wide receivers. While Drew Tate is a heck of a quarterback, I think he found himself in situations where he was trying to do too much, forcing the game because he wasn’t on the same page as his receivers. The result? Interceptions. 12 by Tate himself, and another 6 thrown in by his backups when he was injured. When you’re turning the ball over, giving your opponent good field position, you’re in trouble.
This team is looking a lot like Purdue 2005, a team with big expectations and bad results. There’s plenty of talent, but things just fell apart. Better luck next year, and with Kirk Ferentz coaching, I’m sure there will be better results…
T-8. Northwestern (4-8, 2-6) Projected Bowl: Not Eligible
Northwestern, like Iowa, was one of those teams everyone hoped would do well. Their head coach, Randy Walker, unexpectedly passed away shortly before the season. This came on top of the graduation of their starting QB, Brett Basanez, and of their star linebacker, Tim McGarigle. Assistant coach Pat Fitzgerald took over on short notice, and the team was forced to deal with a lot in a very short time.
Over the year, they rotated through several quarterbacks, eventually settling on the most pass-oriented of the bunch, CJ Bacher. Once they got him settled, they started to perform, with late-season wins over Iowa and Illinois. Hopefully they’ll have some momentum heading into 2007, as the team finally seemed to come together at the end of the year, and most of those players will be coming back.
T-10: Michigan State (4-8, 1-7) Projected Bowl: Not eligible
For many of the teams at the bottom of the Big Ten, you look at the good signs that they may be headed upwards. This team has been heading down for several years, and this year was the worst. It’s bad news when you announce mid-season that your coach is getting fired, it’s even worse when there are rumors circulating that the players were happy about it.
After this year, they lose QB Drew Stanton, who is talented, if inconsistent. Bringing in a new coaching staff may be just what they need, but then again, they’ve been through several new coaching staffs over the last few years, and we see where they are now. Michigan is a good recruiting state, so if they get things back on track, they can get back quickly. But another bad coach might put them too far behind, that it will take an overhaul of the entire program to recover from.
T-10. Illinois (2-10, 2-6) Projected Bowl: Not eligible
Illinois brought in coach Ron Zook from Florida, and immediately, as is known for Zook, their recruiting rankings shot sky-high. I don’t know if he’s offering kids hookers and blow, but he manages to attract some pretty talented players. If he had a clue how to coach them on game day, he might actually be successful!
Seriously, with the talent Illinois is bringing in, I definitely expect them to start to recover. This year, they’re looking like the best 2-win team in the nation. Even with Zook as their coach, they’ll still pull themselves out of the conference basement. But with Zook as their head coach, they’ll never be great. Either way, there is some excitement brewing with QB Juice Williams, and they just might find a way to be well above this spot over the next two years.
[...] Brad Warbiany posts his wrap-up of the 2006 Big Ten Season and this summary of the Buckeyes that I can’t disagree with at all: What can you say about the Buckeyes this year? Really, it all comes down to two words: Troy Smith. The odds-on favorite for the Heisman, Smith has been the key to the OSU offense all year long. A few years ago, Smith was known for his propensity to pull down the ball and run. He’s got great scrambling ability, and he’s added a strong, accurate arm to go with it. He’s known as a scrambler, but instead of pulling the ball down and running, he scrambles with his eyes downfield to make a big play. How do you defend a guy like this? [...]
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Ahh, the biggest week of the year. The one that is always important, regardless of the record. That’s right, it’s the Old Oaken Bucket game! Every year, Purdue and Indiana play for this traveling trophy. Each year, the winner gets to hold the bucket for the next year, and a “P” is added to the chain for a Purdue win, an “I” for an Indiana win. In the case of a tie, an “IP” is added. Since the trophy was created, there have been 52 “P”s, 25 “I”s, and 3 “IP”s. Mark it down, there will be 53 “P”s on the chain come tomorrow.
Of course, that’s the appetizer. Even as a die-hard Purdue fan, tomorrow’s main course is the Michigan/Ohio State game. There’s something to be said for a rivalry between two storied programs, that is widely considered one of the biggest rivalries in sports, being played when the teams are ranked #1 and #2, both undefeated. We’re talking here about THE game. And we’re talking about two schools whose fans have had a pleasant hatred for decades.
When it wasn’t possible to get any bigger, it was reported that Bo Schembechler passed away the day before the game, and the significance impossibly grew. Bo, say hi to Woody for us up there when you’re watching this one!
#21 Maryland (8-2, 5-1) @ #20 Boston College (8-2, 4-2) Vegas Says: Boston College -7
Two evenly-ranked teams are facing each other, and one is favored by 7… Initially I don’t like it. You don’t figure that unless there’s a matchup issue. But this week, there is. Looking at the average points scored per game, Boston College is leading Maryland by about 4. On the opposite end, BC is allowing 7 less points per game than Maryland.
Maryland doesn’t gain a lot of yards, nor do they manage to score very well. It’s surprising, then that they’ve got an 8-2 record. Boston College can both score and play defense. It’s no surprise that they’re 8-2. I have to think BC has the edge here, especially being at home. They can cover 7.
Prediction: Boston College covers Predicted Final Score: Boston College 28, Maryland 17 Final Score: Boston College 38, Maryland 16 Prediction: RIGHT
It shows just how far Iowa has fallen that they’re 3-point underdogs to Minnesota. Iowa was supposed to challenge for the Big Ten title this year. Instead, out of a big win over Purdue on their best showing of the season, they’ve been a big bust. Minnesota had their typical mid-year slide, but somehow seems to have righted the ship, with a blowout win over Indiana and a strong beating of Michigan State.
But something doesn’t sit with me on this one. Iowa, in their defeats, have turned the ball over in large doses. Their baffling 21-7 loss to Northwestern included 3 turnovers. Outside of those, they were > 50% on 3rd down, threw at a 66% completion percentage, and but for the fact that Northwestern actually appears to have found a balanced offense, may have overcome those deficits. Coming off that loss, they played inspired football against a very strong Wisconsin team, in a 24-21 loss.
Iowa looks like a team on the skids, but I think they’ve got more talent on both sides of the ball than Minnesota. This week, they’re not facing the Wisconsin defense (that they gained 300 yards on), and Iowa has a stronger defense than either Michigan State or Indiana. Drew Tate has had a rough year, but he’s a gamer. Lose a rivalry game to Minnesota? He ain’t goin’ out like that!
Prediction: Iowa beats the spread Predicted Final Score: Iowa 27, Minnesota 24 Final Score: Minnesota 34, Iowa 24 Prediction: WRONG
As I said earlier, this is a big one. This is one of those games where all the rules go out the window. Back in the days when both teams sucked, the season was a success if you went 1-10 and that win came in this game. In the state of Indiana, Purdue is probably the best overall university. But we’ve got a bit of a complex about that. We’re in the northwest corner of the state. Notre Dame is in the northeast corner, and Indiana is in the southern half. When it comes down to it, everyone from Indianapolis south are IU fans, most of the northern Indiana folks are Notre Dame fans, and people who actually attended Purdue are Purdue fans. Beating IU is important for all the kids on the roster who grew up in Indiana, because many of them come from towns where everyone supported IU or Notre Dame.
This game comes down to one thing: anger. If the Boilers win, they ruin the Hoosiers’ season. Indiana needs this win to go to their first bowl game since 1993, and Purdue is already bowl-eligible. While you’d think that would give Indiana more to play for than Purdue, Purdue wants to win not to improve our own standings (which it will), but to destroy IU’s season and keep the Bucket. There’s a certain sense of purpose that whatever happens during the rest of the season, IU should not walk away from this game with the Bucket, and that IU should have taken care of their bowl aspirations before coming into Ross-Ade Stadium.
When it comes to analysis of the game, Purdue will have the ability to throw at will on Indiana’s defense. They’ll probably run at will also. Indiana has a few offensive threats, namely 6′7″ wide receiver James Hardy, and dual-threat QB Kellen Lewis. Purdue basically needs to have Hardy at least double-teamed at all times. Luckily for Purdue, Indiana’s offensive line is a bit undersized, so I think defensive end Anthony Spencer will make his introductions with Lewis early and often.
Purdue wins this one. I don’t know if it will be as much of a blowout as some folks are expecting, but Purdue takes it.
Prediction: No official prediction Final Score: Purdue 28, Indiana 19
Northwestern appears to have found a balanced offense with QB CJ Bacher behind center, which is opening up their game. Illinois has found balance between QB Juice Williams running the ball and RB Pierre Thomas running the ball, but if you’re looking for the forward pass, they seem to have a rulebook from 1903 which doesn’t allow such shenanigans. Illinois may not have a balanced offensive attack, but they do have a defense, something which Northwestern is conspicuously lacking. This may be a road game for Illinois, but it’s in Evanston, so it will be less well-attended than high school football, so that shouldn’t be a factor. Illinois wins this one based on Ron Zook’s recruiting, and this week even Ron Zook’s coaching can’t stop them!
Prediction: Illinois covers Predicted Final Score: Illinois 34, Northwestern 20 Final Score: Northwestern 27, Illinois 16 Prediction: WRONG
Do you like scoring? If so, this game between two offensive powerhouses, with an over/under of 69 points, might be just for you! Both teams are averaging big offensive numbers (4 TD’s) per game, and this one will be in a rare non-windy day in Lubbock, TX, so it’s probably a good day for the defensive coordinators to call in sick…
As for the line, I don’t like it much. Texas Tech has a slight advantage in yards gained and defensive yards allowed, but they’re scoring less points and giving up roughly the same amount. These are two evenly-matched teams, and despite Texas Tech’s offense, they’ve been held to under 25 points four times this season, while OK State has only had that happen once. I’m not sure who will win this one, but Oklahoma State will get their points. This will be a shootout, and while I’m expecting Oklahoma State to beat the spread (and going out on a limb picking them to win), I’d be a lot happier with 7.5 than 6.5.
Prediction: Oklahoma State beats the spread Predicted Final Score: Oklahoma State 38, Texas Tech 35 Final Score: Texas Tech 30, Oklahoma State 24 Prediction: RIGHT
I saw this line, and my initial reaction was “WHAT?!” Auburn only by 3? Against a team who is 2-5 in conference? But with a little bit of digging, I realized that 4 of Alabama’s 5 losses came playing currently-ranked teams, two of which were close games. Auburn has big wins over LSU and Florida, but got blown out by Arkansas and an inconsistent Georgia team at home. And this is a major rivalry game (although today, nobody outside the state of Alabama will be watching it).
On paper, the teams seem pretty well matched. Auburn has an advantage in scoring offense and points allowed, but overall the two teams look just about identical. I think Auburn does have an advantage in that Alabama seems to throw more effectively than they run, and Auburn does a decent job defending the pass. Really, I think this game will be close, but it will come down to one thing. Auburn has the running game to score in the red zone, while Alabama settles for a field goal, in a fairly low-scoring affair.
Prediction: Auburn covers Predicted Final Score: Auburn 17, Alabama 13 Final Score: Auburn 22, Alabama 15 Prediction: RIGHT
#19 Virginia Tech (8-2, 4-2) @ #14 Wake Forest (9-1, 5-1) Vegas Says: PICK’EM
Oh, how I really want to pick Wake Forest. They’re looking like they’re in the middle of a dream season, with potential ACC championship and BCS hopes. They’ve faced some tough teams, and but for a sloppy, turnover-laden loss to Clemson, could be undefeated right now. Virginia Tech, of course, is a team that looked like it might be in trouble in the middle of the season, after a 22-3 drubbing by then-unranked Boston College. But they’ve picked things up and played strong since.
Everyone’s pulling for Wake in this game, but I don’t see it happening. Statistically, Virginia Tech is better on both offense and defense. Wake has had decent luck scoring, but it’s going to be a lot tougher against the Hokies. For Wake to win, they need to establish a running game against a defense giving up 2.9 yards per carry. Or, get a passing game going against the second-ranked pass defense in the NCAA. I don’t see it happening. Virginia Tech is hungry for interceptions, and I think their defense will win out in the end.
Prediction: Virginia Tech wins Predicted Final Score: Virginia Tech 13, Wake Forest 10 Final Score: Virginia Tech 27, Wake Forest 6 Prediction: RIGHT
USC has been tested this year, and has been playing with fire. They may be able to sneak into an MNC berth if they win out the rest of their schedule, but I, for one, don’t believe they can do it. I think USC is overrated. They’re pretty likely to lose one of their next three, and given that I also think Notre Dame is overrated, I think this might be the week.
USC has been a bit inconsistent this year. They have the weapons, in Steve Smith and Dwayne Jarrett, to beat Cal. This is a game, though, where they can’t allow mistakes, or Cal will punish them. Cal is coming off an unexpected loss @ Arizona, and you know they’re playing now for the Pac-10 Title, the Rose Bowl berth, and a chance to destroy USC’s championship aspirations. They’ve got an offense more than capable of hanging with USC all game.
So it’s going to come down to offensive execution and defensive play. Advantage Cal on the execution side, as USC has been inconsistent. Advantage USC on defense, as they appear to be pretty solid against the run, which is Cal’s specialty (not to say Cal can’t throw, though). In this one, I think Cal has the offensive firepower to overwhelm USC’s defense in a way nobody else has, and USC will get in just enough trouble executing on offense to make this a very close game. Cal wins in a squeaker.
Prediction: Cal beats the spread Predicted Final Score: Cal 34, USC 30 Final Score: USC 23, Cal 9 Prediction: WRONG
GAME OF THE WEEKYEAR CENTURY
#2 Michigan (11-0, 8-0) @ #1 Ohio State (11-0, 8-0) Vegas Says: Ohio State -7
Battles don’t get much more epic than this one. The winner of this game will be the odd-on favorite to win it all. The loser of this game will be the favorite to win in the Rose Bowl. These teams are just that good. And every matchup is an epic. The explosive Ohio State offense vs the stingy Michigan defense. The only potential chink in Ohio State’s armor, their run defense, against the goliath offensive line and shifty Mike Hart.
So many questions. Can Michigan’s run defense defend Troy Smith if he goes mobile? Can either defense defend Mario Manningham and Ted Ginn? Can Michigan even score against the nation’s #1 scoring defense? And if so, will it be defensive scores, or will their offense take care of it? Something has to break today, and it’s either Ohio State’s offense, or Michigan’s defense. The only team that can stop Ohio State’s offense is Michigan, and the only team that can beat Michigan’s defense is Ohio State. Add to the mix that this is college football’s most storied rivalry, and you’ve got yourself a game!
But the Bucks by 7? I realize Troy Smith is a steel-eyed and cool-handed in big games, but Texas’ defense is not Michigan’s. Nor will Michigan pull the Texas strategy of (successfully) attacking OSU in the run for the first quarter of the game, and then quitting and going to the air. Lloyd Carr is too patient (read: conservative) to do that. I personally think Michigan answers the call and the defense wins this game, but I can’t see OSU winning by large numbers unless Henne has a meltdown and gifts them some turnovers (which the OSU secondary will be more than happy to take). Either way, I don’t see this game being decided by more than 7 points. If anyone has the ability to blow a game open, it’s Ohio State, but Michigan will put up more of a fight than either Texas or Penn State, OSU’s two biggest tests to date.
Something tells me that the world has crowned Ohio State the champion before their time, and the reason they’ve done so is purely that Michigan finished last season 7-5. Ohio State might pull this one out, and if anyone can do it, it’s Troy Smith. He has already beaten Michigan twice. But that Michigan defense wasn’t coached by Ron English, and there wasn’t a healthy Mike Hart. Add those two into the mix, and Michigan might surprise some folks. If they can get out to an early lead, they can control the game, and keep this from being an OSU blowout. If OSU gets the early lead, Michigan might be in trouble (and so will my pick).
Prediction: Michigan beats the spread Predicted Final Score: Michigan 17, Ohio State 16 Final Score: Ohio State 42, Michigan 39 Prediction: RIGHT
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UPDATE: Well, at the end of the day, I somehow managed another 5-3 day against the spread, which perfectly continues my 62.5% percentage. Oddly enough, I was only 3-5 straight up, which is never a good sign… On the year, I’m 45-27 against the spread, and 49-23 straight up.
Purdue/IU was a comedy of errors, but my Boilers came through, which is all I really care about. Michigan/OSU was a heck of a game, although someone needs to look for Michigan’s run defense, I think the bus got lost on the way to Columbus. Rutgers lost, so the Big East is officially out of the national championship picture, although given the close UM/OSU game, those two teams may be in a rematch on Jan 8. All I can ask is that somehow, some way, Notre Dame is kept out of the MNC game.
You may have been right about the spread of the OSU-Michigan game, but it’s the result that matters.
As for the outcome of the Rutgers-Cincy game, all I can say (in the best tradition of Commander Adama in the new version of Battlestar Galactica) is….. FRAK !
Nice prediction on the OSU-scUM game, though it wouldn’t have been that close if we had kept the turnover ratio more even or in the plus column for our side. Oh well, on to the next #2.
P.S. – So much for the Rutgers scenario, 30-11 drubbing by another Ohio team.
Yep… Rutgers screwed up my BCS-busting scenario… Although with the close game between UM and OSU, there might be big calls for a rematch. If that’s the case, I might have good BCS-controversy blog post fodder…
At least now I can focus on USC trying to destroy Notre Dame’s MNC aspirations
Comment by Brad Warbiany — November 19, 2006 @ 11:27 am
Doug,
You’re entirely right… I base my prediction correct/incorrect based on the spread (since that’s what the bets would be based on)… Who would have guessed that Michigan couldn’t stop OSU’s offense well enough that they ever even attempted a field goal? Without the two silly fumbles, that might have been a more lopsided game.
Oh, and Troy Smith just won the Heisman.
Comment by Brad Warbiany — November 19, 2006 @ 11:33 am
Nice page, 10x better than “Solon’s Picks.” I’ve read through his picks 2-3 times and am still not really sure who the hell he picked to win the damn game.
Comment by Anthony Reddick's Helmet — November 19, 2006 @ 3:24 pm
Thanks, ARH…
Comment by Brad Warbiany — November 19, 2006 @ 7:17 pm
This song brings me back. I remember thinking— wishingly— in high school that I’d get into the real world, where results matter more than popularity. Maybe that’s why I hate Southern California so much, it reminds me of the cliquishness of high school, where it matters less who you are than who you’re seen with. At least now, I live in the world of engineering… When your coolness factor is compared to guys who will wait in line for a Playstation, it really lowers the bar. By those standards, I’m a pretty hip fella!
So, we’re rapidly reaching a point where a dangerous scenario may occur.
Let’s assume that the winner of tomorrow’s Michigan/OSU game goes on to the MNC game, facing a 1-loss Florida or Arkansas team. That Florida/Arkansas team beats Michigan/OSU in a very close game, to win the MNC game and is crowned the champion.
At the same time, Rutgers, who finishes the season undefeated with a close defeat of WVU, and who had been passed over for the #2 spot in the BCS poll, doesn’t go to the MNC game. Yet they come into their BCS bowl game and blow out a team like USC.
After the season, the polls have Rutgers as the #1 team, and as the only undefeated team left in the country (from a BCS conference, anyway); they understandably think they deserve to be the champion. But since they don’t play on Jan 8, it doesn’t matter, the winner of that game is the champion.
How much damage does this scenario— which is certainly plausible— do to the entire BCS system?
UPDATE: Post above changed to reflect that the winner of the Michigan/OSU game will go on to the MNC game, not the loser. Thanks to JimmyJ for the correction…
I’ve been away for awhile, I assume MNC stands for Mock National Championship?
Your nightmare scenario will not happen. Rutgers, if they beat WVU to get into a BCS game, will lose said game (my guess), but first I think WVU beats them. Which means all road travelers in that series lose the big game.
Winner or OSU-UM will crush whomever they play in the title game.
Going with the scenario that all probabilities are 50/50, you first have Rutgers beating WVU, then Rutgers winning their BCS game, then winner of OSU-scUM losing their game, or 0.5*0.5*0.5 = 0.125, or 7-1 odds against it happening.
The winner of UM/OSU will probably be 65% favorites heading into their title game. Let’s assume Rutgers is 50% to beat WVU (I have higher hopes than you, I’d guess), and that they’re matched up against someone like USC in the championship, and so they’re only 40% to win that one.
0.35*0.5*0.40 = 0.07
Roughly a 1 in 16 chance if you just pick some decent numbers. Still, it’s not that implausible. Let’s say OSU wins but Smith is injured late in the game to take himself out of the MNC game. Or Rutgers gets matched up in the BCS against Boise St (to raise the ratings in a “Battle of the Unbeatens”). It could easily jump as a probability.
Not likely, no. But certainly plausible.
Comment by Brad Warbiany — November 17, 2006 @ 11:51 am
You’re watching too many episodes of Myth Busters; it’s plausible, but highly unlikely.
You’re right, Jack… It’s the best I could come up with this morning, though… You have something better to talk about?
Comment by Brad Warbiany — November 17, 2006 @ 12:58 pm
The rankings are arbitrary, and this is certainly throwing the system for a loop – but as a true Jersey boy, I am psyched for Rutgers. What are you doing for the game tomorrow? My coworker and I just entered to win tickets so the championship game in January, so I’m crossing my fingers. It’s on the Tostitos BCS site, if you wanna try yourself, too.
Comment by IceBucket — November 17, 2006 @ 4:37 pm
This news came across my inbox today. With sadness, I must pass it along:
Milton Friedman, the Nobel Prize-winning economist who advocated an unfettered free market and had the ear of Presidents Nixon, Ford and Reagan, died Thursday. He was 94.
…
In more than a dozen books and in his column in Newsweek magazine, Friedman championed individual freedom in economics and politics.
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His theories won him a Nobel Prize in economics in 1976.
Milton Friedman, in addition to his economic work, was a champion of individual freedom and bears his mark on the philosophy of the authors here. He is a central figure in the philosophy of libertarianism and free-market economics. He will be missed, but in that emotion, he will also be remembered.
As a blogger, I’m a regular reader of Catallarchy, where his grandson, Patri Friedman, posts. In addition, I regularly read Milton’s son David Friedman’s blog “Ideas”, and read his book, The Machinery of Freedom. Being involved in the world of blogging, reading their work (and sharing Patri’s affinity for poker), it makes something like this a little bit more personal. So I’d like to extend my condolences to both of them, and their entire family, for their loss.
Purdue has been a bit inconsistent as a team this year. To some extent, that’s had to do with facing their two toughest opposing defenses on days where they were also battling 25-mph gusty winds, which doesn’t bode well for a pass-happy attack. But more than this, it’s just been a case of young players still finding their rhythm. Some days Curtis Painter was a bit off. Other days, he’s throwing the ball well and the receivers are dropping it. Occasionally, the playcalling just hasn’t been where it needs to be for Purdue to succeed. But there are flashes of brilliance, which will hopefully continue this week as Purdue takes on our hated rival, the Hoosiers.
Below is one of those flashes of brilliance. Purdue has run a lot of draw plays up the gut all year, and against Illinois found themselves with 3rd and inches. Illinois, thinking they knew what was coming, brought a blitz and crashed the middle of the defense. Curtis Painter made a good read on the option, and away he goes:
And then, there are the plays which make you go “D’OH!” Below is the final play of the Penn State game. Purdue, threatened with its first shutout in 10 years, decided to pull out all the stops. Bear in mind, there was no way to win the game, even scoring a touchdown would leave them down by 5 points. But instead, they decided to try to go all-out, putting numerous starting players at risk of injury, for a futile attempt at trickeration:
Happy Thanksgiving! I can’t believe I am sending you holiday greetings via the blogoshpere. Have fun shopping. That’s some effen pandemonium that I don’t want to deal with.
Comment by Mark — November 24, 2006 @ 4:20 am
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