Troy Smith’s Heisman Trophy was shipped home because airport security would not allow the Ohio State quarterback to take it on the plane Tuesday.
Smith wore a black leather jacket with the Heisman insignia on back when he arrived at the airport from New York, where he was presented college football’s most coveted trophy.
Eddie George, the last Buckeye to win the Heisman in 1995, had his trophy get stuck in an airport X-ray machine, losing the tip of its right index finger and bending the middle finger.
“We decided to have it shipped. That’s much easier. How times have changed. Eddie carried it on the plane and put it in the seat next to him,” sports information director Steve Snapp said.
Smith said he didn’t mind.
“No, because Eddie’s finger got bent,” Smith said. “I don’t want that to happen to mine.”
I feel safer. Don’t you?
UPDATE: According to Doug & the Columbus Dispatch, this may not be accurate. It appears he had planned to ship the statue all along, so it was not damaged in the process. That’s what I get for trusting an unreliable blogger AP Sports Writer. Do some fact-checking next time, AP!
Maybe not. The Columbus Dispatch has a different story:
Maybe not. From the Columbus Dispatch:
Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith returned to Columbus today without his Heisman Trophy, a move designed to ensure the award arrives in one piece, and not a conspiracy by Wolverine-loving airport security, as some have suggested.
The Associated Press reported that Smith was not allowed to take his trophy on the plane. In fact, Smith didn’t even take the 25-pound bronze statue to the airport.
Smith had his trophy packed up and shipped before he went to the airport, a school spokesman said.
I wondered if the TSA still existed. I sent an email in August 06 to try to clarify how I could put my medication in my checked bag. Didn’t want to put my dozen ninty day bottles in luggage. I have never received an answer.
Second place, surprisingly, went to Arkansas RB Darren McFadden, with Brady Quinn in 3rd. Steve Slaton and Mike Hart, neither invited to the final ceremony, finished in 4th and 5th place, respectively.
Troy Smith booked his trip to the Heisman Trophy ceremony before the invitations went out.
Why wait?
Smith, the heavy favorite to win college football’s most prestigious award, was selected as a Heisman finalist Wednesday, along with Notre Dame quarterback Brady Quinn and Arkansas running back Darren McFadden.
“First and foremost, I’m very, very anxious about it,” Smith said earlier this week. “This is my first time in New York, so I’m excited about that. I’m sure all the festivities that I will partake in are going to be overwhelming.”
The senior quarterback entered the season with plenty of Heisman hype and then backed it up with brilliant play for the unbeaten Buckeyes.
Smith is fourth in the nation in passer rating (167.9) with 2,507 yards, 30 touchdown passes and only five interceptions. He might be the biggest reason No. 1 Ohio State will play No. 2 Florida for the national title on Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz.
Quinn, a senior, was fourth in Heisman voting last season and has thrown 35 touchdown passes in 2006. McFadden, a sophomore, scored 16 touchdowns and led Arkansas to the Southeastern Conference title game.
If Troy Smith doesn’t win, I think the entire city of Columbus will erupt in riots. Of course, if Smith does win, Columbus may erupt in riots… It is C-bus, after all!
But Smith has proven with absolutely solid play all year long that he deserves this award. While my own Notre Dame hatred makes me unhappy to see Brady Quinn get invited, he’s a pretty good college QB. And Darren McFadden is likely to be back here in another year or two, since he’s a sophomore. He’s already amazing, and is likely to just get better.
But neither of them have the resume of Troy Smith. Troy Smith simply has no weakness. He’s a great runner, great passer, great leader, and great decision-maker. And he has one quality that seals the deal: he rises to the occasion. Troy Smith plays well even when he’s in the biggest game of his life and all the pressure is on. Last year against Notre Dame, he came up big. This year against Texas and Michigan, he came up big. Against Florida, he’s going to light it up.
Troy Smith might as well clear space on his mantle right now, because he’s going to have a new trophy on Saturday night.
The goal of the BCS is to match up the two best football teams in the country and let them play for the championship, something not always done in the old bowl system. When it works (as in the 2005 season), it works great. What happens when there’s a lot of contention over who those two best teams are, though? Well, you can look to 2003 (“split” USC/LSU championship), or 2004 (undefeated Auburn left out of the title game), to see how bad things can get.
2006 is going to be one more of these years. Ohio State can’t “prove” they’re national champion unless they defeat Florida in the Championship game. If Florida doesn’t make it into the game, questions will be asked about the 2006 champion in the same way they were asked about 2003 and 2004. Even worse, if Michigan defeats OSU in the championship game and is crowned the BCS champion, we may see another “split” championship, as Michigan and OSU would each have beaten each other, and Florida may get the nod as the #1 team in one of the final polls. The Big Ten is criticized as being down this year, and if Michigan and OSU split their games, it only adds to Florida’s stature as “escaping” the tough SEC with only one loss.
And given the “poll” process as a selection, you have another worry. Voters may be discounting Michigan simply because they don’t want a rematch, so Michigan fans may have a legitimate gripe if they’re excluded from the game (particularly if they then go to the Rose Bowl and destroy USC, the team that jumped them into the #2 slot, and Florida beats OSU). Voters should be trying to determine who is truly the second-best team in the nation to play OSU, not fudging their ballots to ensure that Michigan doesn’t get a shot.
Only two scenarios can save 2006. If Florida makes it into the game and loses to OSU, we have a relatively clear champion. Or, if OSU plays (and beats) Michigan, and Florida loses their BCS bowl game. We’ll have to see how the polls play out today, but there’s going to be “spin” either way.
Anyone else think the heads of the BCS are very, very upset at USC today?
[...] Further thoughts from Brendan Loy and Brad Warbiany, who points out that this is likely to be another bad year for the BCS no matter who makes it to Glendale. Bookmark to: [link] [...]
When you start a 5-game pick 0-3 on the day, it really doesn’t make you feel very good. I did so, and it makes me wonder how good my analysis skills are doing… But I’ve looked at these games, and the analysis was sound. I correctly saw what the teams could do to each other, and what they needed to do to win. Where I was wrong is my prediction of whether they’d take care of that business.
1) Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech
I said Wake would have an offensive letdown against GT. I further said that wake had a good rush defense, and that GT would need to exploit Wake’s pass defense to win the game, and if they could do so, they’d win easily. Wake’s offense was inept against GT’s defense. GT’s rushing attack didn’t do much against Wake’s defense. I said that if Ball and Johnson could hook up, they could run rampant on Wake’s pass D. So what did they do? Ball threw for a 31% completion rate and 2 interceptions. They had the talent to beat Wake, they just didn’t execute.
2) USC @ UCLA
My pick was that UCLA would score a mere 17 on USC’s defense. They underperformed slightly, scoring 13. I said the key to the game would be UCLA’s defense rattling John David Booty, and that I didn’t think they could do it (due to the low number of sacks and interceptions he’s thrown). So what did they do? Prove me wrong with several sacks, generally keeping him “hearing footsteps” all game long, and throwing a pick.
Really, even with UCLA doing what I expected, I still didn’t think they’d win it. But this is a rivalry game, and these things happen. I can’t wait to see the uproar in the BCS, though… Fodder for blog posts for the next month!
3) Arkansas @ Florida
I said Florida would need to stop Darren McFadden, and that since nobody else had done so, they wouldn’t either. They proved me wrong, and held him to 99 total yards. Without McFadden, Arkansas had to rely on their passing game, which I said would have to be average, and they couldn’t afford interceptions. So they threw for under 50%, 182 yards, 3 TD’s and 3 INT’s.
Florida’s defense stepped up, taking Arkansas’s offense out of their gameplan. Add 4 turnovers, and Arkansas had basically no chance of making the upset.
4) Rutgers @ WVU
Well, you don’t get more right than this. I said this game would come down to a 25-24 score in favor of WVU. In regulation, they tied 23-23. That’s pretty close. I said Rutgers would have decent success running the ball. It wasn’t a huge game, rushing for 137 in regulation, but it was enough of a game to take some pressure off the passing attack (which then did some damage).
Once you get to overtime, all bets are off. But Rutgers kept the game close (and in the general scoring totals I had thought) to force an overtime, and that’s a pretty good job when you’re a 10.5 point dog on the road.
5) Nebraska @ Oklahoma
They’re into the 4th quarter as I’m heading to bed, with Oklahoma up 21-7 on Nebraska… So far it looks like Oklahoma’s defense is taking care of business, and Oklahoma is scoring at a decent rate. Unless something crazy happens in the next 9 minutes of football, this is looking like a fairly solid pick.
Ahh, the final week of the regular season. How did it come so quickly? It seems like just yesterday, I was sitting in Maui with a sad case of jet lag at 3:30 AM, eagerly awaiting the start of College Gameday at 4. According to my calendar, that was September… And three months have passed? I must really be getting old!
Not too old for my mind to still work, though, judging by my record. Heading into this week, I’m 51-30 on the year, for just under a 64% winning percentage against the spread. Since you need to win greater than 55% (actually, slightly less on some online betting houses) to beat the juice, I’m doing pretty well. If I had been betting $100 a game (which I think I’ll start next year), I’d be up $1800. Let’s see if I can keep it up.
Can the Wake Forest Dream walk its way into a BCS Bowl, quite possibly with the help of Georgia Tech shooting themselves in the foot? Can Georgia Tech respond after their loss to rival Georgia, giving Reggie Ball and [probably] Calvin Johnson a proper sendoff? Wake undoubtedly has the emotional edge here, as they don’t usually sniff at a berth to the CCG, while Georgia Tech tends to have a decent enough team every few years to sit near the top of the conference.
When you analyze what these teams have done, though, you realize that Wake has to overcome a better opponent with that emotion, and that’s not an easy thing to do. I see two things that stand out. Wake’s two losses to were teams with great defenses. Tech has a great defense. Second, Wake appears to have a pretty good defense, but they give up a lot of passing yards. That tells me that if Ball & Johnson are on the same page, Calvin might light it up. Provided that Ball doesn’t have a meltdown (like all his games against Georgia), I think Tech wins easily.
Prediction: Georgia Tech covers Predicted Final Score: Georgia Tech 24, Wake 17 Final Score: Wake Forest 9, Georgia Tech 6 Prediction: WRONG
USC’s been getting stronger and stronger all year. Except for a puzzling loss to Oregon State, they would be undefeated right now, and riding the wave of blowing out Arkansas, Nebraska, and Notre Dame, three teams who will potentially be playing BCS bowl games. USC should win this game easily. But that’s my initial perception, and I need to ask myself why I’m wrong before I accept it.
There’s only one way UCLA can beat this spread, and that’s by rattling Trojan QB John David Booty. Against any other QB in his first year as a starter, I’d say that UCLA’s menacing defensive ends could do that. But not against USC, and not against Booty. He’s been sacked a mere 11 times this year, and has only thrown 8 picks. That tells me his offensive line is giving him protection, and that he’s not making bad decisions with the football. All that’s occurring with an almost nonexistent rushing game (although having two incredibly talented WR’s help).
USC is in danger of having a letdown game, but I don’t think it’s the week for it. This USC offense is too powerful, and the UCLA offense just doesn’t have the horses to keep up.
Prediction: USC covers Predicted Final Score: USC 38, UCLA 17 Final Score: UCLA 13, USC 9 Prediction: WRONG
Arkansas came out of nowhere in 2006, riding the legs of a Formula 1 Race Car Darren McFadden to heights unknown for the Hogs. They don’t appear to have a passing game of any repute, but with a guy like McFadden, getting Heisman buzz as a sophomore, they don’t need one. Florida has been a bit inconsistent behind Chris Leak, but with occasional appearances of Godzilla Tim Tebow as a running QB, they’ve been doing what’s necessary to win. This game will be a heck of a matchup. Arkansas needs to beat Florida’s stifling rush defense to have a chance. Florida needs to get success through the air to keep their playbook balanced.
Right now, I’m leaning towards Arkansas in this one. Florida gave up 200 yards on the ground in their loss to Auburn, and I don’t know if they can stop McFadden. At best, they can hope to outscore the Hogs. Of course, but for a 92-yard kickoff return, LSU wouldn’t have been able to outscore the Hogs. Florida has a lot going for them, but something tells me that Arkansas has more. The one thing Arkansas can’t do, though, is throw up an interception, something the Florida defense has been more than happy to snag when available (and sometimes when not). It doesn’t matter if the passing game isn’t working for Arkansas— after all, it rarely is. But turning the ball over could be the difference in this one.
Prediction: Arkansas beats the spread Predicted Final Score: Arkansas 26, Florida 24 Final Score: Florida 38, Arkansas 28 Prediction: WRONG
Bill Callahan has done some good things in Nebraska, returning them to near-power status. Nebraska has a heck of an offense. But has he forgotten? Defense wins championships! Oklahoma is still wondering why the loss of Adrian Peterson hasn’t destroyed their season (hint: it’s their offensive line), and they know how to play defense. They’ve only lost a game and a half (how else do you count the Oregon non-win?). So why is Oklahoma favored by only 3.5?
For the life of me, I can’t figure it out. Nebraska has been held to 20 or less on two occasions, both to defense that are statistically worse than Oklahoma’s. Oklahoma has only been held under 20 twice, to defenses that are statistically far better than Nebraska’s. I think Nebraska needs quite a bit to beat this spread, and I don’t think they’ve got what it takes to do it on Oklahoma’s defense.
Prediction: Oklahoma covers Predicted Final Score: Oklahoma 27, Nebraska 17 Final Score: Oklahoma 27, Nebraska 7 Prediction: RIGHT
GAME OF THE WEEK
#13 Rutgers (10-1, 5-1) @ #15 West Virginia (9-2, 4-2) Vegas Says: West Virginia -10.5
Hmm… West Virginia by 10.5? Rutgers has a pretty good rush defense, although against West Virginia, that’s hardly a predictor of success. West Virginia, statistically, has a heck of a rush defense, but something tells me that’s a product of them getting so far ahead of their opponents so early this year, that the opponents are forced to go to the air. It’s a good defense, but both Louisville and Maryland rushed for decent totals, and Rutgers has a much better rushing attack than either team.
This also comes with the news that WVU QB Pat White is coming off injury, so he’ll be a bit less effective than usual. I think WVU wins this game, but Rutgers keeps it close enough. And Rutgers has a defense capable of upsetting WVU.
Prediction: Rutgers beats the spread Predicted Final Score: WVU 25, Rutgers 24 Final Score: WVU 41, Rutgers 38 — 3 OT Prediction: RIGHT
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UPDATE: 2-3 ATS, 2-3 straight up. Not a good week, but after starting 0-3, it could be a lot worse. I’ve posted more thoughts on why I was wrong, as well.
But if the NFL Network’s experience is any indication, the Big Ten’s new 24-hour channel might need to enlist its fans for some arm-twisting of cable companies to see games they’ve had easy access to in the past.
While the Big Ten’s best games will still be on CBS, ABC or ESPN, the rest will be televised only by the Big Ten Network. In 2007-08, that will include 35 football games and 105 men’s basketball games.
The Big Ten said it made that decision in part because, with costs rising for college sports, it will guarantee each school an extra $7.5 million annually.
But if a cable company doesn’t carry the Big Ten Network, the fan who wants to watch, say, an Indiana-Northwestern basketball game is either shut out or must switch to satellite television. That’s what is happening with the NFL Network, which is involved in a dispute with Time Warner, the nation’s second-biggest cable carrier.
When I highlighted the first news of the Big Ten Network, I was cautiously optimistic. It has the ability to be a very positive change, or it could end up making it harder for me to watch Purdue football, as the trees around my house make it impossible for me to get satellite TV.
If this network takes off, and Comcast picks it up as an affiliate, all will be well. I’ll get great Big Ten content that I don’t get now. If it stays with only DirecTV, though, I’m going to be spending a lot of fall Saturdays sitting in sports bars watching Purdue. Again, being down here in SEC country, that will entail trying to convince some bartender to devote at least one little TV, maybe in the corner, to a little ol’ school like Purdue.
But after this year, I’m not quite as concerned about this. This year, many of Purdue’s games were televised on ESPN360 (internet), ESPN Gameplan (pay per view), ESPNU (uncommon ESPN variant) or ESPN Classic (not on basic cable). I couldn’t watch a single one of those games at home. I did watch the game televised on ESPN Gameplan at a neighbor’s house, but otherwise it was off to sports bars.
So for me, I see this as either a positive thing, if Comcast picks up the network, or neutral. In the linked story, they show that the Big Ten Network will get any game not on ABC, ESPN, or ESPN2, so they won’t be competing with ESPNU for broadcast rights. Now all I need to do is start emailing Comcast every other day to make sure they’ll carry it, and all will be well in the Warbiany household!
James Walter Quick, 42, was charged with murder in the shooting of Richard Allen Johnson, 43. Johnson died from a single shot to the chest, according to a preliminary autopsy Sunday.
The two had bet $20 on the annual game, with Quick taking South Carolina, which won 31-28, and Johnson taking Clemson, Lexington County Sheriff James Metts said. They drank beer all afternoon and watched the game Saturday at Johnson’s home, and began arguing about the bet after the game.
Metts said Quick went to his car, got the rifle he normally uses for hunting and fired one shot, hitting Johnson in the chest. Deputies arrested Quick.
Wait a second… If Quick was betting on the Gamecocks, why was he so upset? They won the game… If this is how he acts when he wins a bet, I’d hate to see it when he loses!
Well, my Boilers, a 20-point underdog, played a game down to the wire with the best offense in the nation, and got themselves beat by 7 in a 42-35 shootout. No fun for me, but it’s a lot better than it could have been, especially with a 17-0 deficit to Hawaii at the half. I really never thought Purdue could win this game until I listened to it in the 2nd half, and all of a sudden Purdue started playing like they’re capable of. At that point I thought we could win it. But, Hawaii’s offense really can’t be stopped, and they managed to come back in and win it (after an interception). Ugly stuff, but we played them to the wire, and that’s about all we can ask when you play an offensive powerhouse like Hawaii.
In other news, I finished 6-3 against the spread this weekend (66%), which brings my season total to 51-30 (63%). Notre Dame got beat worse than I thought they would, but I’ll never complain about that. Otherwise, it’s been a good weekend. If Purdue had managed to win, it would have been even better.
Well, thankfully Friday helped me get over my wrong pick from Thursday. That puts me 3-1 on the week against the spread (oddly 1-3 straight up), and I’m now 48-28 on the year.
There’s only one true game of consequence today, and that’s Notre Dame @ USC. It’s going to be a game of consequence in the Warbiany household as well, since the wife is From Southern Cal but grew up a Notre Dame fan. She actually wants to watch this game, and I think we’re going to be rooting for opposite teams.
Then, I need to figure out how to either watch or listen to the Purdue @ Hawaii game. Purdue is now a 19-point underdog, so I’m thinking I really don’t want to pay the $10 to order it and watch it online. So that might be internet radio all the way…
South Carolina has lost 5 games this year. Every one of those games was lost to a ranked (at the time) opponent. Two of those losses are to teams currently ranked in the top 10, two to teams ranked in the top 20, and the final loss (to Georgia early in the year) was a blowout to a team currently not ranked. Of their last four losses (to the teams all currently ranked in the top 20), no game was decided by more than 7 points.
Clemson looks like a tough team this year, with a high-powered offense and dominating defense. But it appears that they’ve dropped off in recent weeks, failing to score more than 20 points in each of the last three games.
South Carolina is going to keep this one close. Given the spread, and that Clemson is at home, I’ll still predict a Tiger victory, but I don’t see this being a blowout. I don’t like 5.5, because a one-touchdown margin is a loss on the bet, but I’m going to call this one for Spurrier leading the ‘Cocks to beat the spread.
Prediction: South Carolina beats the spread Predicted Final Score: Clemson 20, South Carolina 17 Final Score: South Carolina 31, Clemson 28 Prediction: RIGHT
Usually, there is a war in Florida between the Gators, ‘Canes, and ‘Noles, to see who is the dominant team. Florida won that war in mid-September, as Miami and FSU have both imploded, with Miami firing their head coach yesterday, and FSU’s nepotism-hired offensive coordinator resigning a few weeks ago. Florida, though, has been rolling offensively, with the two-headed monster of Leak and Tebow taking snaps.
This is a rivalry game, so again, stats mean little. What does mean something is what these teams are playing for. Florida State is already bowl-eligible, and this isn’t a conference game, so it really won’t affect which bowl they attend. Florida is working to impress poll voters in the hopes that they can amass a ranking high enough to get into the MNC game.
Another loss on their record, and Florida would be likely resting their starters a bit after they get a lead today. But they’re trying to make a statement, so I don’t see them taking their foot off the throttle. I think Florida is going to get an early lead, break FSU’s spirit, and then run it up.
Prediction: Florida covers Predicted Final Score: Florida 34, Florida State 17 Final Score: Florida 21, Florida State 14 Prediction: WRONG
An interesting line here… Georgia has been inconsistent all year, with their strongest showing a surprising blowout of Auburn a few weeks ago. Yet they lost to Kentucky and Vanderbilt, and just barely beat Miss St. Georgia Tech has beaten most everyone they should, with a close loss to Notre Dame, and a blowout loss to Clemson.
This game comes down to defense. Georgia Tech has enough defensive power to slow down Georgia’s offensive attack. That matchup should favor Tech. But the defense on the other side will decide this game. Can this Georgia defense force Reggie Ball into bad decisions with the football. Georgia didn’t defeat Auburn with offensive fireworks, they did it by intercepting Brandon Cox. Likewise, if Georgia doesn’t get the win in the turnover battle, they’re not going to win today.
I think we’re going to see Reggie Ball and Calvin Johnson hook up for a TD or two, and Georgia Tech’s defense make sure that they can cause more turnovers than the Georgia Tech offense will cough up. This is the year that GT has experienced offensive skill players, and Georgia is rotating through unproven QB’s. Today that’s too much for Georgia to overcome, and their win streak over GT comes to an end.
Prediction: Georgia Tech beats the spread Predicted Final Score: Georgia Tech 24, Georgia 20 Final Score: Georgia 15, Georgia Tech 12 Prediction: NO DECISION
#12 Boise State (11-0, 7-0) @ Nevada (8-3, 5-2) Vegas Says: Boise State -3
This is a pressure-cooker game for Boise State. Had they lost a game earlier this season, I’d be picking them to easily cover. But they know that the only thing standing between them and a BCS bowl berth is a win over Nevada. Nevada doesn’t have much on the line in this game as far as bowls are concerned, but the ability to claim an undefeated Boise St as a pelt will be a major victory for their team, and will win them respect.
Nevada had a rough start to the season, but has come on strong over the last 4 weeks. Boise State had a scare against SJSU, but outside of that has been solid all year. This game comes down to who wants it more, and I have to give the edge to Boise. They’ve endured a scare in that SJSU game, and I think they understand that you have to bring your A game if you want to go to the BCS. They’ll have the memory of San Jose State in their mind when they look at a tough Nevada team. I think they’ve simply got more to play for today than Nevada, and when you add that to the talent they’ve been building over several years as a WAC powerhouse, they should be able to take care of business today.
Prediction: Boise State covers Predicted Final Score: Boise State 41, Nevada 27 Final Score: Boise State 38, Nevada 7 Prediction: RIGHT
This is a big one. With Boston College losing to Miami on Thursday, the winner of this game goes to the ACC championship game to face Georgia Tech. The loser basically drops to somewhere between 3rd and 6th place in the conference, in a group of teams that will all be battling for prominent bowl selections. There’s a huge amount on the line for both teams. With a 1.5 point line for the home team, it seems that Vegas thinks they’re pretty evenly matched.
Statistically, the offenses look identical: somewhat anemic. Wake’s defense looks a bit better, but neither team’s defense looks all that bad. Wake’s two losses have come to Clemson and VATech, two very dominant defenses, to which Maryland doesn’t compare. Maryland, though, has been the king of close games, with seven games this year decided by a TD or less (they’re 6-1 in those games).
But a couple of stats stick out at me. Wake has had decent sack numbers this year. While their pass defense leaves a lot to be desired, they should be able to get to the Maryland QB. The second stat is that Maryland is giving up 48% on third-down conversions. Wake, though they don’t have a great offense, should be able to sustain drives a little better than Maryland, especially since they’ve got a more balanced offensive attack. Last week I picked VATech to beat Wake, because they have the defense to do it. Maryland doesn’t have the defense to do it.
Prediction: Wake Forest beats the spread Predicted Final Score: Wake Forest 17, Maryland 13 Final Score: Wake Forest 38, Maryland 24 Prediction: RIGHT
Purdue (8-4) @ @ #25 Hawaii (9-2) Vegas Says: Hawaii -19
This game worries me… Purdue cannot afford a big blowout before facing their bowl game. The only bowl-eligible team we’ve beat this year has been Minnesota (6-6), and if we get ourselves embarrassed in Honolulu it will be damaging to the team’s psyche heading into Orlando. If any team has the ability to do it to us, it’s Hawaii, with the #1 offense in the land. Judging from what the coaches are saying (Tiller doesn’t want to be anywhere near this game), this could be a bad day for the Boilers.
But this could also be a statement. Hawaii is a heck of a football team, but let’s face it, they’re not in a power conference. Purdue should have the size and power advantage in this game. Purdue doesn’t have a great defense, but it’s probably better than most Hawaii has faced. Purdue doesn’t have the offensive consistency that Hawaii has, but then, they’ve been playing tougher defenses than Hawaii as well.
I firmly believe that Purdue CANNOT let this game become a shootout. We simply don’t have enough consistency in our passing game to be sure we can keep up. Purdue needs to play a ball-control offense and let their superior size grind it out against Hawaii. The O/U in this game is 74 points, and if it gets anywhere near that, Purdue loses big. But I want to see Purdue keeping the ball on the ground, milking the clock, and reducing the number of times Hawaii gets to touch it. If Purdue can keep the score down in that fashion, and it’s within 10 points heading into the 4th quarter, Purdue might just be able to win this game. If they let Hawaii off to an early lead, though, and get into a game of trading scores, it’s going to be ugly. As usual, there’s no official prediction in this game, but I don’t think Purdue is going to get embarrassed today. I think we can play them to within 13 or so, and if a few breaks come our way, we can win this game.
Prediction: No Official Prediction Final Score: Hawaii 42, Purdue 35
In my opinion, both teams are a bit overrated. I think USC is at least more accurately rated, as they haven’t gotten themselves blown out at home by 26 points. I think USC is a very talented team, but they don’t stand a chance against Ohio State. I think Notre Dame is even less of a team than USC, with a defense that Ohio State would absolutely shred (again). But neither of these thoughts has much to do with what happens today.
Today we’ve got two very good coaches matching up, in possibly the second-most storied rivalry in football. You’ve got Pete Carroll and USC, who almost never lose at home, against Charlie Weis, who I also think is overrated, but is still a very, very good coach and nearly led his team to a defeat of USC last year. These teams are very well-matched, and I think this is going to be a very interesting game.
But USC is more tested. USC has been through a number of close games this season, and I think they are going to be more of a test for Notre Dame than anyone ND has faced outside of Michigan. I think USC will win this game, and they’ve got the talent to cover the spread. But I don’t think they’ll cover. There is too much emotion in this game, there is too much on the line for Weis and Notre Dame here. This is Brady Quinn’s last game against USC, and you know he’s still upset about last year’s loss. Charlie Weis, it has been said, has spent far more time preparing for the USC game in both of his years with Notre Dame than any other game. This game isn’t going to be a blowout for USC.
I’m picking Notre Dame with a score of 28. There’s a reason I’m not picking any field goals. I think Weis is going to outcoach himself today, and go for it on 4th and short at least once or twice in USC territory. I think he’ll do this and either ensure a ND touchdown on that drive, or give the ball up. Either way, I don’t know that they’ll attempt a field goal all day, despite the fact that they’ve got a good FG kicker.
Prediction: Notre Dame beats the spread Predicted Final Score: USC 31, Notre Dame 28 Final Score: USC 44, Notre Dame 24 Prediction: WRONG
Well, Boston College let me down yesterday, which is no way to start a weekend. Thankfully, I have two full days of college football to make up for it. Since I gave in and went shopping, I should have enough husbandly-duty-credit with the wife to watch quite a bit of these games too!
I’ll break this out into two posts… One for each day of games. This should be a particularly good week, too, as it’s Rivarly Week!
We’ve got two good football teams here. aTm is coming off two straight 1-point losses to ranked teams. Texas is coming off a puzzling loss to mid-level program Kansas State. With a win today, Texas will clinch the Big 12 South, but if they lose, and Oklahoma wins (which is likely), Oklahoma will take the division and head to the championship game. aTm, with a win, simply clinches their 4th place spot in the conference, and for bowl selection purposes will be much better off at 5-3 than 4-4 in conference. Both teams have things riding on the line here.
I think aTM is going to come out to play today. Statwise, both teams have very good offenses, and both have mid-level defenses. Where the problem may occur is in the matchups. Texas has a very strong rush defense, while aTm’s attack hinges on establishing a rushing game. Texas is a little better able to throw the ball, but they don’t want to put the game on the line in Colt McCoy’s hands. He’s shown some great poise in recent weeks, but you simply don’t want to overload a freshman QB.
This game is going to come down to who wins the battle of the line. Texas should have the edge in that matchup on both sides of the ball. They should be better able to establish a running game, and should be able to shut down aTm’s running game and pressure the QB. So a Texas win is pretty well established. But can they cover 13 points? I’m going to say no. I think aTm is going to play their hearts out today, but in the end they won’t be able to overcome the defense. Either way, I think they’ll score 17-20 points, and I see Texas with about 27-30. Plus, 13 points is a good “edge” number, so if it comes down to 13 exactly, it’s at least a no-decision.
Prediction: Texas A&M beats the spread Predicted Final Score: Texas 31, Texas A&M 20 Final Score: Texas A&M 12, Texas 7 Prediction: RIGHT
LSU’s going on the road to play a 1-loss Arkansas team (undefeated in the SEC), and they’re 2-point favorites. I guess that’s what happens when you have a top-10 rush defense, a top-10 scoring defense, and the #1 total yardage defense in the league. Not to mention that you’re on a 5-game winning streak and your team, which struggled offensively early in the season, has been lighting it up.
But they haven’t faced a rushing attack like Arkansas. Arkansas can throw several runners (including McFadden when he’s taking snaps as a QB) at you, and they’re racking up 230 rushing ypg. For LSU to win, they must force Arkansas to beat them through the air. Nobody has really been able to force Arkansas to do that all year, but I think LSU has the defense to at least force them to open the game plan a bit.
Arkansas, running the ball and controlling the clock, is going to keep the score down overall in this game. Their offense is going to try to grind the clock, limit the number of times LSU touches the ball, and keep their defense fresh. Even so, LSU is going to get some yards and points. I think the game is going to be decided in the 4th quarter, and LSU has been solid at the end of games, coming from behind to beat Tennessee. Arkansas has to be ahead by a big margin, in my opinion, to hold the game against the likes of Tennessee.
Prediction: LSU covers Predicted Final Score: LSU 24, Arkansas 20 Final Score: LSU 31, Arkansas 26 Prediction: RIGHT
Oregon (7-4, 4-4) @ Oregon State (7-4, 5-3) Vegas Says: Oregon State -3
Oregon State has been a strange team. They’ve been blown out by Boise St, Cal and UCLA. Yet they beat USC? This is a team that has certainly ridden their ups and downs all year. They’re not an exceptionally powerful team either offensively or defensively, but they’ve been doing enough to win 5 games against conference foes, including a great USC team and a decent Arizona squad. Where they appear to have trouble is against teams who can pressure the QB. Oregon State has given up nearly 30 sacks on the year, and when you get a QB to start hearing footsteps, you can throw an entire offense of kilter.
That doesn’t bode well for Oregon, though. Oregon hasn’t been able to create many sacks so far this year. If they’re going to beat you, it’s going to be with offensive fireworks. Oregon has a balanced, yardage-eating monster of an offense, gaining 5.2 ypc on the ground, and has been greater than 48% converting 3rd downs (an indication that they’ve been strong on 1st and 2nd down). This team can score points with the best of them. When they’re not turning the ball over, that is. Last week’s blowout loss to Arizona included 6 turnovers (4 INT, 2 fumbles lost).
If Oregon can keep from losing the turnover battle, or probably keep that margin down to 1, they should win this game. They simply have too much offensive firepower to not put up some serious points, and it’s not clear Oregon State has the weapons to match. I’m going to predict an Oregon win here, and hopefully they’ll manage to hang onto the ball this week.
Prediction: Oregon beats the spread Predicted Final Score: Oregon 31, Oregon State 27 Final Score: Oregon State 30, Oregon 28 Prediction: RIGHT
As you can see, I’ve been busy today. So I’m going to make a pick in tonights’ Boston College/Miami game, and will get to the other games of the weekend later…
#18 Boston College (9-2, 5-2) @ Miami-FL (5-6, 2-5) Vegas Says: Boston College -3.5
This is an odd one. You have Boston College, a team going through an absolutely great season, with only close losses to NC State and Wake Forest. Then, you’ve got Miami who has been an emotional basketcase, and has lost several blowout games. Somehow, though, the line started around 4.5 and has been trending downwards late to 3.5… It’s almost like someone out there really believes Miami will put it together in this one.
Statistically, BC is scoring a good 10 points more per game, and allowing 1 less. So I don’t see a reason to think they won’t be capable of covering, even factoring in Miami’s home field advantage. BC has only scored less than 20 in their two losses, and I don’t expect them to do it tonight. Miami has had trouble scoring more than 15 in their six losses, and I doubt they’ll do it today against BC’s defense.
I don’t know why these lines are trending downwards, but I think BC covers easily.
Prediction: Boston College covers Predicted Final Score: Boston College 27, Miami 13 Final Score: Miami 17, Boston College 14 Prediction: WRONG
UPDATE: Wow, the Miami defense played lights-out today. Boston College never got it going on offense. Truthfully, neither did Miami. Three interceptions, including one returned for a touchdown, really hurt them today. They really didn’t sustain long drives, but they had a couple of big deep shots that got them just enough to get the lead, and then the defense took over.
Happy Thanksgiving! I can’t believe I am sending you holiday greetings via the blogoshpere. Have fun shopping. That’s some effen pandemonium that I don’t want to deal with.
Well, in my previous bowl wrap-up, I had been working off bad information. The Alamo and Champs Sports bowls are alternating between picking the #4 and #5 teams in the Big Ten this year, and I thought this year was the Alamo picking #4 (thus suggesting Purdue would be going there). I was wrong, the Champs Sports Bowl gets the first pick of the two this year, and they’ve selected Purdue:
The Big Ten announced on Tuesday that Purdue will be making the conference’s first appearance in the Champs Sports Bowl on Dec. 29. Its opponent has yet to be determined.
The Boilers (8-4, 5-3 Big Ten) still have one game left on their schedule but regardless of the outcome of their game against Hawaii on Saturday, will finish in a tie for fourth in the conference.
Purdue failed to reach a bowl game last season after finishing 5-6, but with a win over Illinois on Nov. 11, the Boilers earned bowl eligibility this season.
Coach Joe Tiller has led the Boilers to nine bowl games in his 10 years at the helm of the Purdue program. Purdue is 7-6 all-time in its bowl game history.
“We appreciate the opportunity to go to the Champs Sports Bowl and play an outstanding team from the ACC,” Tiller said in a statement. “I am pleased for our players that they get this reward.”
Early thoughts are that we might face Maryland or Wake Forest, although with possible opponents of Boston College or Virginia Tech. A lot is up in the air at the moment, so it’s tough to tell. Either way, given the way Purdue has been playing, any bowl team will be a tough game. Maybe we’ll learn a bit more about this team on Saturday when they play at Hawaii, but this team could finish 10-4 or 8-6. I think Vegas will be expecting 8-6, so we might just have something to prove.
I’m sad. No more Big Ten football until the bowl games start. Yes, Purdue has a game against Hawaii next Saturday, but it doesn’t appear it will be televised, and it starts at 11 PM EST due to the time change. So it’s about time for a wrap-up.
First things first… Before the season, I made a bet on where Purdue would finish. There were a lot of people predicting Purdue to finish somewhere near the basement of the Big Ten. So I bet a couple bottles of homebrew against $10-15 worth of beer I can’t get in Georgia. The terms of the bet were based on whether Purdue would finish 5th or better in the conference, and with a tie for fourth, I won. Thank you Boilermakers! Mmm… Beer
1: Ohio State Buckeyes (12-0, 8-0) Projected Bowl: Nat’l Championship Game, Jan 8, Glendale, AZ
What can you say about the Buckeyes this year? Really, it all comes down to two words: Troy Smith. The odds-on favorite for the Heisman, Smith has been the key to the OSU offense all year long. A few years ago, Smith was known for his propensity to pull down the ball and run. He’s got great scrambling ability, and he’s added a strong, accurate arm to go with it. He’s known as a scrambler, but instead of pulling the ball down and running, he scrambles with his eyes downfield to make a big play. How do you defend a guy like this?
Troy Smith is a baaaaaad mutha!
Add to that, a competent running game, some very talented receivers, and a defense known for their ability to force turnovers. Michigan is the only team that had a chance to put up a fight, but even then, it took three turnovers to get close. I didn’t really believe in Ohio State until the Michigan game, but now, I think it’s almost time to just award them the trophy. All I can do as a Purdue fan is be thankful that Troy Smith is graduating this year, because I don’t want to face him next year!
T-2. Michigan Wolverines (11-1, 7-1) Projected Bowl: Rose Bowl, Jan 1, Pasadena, CA
Michigan never looked quite as dominating as Ohio State throughout the year, but I always believed that was by design. I think their show of offensive fireworks last night was vindication of that belief. Lloyd Carr is by nature a conservative coach, and Michigan did a great job of all year winning games utilizing great defense and a clock-eating running game. Yesterday showed what this offense is capable of, and I think we’ll see the same thing on Jan 1.
Michigan was tough this year, but they should terrorize opponents next year. They may lose some of their defensive prowess, but with Henne and Hart as seniors and another year of development for Arrington and Manningham, they’re going to light up some scoreboards. They should be favored over just about any opponent they’ll face in the Rose Bowl. It’s a damn shame that Lloyd Carr will probably get fired if he loses to Jim Tressel and Ohio State one more time…
T-2. Wisconsin Badgers (11-1, 7-1) Projected Bowl: Capitol One Bowl, Jan 1, Orlando, FL vs SEC #2
Wisconsin was picked in the pre-season to finish outside the top 25. They returned 2 offensive starters, most of their defense, and their head coach became the athletic director of Wisconsin, turning the reins of the team to his defensive coordinator, Bret Bielema. With all the turmoil, it’s astounding that they finished so well. On the back of freshman freight-train running back PJ Hill, and the senior leadership of John Stocco, they put together a heck of a season for their new coach.
However, they haven’t gotten a lot of media love. Wisconsin is one of the most unproven 1-loss teams in the country, which probably explains their #9 ranking, behind 2-loss LSU. While they haven’t had the “big win” to prove themselves, they’ve taken care of business in every game against a team not named Michigan. All but one of their wins were double-digit margins, and they played better than expected. Either way, with their season complete, they have only up to go from here, solidifying a top-ten slot. They have one chance to prove their worth, and that happens on January 1 against a tough SEC team (likely either Arkansas or Florida, whoever loses the SEC championship game, although it’s possible both teams go to BCS bowls). If they manage to win their bowl game, we may have three Big Ten teams finishing with top 5 rankings.
T-4. Penn State (8-4, 5-3) Projected Bowl: Outback Bowl, Jan 1, Tampa, FL vs. SEC
Penn State may be the best 4-loss team in the country. They’ve lost to #1 Ohio State, #3 Michigan, #6 Notre Dame, and #10 Wisconsin. Against competition like that, and the fact that they actually played well in 3 of those games, and they’re looking pretty decent.
Penn State has most of the defensive tools left over from last year. Their linebackers are the best in the Big Ten, their D-line is very strong, and their defensive backfield, while young, is very talented. The defense hasn’t been a problem. The offense replaced QB Michael Robinson with a talented Anthony Morelli, along with most of their offensive line, and the result was inconsistency. A young quarterback can do well if he’s given time to throw (i.e. USC this year), but if you put the pressure on, cracks appear. Penn State felt those cracks, but managed to make sure that only the teams they were supposed to lose to managed to do it. Penn State is a tough team, and may come up with a bowl win, depending who they face (hopefully, for their sake, not LSU).
T-4. Purdue (8-4, 5-3) Projected Bowl: Alamo Bowl, Dec 30, San Antonio, TX vs. Big 12 #4
Purdue is a team coming off their first losing season in 9 years, and clearly was looking at a rebuilding year. I believe between offense and defense, we were starting about 3 seniors. On offense, we returned quite a few starters, but most of the skill players were sophomores (or JuCo transfers). On defense, two stars left early for the NFL, and we found ourselves starting three true freshmen in the secondary, a few fresh/soph on the line, with our only mildly-veteran unit being the linebackers. Luckily, though, the schedule worked out that we started against 4 weak teams, and didn’t have to face Michigan or Ohio State, who would have cleaned our clocks.
Purdue isn’t a great team this year. We’ve only beaten one bowl-eligible team (although our win over Indiana is what kept them from bowl-eligibility). But we’ve beaten everyone on our schedule we were supposed to and we’ve beaten three teams we were underdogs against (Minnesota, Michigan State, and Illinois). Even better, we’ve been involved in several close games, and won all of them. While I hated to watch us get beaten by double digits against the teams we lost to, two of them are top-ten teams, Iowa played their best game of the season against us, and Penn State has now worked it’s way into the #25 BCS ranking.
Overall, I’m satisfied with the year. Next year is the big one. Yes, we’ll have Michigan and Ohio State back on the schedule, but Ohio State should lose offensive firepower. Many of the toughest teams in the Big Ten are graduating their senior QB’s, along with Notre Dame, who will likely fall off a bit without Brady Quinn. Last, we have a favorable schedule, getting some of our toughest opponents at home. Next year Purdue has a shot at winning the Big Ten if things fall right, and I can say I’d enjoy that very much.
T-6. Minnesota (6-6, 3-5) Projected Bowl: Champs Sports Bowl, Dec 29, Orlando, FL vs. ACC #4
Minnesota is a team that’s been alternating seasons in the middle of the Big Ten with the bottom of the conference, with occasional (unrealized) dreams of conference titles. This year was an odd one, because they lost their top two running backs, and two starting offensive linemen. They were expected to be sitting at the bottom of the conference, and yet managed to claw their way up to the middle, on the backs of Iowa, Michigan State, Indiana, and an uncharacteristic passing attack. It seems odd that the team who barely beat I-AA North Dakota State is going to a bowl game, but I’m sure they’ll take it.
Things may improve a few years down the road, when they move out of the Metrodome and into their own stadium on campus. But they’ve got a history of weak defense, and unless they figure out how to address that, they’ll be in trouble for a while.
T-6. Indiana (5-7, 3-5) Projected Bowl: Not Eligible
Indiana seems to be teetering on the edge of reviving their program. New coach Terry Hoeppner really has these kids beginning to believe in themselves. They make young mistakes, but they’re showing flashes of what they can be. With Coach Hep’s medical troubles this year, I think all of us were pulling for them. I really didn’t want to see them fighting for bowl eligibility against Purdue, because I knew we’d be the ones that had to dash those dreams. Indiana has a lot of young talent, and when they get it together, they might climb out of the conference cellar.
T-8. Iowa (6-6, 2-6) Projected Bowl: Insight Bowl, Dec 29, Phoenix, AZ vs. Big 12 #6
What happened to Iowa? Expected in the preseason to fight for the Big Ten title, they’ve melted down completely. How? Well, some defensive injuries played a big part. Beyond that, Iowa graduated their top wide receivers. While Drew Tate is a heck of a quarterback, I think he found himself in situations where he was trying to do too much, forcing the game because he wasn’t on the same page as his receivers. The result? Interceptions. 12 by Tate himself, and another 6 thrown in by his backups when he was injured. When you’re turning the ball over, giving your opponent good field position, you’re in trouble.
This team is looking a lot like Purdue 2005, a team with big expectations and bad results. There’s plenty of talent, but things just fell apart. Better luck next year, and with Kirk Ferentz coaching, I’m sure there will be better results…
T-8. Northwestern (4-8, 2-6) Projected Bowl: Not Eligible
Northwestern, like Iowa, was one of those teams everyone hoped would do well. Their head coach, Randy Walker, unexpectedly passed away shortly before the season. This came on top of the graduation of their starting QB, Brett Basanez, and of their star linebacker, Tim McGarigle. Assistant coach Pat Fitzgerald took over on short notice, and the team was forced to deal with a lot in a very short time.
Over the year, they rotated through several quarterbacks, eventually settling on the most pass-oriented of the bunch, CJ Bacher. Once they got him settled, they started to perform, with late-season wins over Iowa and Illinois. Hopefully they’ll have some momentum heading into 2007, as the team finally seemed to come together at the end of the year, and most of those players will be coming back.
T-10: Michigan State (4-8, 1-7) Projected Bowl: Not eligible
For many of the teams at the bottom of the Big Ten, you look at the good signs that they may be headed upwards. This team has been heading down for several years, and this year was the worst. It’s bad news when you announce mid-season that your coach is getting fired, it’s even worse when there are rumors circulating that the players were happy about it.
After this year, they lose QB Drew Stanton, who is talented, if inconsistent. Bringing in a new coaching staff may be just what they need, but then again, they’ve been through several new coaching staffs over the last few years, and we see where they are now. Michigan is a good recruiting state, so if they get things back on track, they can get back quickly. But another bad coach might put them too far behind, that it will take an overhaul of the entire program to recover from.
T-10. Illinois (2-10, 2-6) Projected Bowl: Not eligible
Illinois brought in coach Ron Zook from Florida, and immediately, as is known for Zook, their recruiting rankings shot sky-high. I don’t know if he’s offering kids hookers and blow, but he manages to attract some pretty talented players. If he had a clue how to coach them on game day, he might actually be successful!
Seriously, with the talent Illinois is bringing in, I definitely expect them to start to recover. This year, they’re looking like the best 2-win team in the nation. Even with Zook as their coach, they’ll still pull themselves out of the conference basement. But with Zook as their head coach, they’ll never be great. Either way, there is some excitement brewing with QB Juice Williams, and they just might find a way to be well above this spot over the next two years.
[...] Brad Warbiany posts his wrap-up of the 2006 Big Ten Season and this summary of the Buckeyes that I can’t disagree with at all: What can you say about the Buckeyes this year? Really, it all comes down to two words: Troy Smith. The odds-on favorite for the Heisman, Smith has been the key to the OSU offense all year long. A few years ago, Smith was known for his propensity to pull down the ball and run. He’s got great scrambling ability, and he’s added a strong, accurate arm to go with it. He’s known as a scrambler, but instead of pulling the ball down and running, he scrambles with his eyes downfield to make a big play. How do you defend a guy like this? [...]
[...] Posts Purdue Selected for Champs Sports Bowl Exciting News at The Liberty Papers Happy Anniversary NNNNNNOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!! LazyDogs Big Ten Wrap-Up 2006 NCAA Football Predictions — Week 12 Remember High School? BCS Busting Milton Friedman Dies at 94 Good Boilers vs. Bad Boilers Ay Caramba! Movie Review— Stranger Than Fiction Upset Day! 2006 NCAA Football Predictions — Week 11 part 2 [...]
wow. D-A-N-G-E-R-O-U-S situation averted. Phew!
If I had a nickel for every time that I was next to someone with a statue and felt uneasy about it…
Comment by Wilson — December 12, 2006 @ 2:33 pm
[...] Like Brad, I feel much, much safer now that the threat of Heisman-carrying terrorists is being taken seriously. [...]
Pingback by Below The Beltway » Blog Archive » Homeland Security Insanity — December 12, 2006 @ 3:40 pm
Brad,
Maybe not. The Columbus Dispatch has a different story:
Maybe not. From the Columbus Dispatch:
Ohio State quarterback Troy Smith returned to Columbus today without his Heisman Trophy, a move designed to ensure the award arrives in one piece, and not a conspiracy by Wolverine-loving airport security, as some have suggested.
The Associated Press reported that Smith was not allowed to take his trophy on the plane. In fact, Smith didn’t even take the 25-pound bronze statue to the airport.
Smith had his trophy packed up and shipped before he went to the airport, a school spokesman said.
http://www.columbusdispatch.com/football/football.php?story=232891
Comment by Doug Mataconis — December 12, 2006 @ 4:29 pm
I wondered if the TSA still existed. I sent an email in August 06 to try to clarify how I could put my medication in my checked bag. Didn’t want to put my dozen ninty day bottles in luggage. I have never received an answer.
Comment by VRB — December 12, 2006 @ 6:02 pm