The Unrepentant Individual

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#11 Notre Dame (6-1) @ Navy (5-2)
Vegas Says: Notre Dame -13.5

Notre Dame has proven all year that they’re very vulnerable to a strong passing attack. Their secondary isn’t all that good, and any team that can put the ball in the air can hurt them. This is even true of Purdue, who may only have scored 21 points on the Irish, yet put up 400 passing yards. But, against Navy, this doesn’t appear to be a problem. Navy runs over 300 yards/game, and passes only for about 50. Notre Dame’s run defense isn’t Michigan’s, by any means, but if they can stack the box against Navy, they should be able to keep them contained. Navy’s defense is decent, but not great, and they’re giving up over 200 ypg in the air, where Brady Quinn likes to beat you. They’ve given up points to everyone but Stanford, and today is unlikely to be any different.

With a two-TD line, and my deep hatred of Notre Dame, it’s tough to pull the trigger on this one. But I think they win this handily.

Prediction: Notre Dame covers
Predicted Final Score: Notre Dame 38, Navy 20
Final Score: Notre Dame 38, Navy 14
Prediction: RIGHT

Michigan State (4-4, 1-3) @ Indiana (4-4, 2-2)
Vegas Says: MSU -7

It’s gut-check time. Michigan State came up with a record comeback last week against Northwestern, so it’s time to figure out whether they played their typical fluky post-meltdown awesome performance, or whether they’ve righted the ship and will start playing with confidence again. And it’s a crucial win for both teams, as it gets them one-win away from bowl eligibility. Indiana has road games against Minnesota and Purdue, and a sure-loss home game at Michigan, so they need this win to have a shot at a bowl. Michigan State’s path is a bit easier, with home games against Purdue and Minnesota, and a road game at Penn State, but if they play today without confidence, every one of those teams can have their number.

So this is a game that can’t be analyzed very well by stats. MSU is consistently inconsistent, led by a quarterback who is nearly unstoppable when he’s playing well, and looks like a freshman otherwise. Indiana is a young team that has talent but little experience, who nobody expected to win 4 games by now, and shocked the world by coming from behind to beat Iowa. I think MSU is going to stumble a bit out of the gates, but take over this game early in the 2nd quarter to win by a good margin.

Prediction: Michigan State covers
Predicted Final Score: MSU 37, Indiana 24
Final Score: Indiana 46, MSU 21
Prediction: WRONG

Miami U (5-2, 2-1) @ Georgia Tech (5-2, 3-1)
Vegas Says: Georgia Tech -5

You know, this is a game Georgia Tech should dominate. Miami has a stiff run defense, but Georgia Tech has Calvin Johnson, who is probably the best receiver in the country. Georgia Tech also has a tough defense, and Miami’s offense hasn’t looked very good when playing anyone with a pulse. But something tells me that Georgia Tech is going to respond to a tough run defense by trying to run the ball, and may (as usual) forget that they’ve got an all-world WR who makes cornerbacks look like girl scouts. I can only hope that doesn’t happen, and they let Johnson show why he’s so highly praised. I also hope GT no players get beaten, shot, or maimed by the thugs of “da U”…

Prediction: Georgia Tech covers
Predicted Final Score: GT 21, Miami 14
Final Score: Georgia Tech 30, Miami 23
Prediction: RIGHT

Penn State (5-3, 3-2) @ Purdue (5-3, 2-2)
Vegas Says: Penn State -3

These two teams are 5-3, and before the season, both would probably have been expected to be 5-3 right now. PSU has lost to three top-10 teams, and Purdue has lost to a top-10 team and two other strong Big Ten teams. But what really is worth looking at is their wins. Neither team has dominated all but the weakest opponents. Each team is constantly leaving doubts as to whether they’re really any good. Apparently Purdue has more doubts, though, as they’re 3-point dogs to Penn State at home.

The game plan for Purdue is simple. Hold the run enough to force Morelli to beat you in the air, hopefully get pressure on him, and make sure that you score when you’re in the red zone. Penn State’s game plan is also simple. You know Purdue’s got a better offense, so you try to control the game on the ground, and hope that your strong defense can limit their point production, particularly in the red zone where Purdue has had problems.

A lot can affect this game, and a quick weather report shows a Wind Advisory for northwest Indiana… Not good for the Purdue air attack. However, it does mean that if Purdue is able to hold Penn State’s ground game, they should have a chance, as Morelli is no better than Painter throwing the ball in gale-force winds. The game for Purdue, then, is going to come down to throwing the ball enough to the WR corps to keep Penn State’s linebackers from selling out on the run, and hoping the defense holds up. Not an easy thing to do, but after the way they performed against Wisconsin last week, I think they can handle it.

Prediction: Purdue beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Purdue 24, PSU 20
Final Score: Penn State 12, Purdue 0
Prediction: WRONG (and ugh! shut out at home?)

GAME OF THE WEEK

#8 Tennessee (6-1, 2-1) @ South Carolina (5-2, 3-2)
Vegas Says: Tennessee -3.5

Why this is the game of the week, I’m not quite sure. I worry this will be about as exciting as last week’s game of the week, where Clemson routed Georgia Tech (a game where GT inexplicably didn’t throw to Johnson). Tennessee is coming off one of their worst offensive performances of the year, but it was following a bye week, and perhaps they just came out flat. South Carolina appears to have trouble scoring against decent defenses this year, and Tennessee just happens to have a great one.

I think the oddsmakers are relying on Steve Spurrier’s reputation for beating Tennessee in this one, but I think that’s a bad decision. Spurrier wears a headset, he’s not throwing passes or blocking. Tennessee controls this one, start to finish.

Prediction: Tennessee covers
Predicted Final Score: Tennessee 31, South Carolina 17
Final Score: Tennessee 31, South Carolina 24
Prediction: RIGHT

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Michigan State (3-4, 0-3) @ Northwestern (2-5, 0-3)
Vegas Says: MSU -7.5

Michigan State started the season flying high, as usual. But at the beginning of the fourth quarter of the Notre Dame game, something happened. And they haven’t won a game since. Northwestern wasn’t expected to be very good this year, after losing their star QB, the linebacker who lead their defense, and after the sudden death of their head coach. Unfortunately, they’ve underachieved those low expectations. Only one team can lose this game, although I’m sure both will try. But I have to think that this is going to be one of those games based on the pure power of the teams. 3 of MSU’s last four losses have been to top ten teams, and while they’ve been blowouts, those teams would blow out just about anybody. Northwestern’s last three losses have also been blowouts, but against much worse competition.

MSU finally gets back on track, with Stanton getting his rhythm back and the MSU defense shutting down Northwestern’s offense in a way they couldn’t against Michigan or OSU.

Prediction: Michigan State covers
Predicted Final Score: MSU 33, Northwestern 13
Final Score: MSU 41, NW 38
Prediction: Wrong
Thoughts: Screw you, MSU. Why didn’t you show up for the first half?

UCLA (4-2) @ #10 Notre Dame (5-1)
Vegas Says: Notre Dame -13

Everyone knows who Notre Dame is, because they got wall-to-wall media coverage all summer. Tom Zbikowski will knock you out, Jeff Samardzija will hit any nasty pitch you throw, Brady Quinn is the heir-apparent for the Heisman, and St. Weis is more beloved by his fans than Ditka. UCLA, on the other hand, has been overshadowed by the west coast’s Notre Dame, the University of Spoiled Children Southern California. The only reason anyone has paid attention to UCLA is to note that their starting QB was injured two weeks ago, and deer-in-the-headlights replacement Pat Cowan is getting his trial by fire, following his first start on the road against Oregon by traveling for his second at Notre Dame.

But there’s something that most people have missed about UCLA. They’ve got a defense! Such things are rare on the west coast, but they’re allowing a mere 252 yards a game, and that’s after factoring in the 400+ they let Oregon rack up. And yet they only lost by 10 and racked up 20 on Oregon, a team with a better offense and defense than Notre Dame. I don’t think UCLA is going to win this game on the road, but I think they’ll do well enough to beat the 13.

Prediction: UCLA beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Notre Dame 28, UCLA 20
Final Score: Notre Dame 20, UCLA 17
Prediction: Right
Thoughts: ND is still suspect. A last-minute TD drive to save the win shouldn’t be necessary at home against UCLA.

Iowa (5-2, 2-2) @ #2 Michigan (7-0, 4-0)
Vegas Says: Michigan -13

The world let out a collective “WTF?!” last weekend, when Iowa went down in a road upset at Indiana. All anyone can think is that Iowa was looking forward to this game, and treated Indiana like a bye week. Well, now they’re not just fighting to play Michigan tough, they’re fighting for respect. Unfortunately, I don’t think Michigan is ready to give them any. Michigan has an easy three weeks after this game to their showdown with OSU, so they’ve got no reason to look past this game. Iowa, when they’re playing well, can run with just about anybody, but I think Michigan is a cut above. Iowa needs to focus on one thing today, and that’s making sure that Drew Tate survives the game a bit better than Morelli and Clark of PSU, their #1 and #2 QB who were both knocked out of the game. Michigan is going to shut down Iowa’s running game, and although Drew Tate is a pretty clutch QB, he doesn’t have the firepower at WR to put up the scores. Michigan is without Mario Manningham, but Iowa’s injury-depleted defense won’t put up as much of a fight as Wisconsin.

If this line were 15, I might take Iowa to beat it. I think this is a 14-point game, maybe a bit more, but certainly not much less. At 13, though, I think it’s a pretty safe pick.

Prediction: Michigan covers
Predicted Final Score: Michigan 34, Iowa 17
Final Score: Michigan 20, Iowa 6
Prediction: Right

#22 Boston College (5-1, 2-1) @ Florida State (4-2, 2-2)
Vegas Says: Florida State -7

BC has defeated a #12 ranked Clemson team, a decent Virginia Tech team, and fell to a last-minute hail mary to NC State. Florida State beat a Miami team that has since shown to be not all that good, with a loss to that same Clemson team and to the same NC State team. Florida State is at home, and they’re not a bad team. But something has been true in all of their games against quality opponents: they have no offense. BC is questionable, with their starting QB potentially out (it’s a game-time decision at this point) with an ankle/foot injury. If he doesn’t play, what does that mean for the team? If he plays, he barely practiced all week, so how effective will he be? BC has played well this year, but nobody knows just how much depth they have.

Either way, I’m going to assume an FSU win, but I think they’re not going to have the offensive firepower to make it a big win. If the BC QB doesn’t play, and his backup is in, my only worry would be FSU scoring defensive touchdowns.

Prediction: Boston College beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Florida State 23, Boston College 20
Final Score: Boston College 24, FSU 19
Prediction: RIGHT

#19 Rutgers (6-0, 1-0) @ Pittsburgh (6-1, 2-0)
Vegas Says: Pittsburgh -6.5

This is a very big game for Rutgers. For Rutgers to make a legitimate play at greatness this year, it’s a must win. They’ve got two tough games coming up with Louisville & WVU, and when you have those two left on your schedule, you can’t let Pittsburgh get by you. Pittsburgh is in the same boat, with their only loss being an out-of-conference game against pre-meltdown Michigan State. They also have Louisville & WVU left on their schedule, and can’t let Rutgers by them. So this is a HUGE game for both teams.

So it comes down to matchups. Rutgers has the better defense. Pitt appears to have more success in the air on the ground, and Rutgers has only given up 141 ypg in the air. Take that stat with rememberance that Rutgers has blown out most of their opponents, so opponents have been going to the air sooner and more than a typical game. That’s stout. Rutgers has a decent offense, but not great. They make most of their yards on the ground, which is a good matchup for Pitt, who gives up 114 ypg on the ground. But I see Rutgers winning this game by controlling the ball on the ground, and being a thorn in the side of the Pitt passing game.

Prediction: Rutgers beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Rutgers 23, Pitt 17
Final Score: Rutgers 20, Pitt 10
Prediction: RIGHT

Wisconsin (6-1, 3-1) @ Purdue (5-2, 2-1)
Vegas Says: Wisconsin -6.5

Fan, of course, is short for fanatic. “A person marked or motivated by an extreme, unreasoning enthusiasm, as for a cause.” Yep, that pretty much sums me up. This game really worries me, because unlike many fans, I can’t completely turn off my brain. My brain tells me Wisconsin covers this spread. They’ve got weapons on offense, an experienced, senior QB, and a superb defense. They’ll have consistency where Purdue, a young team, may falter. And they’ve got an offensive line where the smallest guy is 6′6″, 313 lbs! They just look good this year. My heart, on the other hand, gives me all the reasons why Purdue will beat the spread (and perhaps win), that we’ve got more weapons on offense, our defense is coming off a great game, and that Wisconsin hasn’t beaten anyone of note (although they’ve dispatched those cupcakes with authority). I say Purdue’s coming back to play at home, we’ve got the emotional desire to get revenge for “The Fumble”, and we’re just waiting for the game where it all comes together, and this might be it!

Simply put, I can’t predict this game. Normally I can get my head and my heart on the same page. I can’t do that today. So I’m going to watch the game at noon on ESPN, and just hope that my heart wins out. Believe, baby, believe!

Prediction: None offered this week.
Final Score: Wisconsin 24, Purdue 3
Thoughts: 3? 3?! An offense averaging > 30 pts/game, and all you can come up with is 3?! Way to squander a great defensive game, guys!

GAME OF THE WEEK

#13 Georgia Tech (5-1, 3-0) @ #12 Clemson (6-1, 3-1)
Vegas Says: Clemson -7

The traditional ACC powerhouses are failing this year, and these two teams are making a good run at taking their place. GT lost their first game of the season against #10 Notre Dame, and Clemson lost a nailbiter against #22 Boston College. Both teams have looked impressive at times, with Clemson defeating Florida State and Wake Forest, and Georgia Tech defeating Virginia Tech and Maryland. Both teams have balanced offenses, with Clemson looking more explosive against worse competition, but with Georgia Tech having the big threat of all-world WR Calvin Johnson. Both teams have strong defenses, Georgia Tech with a stifling run defense, and Clemson with a very balanced run/pass defense (but again, against worse competition).

This game comes down to consistency versus big plays. Clemson is putting up 250 rushing yards per game, GT is allowing 71. I don’t think Clemson can rely on the rush. Clemson has been very good statistically on defense, but they haven’t had a guy like Calvin Johnson to defend. Clemson is strong on third down, and is very efficient passing the ball. Georgia Tech isn’t very consistent, but has explosive ability when it counts.

I think the final is going to show one thing. Clemson’s defense is too good to give up enough big plays to turn the tide, and their offense is solid enough to put up the points when it’s necessary. Georgia Tech will put up some yards, but faltering in the red zone will limit their TD production. Clemson will drive enough to play well in the field position battle, and will use that to overcome GT’s defense on short fields after Reggie Ball has a three-and-out here or there.

Prediction: Clemson covers
Predicted Final Score: Clemson 24, Georgia Tech 13
Final Score: Clemson 31, GT 7
Prediction: RIGHT

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Minnesota (2-4) @ #25 Wisconsin (5-1)
Vegas Says: Wisconsin -8

Ahh, a rivalry game. The battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe. There’s a lot of emotion riding on this game, and that usually means you can throw out the predictions. Not in this one, though, because Wisconsin is playing tremendous defense, the game is at Wisconsin, and Minnesota is in a bit of a tailspin. My only worry is that because this game is going to be played entirely on the ground, it might be over too quickly, runs burning up the clock, for the score to get large enough for Wisconsin to cover their 8. I’m guessing with an over/under of 50, it might be good to take the under. And this game will probably barely last 3 hours, with the clock running, unless Minnesota gets down big and has to go to the air.

Prediction: Wisconsin covers
Predicted Final Score: Wisconsin 27, Minnesota 17
Final Score: Wisconsin 48, Minnesota 12
Prediction: RIGHT

#24 Rutgers (5-0) @ Navy (5-1)
Vegas Says: Navy -2.5

Wow, a tough one. We’ve got the #1 rushing offense in the nation (Navy) up against the #5 scoring defense in the nation. Rutgers’ offense appears to be better than Navy’s D, but then, Navy has played much tougher competition, so the stats might be a bit skewed. If Minny/Wisky barely lasts 3 hours, the way these teams run, the game will be over even quicker. Really, when it comes down to it, I think Rutgers is a bit more complete of a team. This one is going to be close, but I’m going to have to lean their way.

Prediction: Rutgers beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Rutgers 24, Navy 21
Final Score: Rutgers 34, Navy 0
Prediction: RIGHT

UCLA (4-1) @ #18 Oregon (4-1)
Vegas Says: Oregon -9

Both teams have an offense. UCLA has a defense. But UCLA’s offense will be without starting QB Ben Olsen, and replacement Patrick Cowan will be making his first start against a ranked team on the road. I think UCLA has a defense to contain Oregon, and keep this close. But Cowan’s rookie mistakes change the equation for the worse. Between a stalled drive here or there, potential turnovers, and the field position that Oregon will get as a result, I think they take this one.

Prediction: Oregon covers
Predicted Final Score: Oregon 31, UCLA 20
Final Score: Oregon 30, UCLA 20
Prediction: RIGHT

#4 Michigan (6-0) @ Penn State (4-2)
Vegas says: Michigan -6

-6?! Even without Manningham, I don’t see it. Michigan, without Manningham and against the Penn State defense, might have some trouble scoring. They’ll need to establish Mike Hart running the football, get the tight ends into the receiving game to draw off the linebackers, and then hope that Steve Breaston and Adrian Arrington can make up for Manningham’s lack of presence. But we all know that Michigan has so much talent that they can score at least a few points. The question is, can Penn State score at all on Michigan’s defense? Michigan can load the box to stop Tony Hunt and pressure Anthony Morelli, and that’s going to be the game. Expect at least one defensive score by UM, and great field position for the UM offense all day long. This game isn’t going to be as exciting as most people hope.

Prediction: Michigan covers
Predicted Final Score: Michigan 31, Penn State 13
Final Score: Michigan 17, Penn State 10
Prediction: RIGHT

#2 Florida (6-0) @ #11 Auburn (5-1)
Vegas Says: Florida -2

Wow… This is a big game. My pessimistic side says that Florida can’t keep this up, and that Auburn won’t lose twice in a row at home. But there’s just this sense that this is a special year for Florida. They’ve got a ridiculous defense, and some surprising poise and leadership on offense. Auburn’s offense, on the other hand, has been more than slightly underwhelming. My head tells me that picking Florida is a tad dangerous. Especially against an Auburn team that is well-coached and full of talent. But I think between Florida slowing down Kenny Irons, and their defensive proclivity towards big interceptions, they’ll chalk up another W and get one landmine closer to a national championship appearance.

Prediction: Florida covers
Predicted Final Score: Florida 20, Auburn 13
Final Score: Auburn 27, Florida 17
Prediction: WRONG

Purdue (4-2) @ Northwestern (2-4)
Vegas Says: Purdue -7

Oh, this one worries me. Not that it should, because I think Purdue is more than 7 points better than Northwestern this year. This is an away game, but when it comes to Northwestern, the stadium is rarely bad for a visitor. Northwestern is stuck in the middle of a QB controversy, and their defense is not anywhere near good. On paper, Purdue wins this game. Purdue has a tendency to make things difficult, especially against Northwestern the last few years. But I just think we’ll be too much for them. We racked up 450 yards of offense on Iowa’s defense, and 490 on Notre Dame. We should be over 500 against Northwestern, and I think this time we’ll get the points to go with it. Northwestern should be expected to have a better-than-average day against the Purdue defense, but considering how bad their average is, that doesn’t worry me too much.

I think this game is a big day for Purdue. They need to make a statement after that blowout against Iowa, they need a tune-up before their homestand against Wisconsin and Penn State, and Northwestern on the road is a perfect team to do it. Purdue needs to come out with an attitude, and prove that they can play better football than they did against Iowa. This week, they finally do it.

Prediction: Purdue covers
Predicted Final Score: Purdue 41, Northwestern 24
Final Score: Purdue 31, Northwestern 20
Prediction: RIGHT

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So, that’s 5 favorites, 1 dog. Not exactly balanced picks, but I think these teams are capable of doing it this week.

UPDATE:That puts me at 5-1 against the spread this week, 5-1 straight up. A very nice performance, leaving me 21-16 against the spread this season, and 29-8 straight up. I might not be all that bad at this!

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Indiana (2-3) @ Illinois (2-3):
Vegas Says: Illinois -8.5

The worst team in the Big Ten might be decided tomorrow (although Northwestern may fight for that “honor”), in the Basement Bowl of the Big Ten. I’d say these teams were playing like mid-level MAC teams, but that would be a colossal insult to a fine mid-major conference like the MAC. Both teams suck. Indiana is facing 3 straight losses, after beating Western Michigan and squeaking by Ball State. Illinois had a freak win over Michigan State last week, after losing three following their opening win against Eastern Illinois. Illinois seems to actually be getting better each week, though, and Indiana seems to be getting worse. This game, I think Illinois will be expecting their luck to continue, behind the dual-threat of freshman QB Juice Williams. Indiana, likewise, has benched their starting QB for dual-threat freshman QB Kellen Lewis, who’s having a much tougher time than Williams.

This game, I think Lewis finally puts it together, gets the ball to star WR James Hardy, and Indiana takes this one.

Prediction: Indiana beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Indiana 27, Illinois 23
Final Score: Indiana 34, Illinois 32
Prediction: RIGHT

Penn State (3-2) @ Minnesota (2-3):
Vegas Says: Penn State -3

Here we’re looking at two programs fighting to see where in the middle of the Big Ten pack they’ll end up. Neither team looks all that good, but both have too much talent to be where Illinois or Indiana sits. And this may be a must-win game for either team, as they won’t face much easy competition this year. There’s a lot riding on this game, and both teams know it. A lot of people have this as their upset pick of the week.

But I just don’t see it. For Minnesota to thrive, they need to be successful running the ball. You’re not going to establish the run against Penn State and their incredible linebackers unless you can be balanced, and Minnesota can’t be balanced. Penn State has been inconsistent on offense, but playing a defense like Minnesota is a sure way to solve some offensive issues. Penn State dominates this game.

Prediction: Penn State covers
Predicted Final Score: Penn State 24, Minnesota 16
Final Score: Penn State 28, Minnesota 27 OT
Prediction: WRONG

#13 Tennessee (4-1) @ #10 Georgia (5-0):
Vegas Says: Tennessee -2.5

I said last week that Purdue was considered the worst 4-0 team in the country. Georgia is one of the worst 5-0 teams in the country. They have a very strong defense, but have had offensive woes all year. Joe Tereshinski III was named the QB starter at the beginning of the season, but soon got injured. The fans got to see their chosen QB (Matt Stafford), and quickly started clamoring for Joe T to come back. Well, he’s finally back from the injury, facing one of the best defenses he’ll see all year. Tennessee is a team that is still shooting to gain back some of the respect they lost after last year’s debacle of a season. They dominated Cal, barely beat a mediocre Air Force team, lost a very tight game to Florida, and then blew the doors off patsies Marshall and Memphis.

This game comes down to a “prove it” message to both teams. Tennessee must prove that they’re the second-best team in the SEC East, behind Florida. Georgia must prove that they can play offense. And it’ll all be played out in a night game in Athens. I think this might be a decent game for a half, maybe into 3 quarters, but I just don’t Georgia keeping their offensive performance consistent enough to get it done. Especially when their starting QB hasn’t played a snap for nearly 4 games. Tennessee has this one.

Prediction: Tennessee covers
Predicted Final Score: Tennessee 31, Georgia 17
Final Score: Tennessee 51, Georgia 33
Prediction: RIGHT

#7 Texas (4-1) @ #14 Oklahoma (3-1):
Vegas Says: Texas -4

Ahh, rivalry games. Gotta love it. Any college football rivalry that has its own beer is definitely worth its salt. There’s some history here too, as Mack Brown was unable to beat Bob Stoops until he had all-world QB Vince Young on his team. Well, this year he’s got a freshman, Colt McCoy, who has nothing on Vince. But, that’s not a huge issue, as this is going to be a serious Big 12 slugfest. I’d call it three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust, but with these defenses, it’s going to be run-run-incomplete pass-punt, played out over and over.

I think Texas is going to win this game, but it’s not going to be easy. Oklahoma has arguably the nation’s best college football player, Adrian Peterson, carrying the ball. And that’s all they’ve got. Texas has the more balanced offense, but a freshman QB who might not quite be ready for the atmosphere he’s walking into. I think when the dust settles, Texas is two-dimensional on offense, and has the best defense Oklahoma has seen all year. Unless Mack Brown chokes, Texas will take it.

Prediction: Texas covers
Predicted Final Score: Texas 20, Oklahoma 13
Final Score: Texas 28, Oklahoma 10
Prediction: RIGHT

#9 LSU (4-1) @ #5 Florida (5-0):
Vegas Says: Florida -1

I’ve said before that home field advantage counts for 3 points, so the bookies are leaning towards LSU being a better team. Florida has been inconsistent on offense, LSU has blown the doors off everyone except Auburn, and could only put 3 points on the Auburn defense. The over/under on this game is 40.5 points, I suggest you take the under.

There’s one X factor going on, and that’s the injury to Florida RB DeShawn Wynn. Wynn not playing is the difference maker tomorrow. LSU won’t dominate on offense, but they’ve got an absolutely incredible defense, and should be able to slow down Florida’s passing attack. LSU takes it.

Prediction: LSU beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: LSU 13, Florida 10
Final Score: Florida 23, LSU 10
Prediction: WRONG

Purdue (4-1) @ #19 Iowa (4-1):
Vegas Says: Iowa -11

What is there to say about this game? Iowa’s offense has looked downright unimpressive this year, partly due to QB Drew Tate’s strained abdominal muscle, which has inhibited his throwing muscle. Of course, they’re going against Purdue’s defense, which has looked bad all year. Purdue’s offense has looked great all year, and for a few small errors, would have given the Irish a serious run for their money last Saturday. But they’re up against Iowa’s defense, by far the best D they’ve played all year.

This game comes down to matchups. Purdue’s secondary has been ailing, but Iowa lost two star WR’s to graduation last year, which should take a little pressure off. They’ll focus on RB Albert Young and TE Scott Chandler, who are the heart of the Iowa offense. That relies on Purdue’s linebackers having a decent day, but they’re one of the strongest parts of our defense. Opposite we have Iowa’s defense, who lost two star LB’s to graduation, and has been battling injury in the defensive backfield. Purdue’s strength is our passing game and our stable of game-breaking receivers, attacking the weak part of the Iowa D. We should see a lot of passes to TE Dustin Keller, a 6′5″, 4.5, athletic freak of nature who will mostly face linebacker coverage all game.

I can’t tell you whether Purdue will win this game, and as usual, there’s too much emotion for me to make a prediction anyway. I really think we match up well against Iowa, so I’ll all but guarantee we beat this spread.

Prediction: Purdue beats the spread
Final Score: Iowa 47, Purdue 17
Prediction: WRONG, and I don’t want to talk about it

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3-3 Against the spread this week, and 4-1 straight up. Giving me a total year of 16-15 against the spread, and 24-7 straight up.

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Wisconsin (3-1) @ Indiana (2-2):
Vegas Says: Wisconsin -11

Something’s wrong here. Wisconsin is only 11 point favorites? Granted, they put up a whopping 13 points last weekend on offense, and yes, their offense is replacing pretty much everyone. But that 13 was scored against the best defense in the Big Ten, and they’ve been scoring in their other games. Even so, let’s say they only score 13 (unlikely, against IU’s defense). Can IU score even 3 on the Wisky D to beat the spread? It’s questionable, since they only put up 7 on UConn. IU won’t be able to put up points on Wisconsin, and Wisconsin will run right through IU’s D. This game should be settled by halftime.

Prediction: Wisconsin Covers
Predicted Final Score: Wisconsin 31, Indiana 13
Final Score: Wisconsin 52, Indiana 17
Prediction: RIGHT

Kansas St (3-1) @ Baylor (1-3):
Vegas Says: Kansas St -1.5

This is an odd one. How can a 3-1 team be only a 1.5 point favorite over a 1-3 team. Something doesn’t quite add up when you see a line like that. So I have to look at these teams a little closer. K-State squeaked by a decent Illinois State team, then blew out two doormats. They then got stomped by #8 Louisville, but that’s to be expected. Baylor, on the other hand, was expected to be decent this year, but is sitting at 1-3. Yet they’ve played decent in their losses to TCU, Wash St, and Army. So I’ll have to look at the stats. Baylor appears to be a pure air attack, averaging only 30 yards per game on the ground. K-State is much more balanced. On defense, both teams appear to be putting up decent totals, but given the level of competition Baylor has faced, I have to give the edge to Baylor. In this game, I think Baylor is going to go to the air early and often. If they can get an early edge, they might be able to take this one over. But I think K-State is expecting that, and their pass defense has been decent. I frankly don’t see a lot of scoring here all day. That being said, the team that passes more has the chance for big plays, and I have to give the edge to Baylor.

Prediction: Baylor beats the spread
Predicted final score: Baylor 13, Kansas State 10
Final Score: Baylor 17, K-State 3
Prediction: RIGHT

Northern Illinois (2-2) @ Ball State (1-3):
Vegas Says: NIU -6.5

Here we see a team with a blazing talent in Garrett Wolfe, who put up gaudy numbers against the defense of Ohio State, against a MAC up-and-comer who has respectable losses against two Big Ten teams. NIU has a ridiculous offense and a porous defense, while Ball State has a good offense and a worse defense. It’s tough to judge, of course, as Ball State faced a prolific Purdue offense that put up astonishing numbers, and NIU faced a prolific Ohio State offense that put up astonishing numbers in the first quarter. But in this case, I look at the question of whether anyone on the Ball State defense can even contain Garrett Wolfe. And the answer is no. I don’t think we’ll see much defense from either team, but with the rushing attack of NIU, I do think we’ll see a lower-than-expected score.

Prediction: Northern Illinois covers
Predicted final score: Northern Illinois 24, Ball State 17
Final Score: NIU 40, BSU 28
Prediction: RIGHT

#6 Michigan (4-0) @ Minnesota (2-2):
Vegas Says: Michigan -10

Here’s one of those games that might be based on last year’s outcome. Minnesota edged by Michigan in a close, hard-fought game at the Big House. The question is whether they can do it again? Well, I’m here to tell you, the answer is an emphatic no. Minnesota gains its numbers on the ground, and Michigan has the best rushing defense in the Big Ten. Minnesota doesn’t play well when forced to go to the air, and Michigan has the best defensive backfield in the Big Ten. And Minnesota’s defense? Not so good. About the only chance that Minnesota has of beating this spread is if Michigan doesn’t throw the ball. But Michigan is looking for national mindshare, so a blowout is in their interest here. This one is also out of hand by the half.

Prediction: Michigan covers
Predicted Final Score: Michigan 38, Minnesota 17
Final Score: Michigan 28, Minnesota 14
Prediction: RIGHT

#1 Ohio State (4-0) @ #13 Iowa (4-0):
Vegas Says: Ohio State -7

Ahh, finally we have a game! Two ranked teams, ESPN College Gameday headed to Iowa City, and both Rose Bowl and potential National Championship implications. On the one side, we’ve got Iowa’s stifling defense, complemented with a scrappy QB and a determined– if not experienced– offense. On the other side, we’ve got an OSU offense capable of scoring from anywhere on the field at any time, complemented with a scrappy, talented– if not experienced– defense. This is coupled with a night game in Kinnick Stadium, which is not exactly a “friendly” place to play. So how will it turn out? Well, I simply haven’t completely bought into Iowa yet this year. I don’t know if they have the receivers to do it, and the loss of Greenway and Hodge on defense is going to hurt against an ultra-talented offense like Ohio State’s. And I know better than to think Troy Smith is going to walk into Kinnick Stadium even a bit intimidated. If Iowa knows what’s good for them, they’ll try to jam RB Albert Young directly into the OSU defense (as Texas should have done). But I don’t think it will be enough. OSU has the answers this year, and I don’t think anyone except Michigan has what it takes to run with them.

Prediction: Ohio State covers
Predicted Final Score: Ohio State 23, Iowa 13
Final Score: Ohio State 37, Iowa 17
Prediction: RIGHT

Purdue (4-0) @ #12 Notre Dame (3-1):
Vegas Says: Notre Dame -14

Purdue has been described as “the worst 4-0 team in the country”. So be it. I’ll be happy if next week they’re described as the “worst 5-0 team in the country”. I don’t care about rankings. Purdue is only one of 4 undefeated teams in the Big Ten, and the only unranked one. This team has its warts, but it’s a scrappy team that plays all-out. Notre Dame, however, is probably the most overrated 3-1 team in the country. They’ve squeaked by Georgia Tech, beat an ailing Penn State, got blown out by Michigan, and squeaked by a Michigan State team who gifted them the game. And we’re looking straight into third-straight rivalry game for Notre Dame. I posted my preview of the game, and not a lot has changed. If Purdue wins the turnover battle, I think they might win this game. But Painter has shown himself to be a bit interception-prone this year, and nobody knows how this team will play on the road. Purdue, if they cough up the ball, could lose it big. That being said, Brady Quinn shows a different side when he’s pressured, and Anthony Spencer has already had the pleasure of planting him into the turf. Purdue’s defense just might force a turnover or two. I worry about how damaging this game might be to my weekend if I get too hopeful, but I just can’t help it.

In all reality, there’s far too much emotion riding on this game for me to predict a winner. So I’ve got no final score for you. But unless Purdue is -2 in the turnover battle, they’re going to keep this game close. I have a feeling they’ll be playing on pure heart, but then again, that might elevate them to the next level. Either way, I think this will be a much better game than -14 points.

Prediction: Purdue beats the spread
Final Score: Notre Dame 35, Purdue 21
Prediction: NO DECISION

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A few more hours, and I’ll be put to the test. Frankly, I don’t care if I go 1-5 against the spread, and 0-5 straight up, as long as Purdue beats the spread and wins. But I hope to do a lot better than that, and redeem my lackluster performance of weeks 1 and 2.

UPDATE: So, I went 5-0 against the spread, 5-0 straight up. The Purdue game didn’t go as planned, but at least they equalled the spread, so the pick is basically a tie.

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Purdue Rush O vs ND’s Rush D:

Advantage Purdue. ND’s line is pretty good, but their linebackers are not. MSU, PSU, and Michigan were able to move the ball on the ground. With the one-two punch of Kory Sheets & Jaycen Taylor, and the hopes that the passing game can force their safeties onto their heels a bit, I think we’ll be ahead in this one.

Purdue Pass O vs ND’s Pass D:

Advantage Purdue— *IF* Curtis Painter shows up. We definitely have the receivers to torch their D. Their LB’s can’t cover Keller, and if we can get Orton back to 100% after his hip pointer, the spread of Bryant, Orton, Lymon and Keller will be great. They’ve been shown by both Michigan and MSU to be vulnerable to the pass. But to do it, Painter has to come up big in this very big game.

ND Rush O vs Purdue Rush D:

Even. Frankly, I’ve never thought Darius Walker was all that good, and both Michigan and MSU bottled him up. However, Michigan has one of the best Front 7’s in college football, and while we’re starting to come together, we’re not at that level. Walker can probably gain 80-120 yards on us, but I don’t see him being able to run down our throats.

ND Pass O vs Purdue Pass D:

Advantage ND. Simply put, their receivers are bigger and more experienced that our DB’s. I was happy to see TE Anthony Fasano graduate, but their replacement TE came up big against Michigan State. The only way to match up against that passing attack is going to be to get Brady Quinn off his rhythm, and to do that, we need to put him on his back. We’ll need to bring the blitz, and I hope to see at least 2-3 sacks. Our best weapon is to make Quinn throw the ball inaccurately, because our DB’s can’t match up with the receivers.

Special teams:

Advantage Purdue (slight). Purdue’s been pretty solid in the kicking and special teams game, so I’m going to give us the edge there. Notre Dame has missed some field goals and extra points, and surprisingly Zbikowski has been fumbling some punts.

Intangibles:

Advantage ND. First, the game is at South Bend, not an easy place to play. Second, Painter hasn’t won on the road (I can say I’m glad Tiller gave him the experience @Wis and @PSU last year though), and this team may be young enough to get rattled with an aggressive crowd. Third, Weis is a very aggressive coach. It could be his downfall, but our players can’t be sure that stopping ND on third down will be enough. And when you make a big third-down stop and then they line up with the offense on 4th, how easy is it, emotionally, to get up and do it again?

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Final Result:

I see ND scoring 14 points based on our defensive mistakes, since we have some young DB’s that haven’t had to face anything like receivers Jeff Snuffaluffagus and Rhema McKnight. Based on the rest of their offense, they can score another 14-21. I see their score being in the low 30’s. So the question is whether Purdue can match that. It’s not going to be easy, because we’re going to have to execute extremely well– on the road in a hostile environment– to match that.

I think two metrics are going to define this game. Third down conversions and turnovers. Personally, I don’t even think big plays are going to be a big metric, because both offenses will have them. The key is going to be the crucial stops. If Purdue converts well (> 65%) on third down and wins the turnover battle, I think we can take this game. If we don’t, we will get beat.

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Miami (OH) (0-3) @ Syracuse (1-2)
Vegas Says: Syracuse -7

I have to admit, my first thought in this game was “Syracuse is a favorite?!” I mean, they beat Illinois, but I think my high school team could beat Illinois. But then, Miami is 0-3, with a losses to Northwestern, Purdue, and Kent St. But looking at this, I still just can’t figure it out. Syracuse isn’t putting up offensive yardage, only played Iowa close because Drew Tate was injured, and is getting beaten on defense. They may be 7 point favorites, but I just don’t see how they can cover. Miami has had a rough couple games, but I don’t see them going 0-4.

Prediction: Miami beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Miami 28, Syracuse 17
Final Score: Syracuse 34, Miami 14
Prediction: WRONG

Air Force (0-1) @ Wyoming (1-2)
Vegas Says: Wyoming -1

This is a tough one. Wyoming has a blowout over Utah St, followed by respectable losses to Virginia and Boise State, who are decent programs. Air Force has only played one game, but they nearly defeated ranked Tennessee, who blew Cal out of the water and lost a close one to Florida. First things first, I have to consider Air Force a better team based purely on how they played Tennessee. But something tells me that’s just not enough to base a pick on. So let’s look at the stats. In their one game, Air Force gained and gave up about 400 yards. Tennessee has been putting up lots of yards, so I won’t fault their defense for allowing so many. And their offense deserves credit for gaining 400 on Tennessee, above Tennessee’s average for the year. But on the other side of the ball, Wyoming has only allowed an average of 193 yards/game in their three games. They haven’t scored much, but they’ve held some good offenses to low yardage. So my pick? I still have to go with Air Force. They’ve scored 4 TD’s in one game against an SEC powerhouse, while Wyoming has scored 6 TD’s in 3 games against 2 WAC teams and an ACC patsy. I think Air Force looked far more impressive in their loss than anything Wyoming has shown all year.

Prediction: Air Force beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Air Force 17, Wyoming 13
Final Score: Air Force 31, Wyoming 24
Prediction: RIGHT

#12 Notre Dame (2-1) @ Michigan State (3-0)
Vegas Says: Notre Dame -3

This, as usual with any Notre Dame team, is an emotional game for me. I have watched as MSU has owned ND in recent history, culminating in an exciting overtime victory last year. When MSU planted their flag on the turf at Notre Dame, they were throwing down a gauntlet with today in mind. On paper, when the MSU offense is clicking, they’re absolutely unstoppable. On paper, the ND offense hasn’t exactly excited this year. Defense, both teams may be good, but not great, and MSU doesn’t have the front seven to punish Brady Quinn the way Michigan did. Perhaps that might explain why there’s a 59-point over/under in this game. Looking it over, I think two factors are at play. If the weather is okay, this game becomes a shootout, with firepower on both sides. I give a slight edge to MSU in that case, since QB Drew Stanton is a proven force both in the air and on the ground when he’s playing with confidence, and he’s carrying some swagger this year. If the weather goes south, I have to think the MSU running game blows the doors off overrated Darius Walker and Notre Dame, and MSU wins. So either way, I think MSU wins. If it’s a dry day, it’s going to be a major shootout. If it’s a wet day, MSU pounds them on the ground.

PS – Though I love to watch ND lose, I actually think I’d prefer to see them win. Purdue plays them next weekend, and if they lose to MSU, they’ll be desperate to beat Purdue to salvage their season. If they beat MSU, the pressure is off, and Purdue might show up to shock them. So it’s a game where my heart and my head are at odds…

Prediction: MSU beats the spread
Predicted Final Score (based on bad weather): Michigan State 27, Notre Dame 17
Final Score: Notre Dame 40, Michigan State 37
Prediction: NO DECISION

#24 Penn State (2-1) @ #1 Ohio State (3-0)
Vegas says: Ohio State -17

Again, a tough pick. I have no doubt that OSU will win this game. They have too much experienced talent on offense, and some proven talent on defense, to lose. Penn State is replacing far too many players on both sides of the ball, particularly their incredible QB Michael Robinson, their OL, and most of the DL and secondary. Ohio State is firing all over on offense, and while they’ve got some vulnerability against the run, their defense looks solid. But 17 points is a big line… Again, weather may be a factor. On a dry day, Ohio State is going to attack Penn State’s inexperienced defensive backs, and Ted Ginn and Anthony Gonzalez have huge days. Penn State didn’t prove they could pass on Notre Dame, who has a much worse defense than OSU, so I dont’ see them competing if this game goes to the air. But, if the game is played in the mud and muck, Ohio State knows they can win without airing it out. They’ll pound Antonio Pittman all day long, but may not win big. So my prediction will be that in the bad weather, OSU plays a controlled running game and pounds the ball at PSU. If the game goes dry, I’ll say that OSU, knowing Jim Tressel, slows down once they have a 14-point lead, and starts running the ball, making their beating of the spread a question. Either way, I worry that not enough points will be scored to really justify a 17-point margin.

Prediction: Penn State beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: OSU 28, PSU 17
Final Score: OSU 28, PSU 6
PREDICTION: WRONG

Minnesota (2-1) @ Purdue (3-0)
Vegas Says: Minnesota -3

Again, I’m worried about weather. Moreso here than anywhere else. Minnesota’s strength is their ground game, and Purdue, while being fairly balanced, has such incredible weapons in the vertical attack that we can’t allow a team to force us to be one-dimensional. And nobody knows how sophomore QB Curtis Painter will handle rain and wind. Looking at the offenses, I think Painter has a much stronger arm, so he’ll be better able to handle the rain and wind than Minnesota QB Bryan Cupito. If we have a rain game, I think Purdue can force Minnesota to purely run the ball, load the box to stop the run, and still have enough of a two-dimensional game to win. If it stays dry and with a calm wind, though, we’ve got an issue. Bryan Cupito isn’t a great passer, but he’s good enough to make Purdue pay if they try to load the box against the run. He’s got two big strong receivers to throw against Purdue’s inexperienced secondary, and could kill us with the playaction pass. You’ll notice I haven’t made much noise about the defenses. Well, neither team has one. This game will be high-scoring, even if it’s raining. The only consolation I have is that Purdue has shown strength in the face of adversity this year, and I hope that will continue.

Prediction: Purdue beats the spread
Predicted Final Score: Purdue 41, Minnesota 38 OT
Final Score: Purdue 27, Minnesota 21
Prediction: RIGHT

Wisconsin (3-0) @ #6 Michigan (3-0)
Vegas Says: Michigan -13.5

This may be the closest we’ll come this week to a defensive battle. Wisconsin is putting up huge numbers rushing, and so is Michigan. Wisconsin has a stout defense, allowing only about 200 yds/game, and Michigan is doing the same. Neither team has really needed to air it out this season, so I’m unsure how either team will do, but both appear to have very strong pass defenses. Wisconsin has beaten three below-average teams, and Michigan has beaten two below-average teams and blew out a team in a game that might have been competitive were it not for about 5 turnovers. This game should be a joy to watch. Working out the stats, both teams look good; Wisconsin a lot better than expected, and Michigan a lot better than last year. But looking at the numbers, I think Michigan’s rush defense is incredible. They won’t shut down Wisconsin, but should definitely contain them. Michigan is more two dimensional than Wisconsin, and should be able to keep Wisconsin’s defense honest, opening up the game for Mike Hart. I see this staying close for a half or so, and then Michigan blowing the doors off. Even if it’s a wet day, I think Michigan has the rushing and passing offense to score.

Prediction: Michigan covers
Predicted Final Score: Michigan 34, Wisconsin 17
Final Score: Michigan 27, Wisconsin 13
PREDICTION: RIGHT

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So, that’s it for this week. 5 teams beating the spread, one covering… So be it. Hopefully I’ll do a little better than some past weeks, though…

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Ball St @ Purdue:
Vegas Says: Purdue -17

This is a tough one. Purdue hasn’t exactly show they have a defense to go with their offense. They let Miami (OH) take them to OT last week, Purdue barely blocking the Miami go-ahead field goal to force OT. But I realized something as I looked over the game. Purdue threw three picks. Not only that, it was their first week running a 3-4 defense, so they had no game film to figure out their new scheme. And Miami had the time of possession battle dominated, holding the ball for over 38 minutes, thanks to all those turnovers. Purdue gave Miami every possible chance to win, and still held on.

This week, a few things will be different. First, and foremost, MLB George Hall will be back from injury. As a junior, he’s one of the old guys on this defense, and is both a vocal leader and hard hitter. He’s going to be helping the new guys read the offense, and his ability to play run defense will allow LB Dan Bick to roam a little more, disrupting plays everywhere. At the same time, the defensive backs are one week older. That may not seem like much, but they got torched by Miami last week, and since it’s 3 freshman and one JuCo transfer, they’re still in a learning stage. These kids have talent, and a week of watching film and talking to the coaches should help them understand what went wrong and how to make it right. They’re not going to suddenly become all-Big Ten guys, but they should be one more increment better than last week. And last, I think the offense should be a little less mistake-prone. Curtis Painter threw three interceptions because the Miami MLB was spying on him on throws across the middle. He also will have a week of game film to understand what he did wrong on those throws and make corrections. I’m predicting a game where Purdue is mostly turnover-free (I wouldn’t be surprised to see one), and the Purdue defense causes one, but more likely two. George Hall makes a statement, and Purdue wins handily.

Prediction: Purdue covers
Predicted final score: Purdue 45, Ball State 17
UPDATE: Final Score: Purdue 38, Ball State 28
Result: WRONG

Iowa State @ #16 Iowa:
Vegas Says: Iowa -13.5

Some of you will look at the fact that Iowa went into overtime against lowly Syracuse last week and say “WTF are they thinking giving them 13.5??” Well, the Syracuse game was played without Iowa QB Drew Tate, who is the heart and soul of that team. Much like Drew Stanton is for Michigan State, Iowa only plays as well as Tate plays. Of course, they’re talented enough that with Tate on the bench, they still beat a bottom-feeder like Syracuse. Tate will be back from an abdominal strain this Saturday. But will he be 100%?

I don’t have to tell one blogger how important this game is, because he already knows. But for the rest of you, think of how much I hate Notre Dame. That’s how much these schools hate each other. This instate rivalry means nothing to their conference standings at the end of the year, but it’s a blood feud. Iowa was embarrassed last year, and is looking for retribution. And this game will be played @ Kinnick Stadium, not an easy place for a visitor.

This is a tough one. Iowa has a dominating defense. They should be able to hold ISU. But frankly, I think Tate isn’t 100% ready to play, I think this is a blood feud game, and while they may want retribution, I don’t think I’m going to give Iowa 13.5 points. ISU is a lot better than Syracuse, and unless Tate comes out swinging, this game is going to be a close one.

Prediction: Iowa State beats the spread
Predicted final score: Iowa 23, Iowa State 17
UPDATE: Final Score: Iowa 27, Iowa State 17
Result: RIGHT

Michigan State @ Pitt:
Vegas Says: Pitt -2.5

Another difficult pick. When MSU QB Drew Stanton is on, he’s unstoppable. Pitt looks like a decent team, with solid 3-touchdown wins over Virginia and Cincinnati, but isn’t putting up 500 offensive yds/game like MSU. MSU only beat Idaho 27-17, but then rebounded, routing Eastern Michigan 52-20. Is Pitt for real? Does MSU have momentum from their destruction of a patsy?

My heart tells me MSU takes this one. Behind the senior leadership of Drew Stanton, they should be able to roll up points. But then I have to ask myself one question: have they proved themselves yet? Pitt has beaten two BCS conference teams, has done so convincingly, proving in both games that they could put up points AND play defense. Michigan state has squeaked by Idaho (a WAC patsy) and let Eastern Michigan, who got soundly defeated by fellow MAC team Ball State, score 20 points. There’s a part of me that says MSU is going to break out and score some serious points. But without proof, I’m going to have to give this one to Pitt in a barn-burner.

Prediction: Pitt covers
Predicted final score: Pitt 42, MSU 37
UPDATE: Final Score: MSU 38, Pitt 23
Result: WRONG

#15 Oklahoma @ #18 Oregon
Vegas Says: Oregon -5

Oregon opened the season blowing the doors off Stanford, but then had to rely on trickeration to beat WAC powerhouse Fresno State. Oklahoma didn’t destroy U of Alabama-Birmingham, and but then defeated Washington handily in week 2. Like usual for the Pac-10, Oregon is putting up obscene yardage on offense, and giving up quite a bit on D. Oklahoma, on the other hand, is running the ball down the throats of their opponents on the back of Adrian Peterson, yet is giving up more rushing yards on defense than Peterson is gaining!

This is a fairly evenly-matched battle. Looking it over, though, I have to give Oregon the edge. They’re at home, which is worth 3 points. They’re gaining mad rushing yards, which should continue to work against Oklahoma. And Oklahoma hasn’t yet proved that they can threaten with the pass, so Oregon can hope to keep their offense one-dimensional, especially with Oregon’s ability to defend the pass. Oregon wins this one, not by a huge margin, but enough to cover.

Prediction: Oregon covers
Predicted final score: Oregon 31, Oklahoma 24
UPDATE: Final Score: Oregon 34, Oklahome 33
Result: WRONG

#6 LSU @ #3 Auburn
Vegas Says: Auburn -3

I think the Tigers will win

Seriously, though, this is a tough one. Looking at the performance this year to date, both teams look like they’ve got stellar offenses and lock-down defenses. but delving into it, one asks “who have they played?”… Auburn shut out Mississippi State, but it’s possible Miss St won’t score an offensive point all year, the way they’ve been playing. They did let Washington State score 14, but then, Washington State hung 56 on Idaho, so that might have been a good defensive effort. LSU beat both Arizona and Louisiana-Lafayette by identical scores, 45-3. Arizona may be in the PAC-10, and has actually won a game, but it certainly isn’t due to offensive prowess. And Louisiana-Lafayette is a Sun Belt team. So I think these teams may have lock-down defenses.

So I’m going to pick this game based on the offense. Both starting QB’s look to be very competent. Both teams have some very talented receiving corps. Where do I see a difference? At running back. Auburn has Kenny Irons, who is a go-to guy. LSU appears to be doing the running-back-by-committee deal, but without any real standouts. And Auburn’s Irons is doing this behind an offensive line who has already allowed 5 sacks on the year. I think Auburn tries to wear down LSU’s defense on the ground, and wins a tight battle.

Prediction: Auburn covers
Predicted final score: Auburn 13, LSU 9
UPDATE: Final Score: Auburn 7, LSU 3
Result: RIGHT

#11 Michigan @ #2 Notre Dame:
Vegas Says: Notre Dame -6

Michigan should dominate the line-of-scrimmage, whether on offense or defense. Michigan will attack Brady Quinn like crazy. Michigan should be able to shut down Darius Walker. Michigan’s defensive backfield is probably the best in the Big Ten, and should be able to contain ND’s receivers. Offensively, Michigan should be able to run the ball at the ND defense at will. And Chad Henne and Michigan’s receivers, while not as strong as ND’s receivers, should be able to outclass ND’s poor secondary. Michigan should win this game.

But they won’t. Troy Smith of OSU comes out and win’s big road games. Chad Henne doesn’t. Chad Henne, through 2005, was about 10-3 at home, and 6-5 on the road. And comparing Lloyd Carr to Charlie Weis is like comparing Paris Hilton to Bill Ford. One has gotten somewhere and squandered it, and the other has shown that they deserve at least some acclaim. This game is going to be a defensive battle, up until the 4th quarter. Notre Dame will be leading, with Chad Henne in position to come back and win it. Henne will fail, and while Notre Dame will win, they won’t cover.

Prediction: Michigan beats the spread
Predicted final score: Notre Dame 20, Michigan 17
UPDATE: Final Score: Michigan 47, Notre Dame 21
Result: RIGHT

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