The Unrepentant Individual

...just hanging around until Dec 21, 2012

December 2, 2006

How Correct Analysis Leads to Wrong Results

When you start a 5-game pick 0-3 on the day, it really doesn’t make you feel very good. I did so, and it makes me wonder how good my analysis skills are doing… But I’ve looked at these games, and the analysis was sound. I correctly saw what the teams could do to each other, and what they needed to do to win. Where I was wrong is my prediction of whether they’d take care of that business.

1) Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech

I said Wake would have an offensive letdown against GT. I further said that wake had a good rush defense, and that GT would need to exploit Wake’s pass defense to win the game, and if they could do so, they’d win easily. Wake’s offense was inept against GT’s defense. GT’s rushing attack didn’t do much against Wake’s defense. I said that if Ball and Johnson could hook up, they could run rampant on Wake’s pass D. So what did they do? Ball threw for a 31% completion rate and 2 interceptions. They had the talent to beat Wake, they just didn’t execute.


My pick was that UCLA would score a mere 17 on USC’s defense. They underperformed slightly, scoring 13. I said the key to the game would be UCLA’s defense rattling John David Booty, and that I didn’t think they could do it (due to the low number of sacks and interceptions he’s thrown). So what did they do? Prove me wrong with several sacks, generally keeping him “hearing footsteps” all game long, and throwing a pick.

Really, even with UCLA doing what I expected, I still didn’t think they’d win it. But this is a rivalry game, and these things happen. I can’t wait to see the uproar in the BCS, though… Fodder for blog posts for the next month!

3) Arkansas @ Florida

I said Florida would need to stop Darren McFadden, and that since nobody else had done so, they wouldn’t either. They proved me wrong, and held him to 99 total yards. Without McFadden, Arkansas had to rely on their passing game, which I said would have to be average, and they couldn’t afford interceptions. So they threw for under 50%, 182 yards, 3 TD’s and 3 INT’s.

Florida’s defense stepped up, taking Arkansas’s offense out of their gameplan. Add 4 turnovers, and Arkansas had basically no chance of making the upset.

4) Rutgers @ WVU

Well, you don’t get more right than this. I said this game would come down to a 25-24 score in favor of WVU. In regulation, they tied 23-23. That’s pretty close. I said Rutgers would have decent success running the ball. It wasn’t a huge game, rushing for 137 in regulation, but it was enough of a game to take some pressure off the passing attack (which then did some damage).

Once you get to overtime, all bets are off. But Rutgers kept the game close (and in the general scoring totals I had thought) to force an overtime, and that’s a pretty good job when you’re a 10.5 point dog on the road.

5) Nebraska @ Oklahoma

They’re into the 4th quarter as I’m heading to bed, with Oklahoma up 21-7 on Nebraska… So far it looks like Oklahoma’s defense is taking care of business, and Oklahoma is scoring at a decent rate. Unless something crazy happens in the next 9 minutes of football, this is looking like a fairly solid pick.

The Unrepentant Individual linked with 2006 NCAA Football Predictions — Week 14
Posted By: Brad Warbiany @ 11:26 pm || Permalink || Comments (2) || Trackback URL || Categories: College Football, Predictions


  1. Yes, I’m disappointed about the end of the RU-WVU game, but not that much……

    Comment by Doug Mataconis — December 3, 2006 @ 12:32 am
  2. [...] How Correct Analysis Leads to Wrong Results [...]

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